Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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4262. OracleDeAtlantis
4:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
There's something subtly ominous about an invest that's so far south it's half cut off on the Atlantic imagery.



One of the more provocative comments that I have heard here.

Speaking of something that is off the radar. A new comet has just entered the heart of Perseus. ... Clash of the Titans? ...





Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
4261. wfyweather
3:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
well, within an hour we find out if nhc went code red. i think they probably are still at orange. 30 to 40 percent
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422
4260. wxmobilejim
3:56 PM GMT on June 13, 2010

Member Since: May 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
4259. StadiumEffect
3:51 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting scottsvb:


This isnt close to being a TD.. we need a CDO over the center and persistance for 6-12hrs

A CDO is not necessary for clasification. Convection has been steadily maintained for almost 12 hours now (apart from the few hours of warmed cloud tops). What the NHC is waiting on is the development of a closed circulation and maybe one which is less broad. Depression status likely sometime today, or early tomorrow if this trend continues.
4258. serialteg
3:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
I would advise anyone wanting to know more of the upper environment that is expected as it nears the islands to take a look at the GFS 200 mb analysis.


wats up weather?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
4257. Skyepony (Mod)
3:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
Skyepony,

What you fail to understand is that actual satellite images is not supporting this second low and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, actually satellite obs will prevail.



Looking at RGB ~6 hrs ago (time of windsat pass) I see a 2nd elongated surface circulation ~7n37W.. even most the models showed 2 areas of surface vorticity..they are consolidating right now toward one. It's going as I've expected for a few days now. Give it a little time, it's not quite a TD yet.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
4256. scottsvb
3:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting stillwaiting:




Yea I was saying that,and... I stick by me story!!!!,I live by da beach boooooooy...lol;)....seriously nhc makes the call but if their were surface obs under 92L it would have been classified already,just my opinion but based on sat presentation those are my thought!!!!


This isnt close to being a TD.. we need a CDO over the center and persistance for 6-12hrs
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1693
4255. Levi32
3:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
New blog is up.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
4254. cchsweatherman
3:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


There is no CDO, only curved spiral banding arcing into the center. Central convection has died off since last night. I expect a rebuilding later today after we get through diurnal min.


Should be very interesting to see how much convection builds overnight now that it has developed some nice low level structure.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
4253. stillwaiting
3:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents:
12 hours ago many were screaming, "it's a TD!", or it will be a TD for sure by 11AM. Now, it's 11AM and it's not a TD, and we still have many apoplectic with the NHC refusal to call it a TD yet. This will go on all day, and night, and perhaps into tomorrow.
.
.
We see this every year. Every "L" that comes down the pike and the board starts screaming TD. Why don't we start naming these hybrid systems, when they're in the stage betwen "L" and TD, let's call them a WUWU. This is WUWU1.




Yea I was saying that,and... I stick by me story!!!!,I live by da beach boooooooy...lol;)....seriously nhc makes the call but if their were surface obs under 92L it would have been classified already,just my opinion but based on sat presentation those are my thought!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
4252. txjac
3:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Thanks again.
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2568
4251. Cavin Rawlins
3:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
I would advise anyone wanting to know more of the upper environment that is expected as it nears the islands to take a look at the GFS 200 mb analysis.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
4250. Levi32
3:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
4249. cchsweatherman
3:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
Skyepony,

What you fail to understand is that actual satellite images is not supporting this second low and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, actually satellite obs will prevail.



Agreed. I'm one of few that doesn't like to use scatterometer data since, at least in my experience and opinion, it becomes easily contaminated by rain, has limited resolution, and doesn't always match what satellite imagery and surface observations show. When analyzing disturbances, I much prefer surface observations and/or satellite imagery to scatterometer data.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
4248. serialteg
3:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting txjac:
I have a question and apologize in advance if it's stupid ..

Does a storm try to move out of sheer areas? Like if a storm is moving northwest and the sheer is high to the north will it plow its way west to avoid sheer?

Thanks in advance


I'll give it a shot and say no... but I will say this: when hurricanes come way of Puerto Rico, they sometimes nudge out after beelining for the coast. The East Coast has a 4500ft mountain range, and we sometimes think that it has an effect on the canes...

I don't think they avoid shear, but if you want to get a clearer picture of where it's headed, use steering maps.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
4247. Cavin Rawlins
3:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
4246. MiamiHurricanes09
3:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Unless this thing is a anticyclonic cyclone, your arrows are whack.
LMAO! You get what I mean.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4245. indianrivguy
3:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I do, lol, my bad.


It's all good, just made me chuckle a little, I've done worse.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
4244. PanhandleChuck
3:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MrstormX:


There is some indication that moisture from the EPAC could spawn a BOC system but nothing at the moment.


Nothing right now... I'm just saying IMHO
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
4243. MiamiHurricanes09
3:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
SHIPS keeps 92L below 20 knots of shear throughout its lifetime.



* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922010 06/13/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 55 62 68 69 69 68 67 64
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 55 62 68 69 69 68 67 64
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 63 64 63 62 61

SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 10 14 19 16 15 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 4 -2 -1 -6 -4 -2 3
SHEAR DIR 52 98 83 12 36 181 206 201 251 258 292 239 257
SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 135 132 129 132 137 140 140 143 147 150
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 141 139 135 130 132 138 141 138 140 145 148
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 80 76 74 75 73 68 63 59 57 56 54 54 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 10 2 0 -5 -17 -24 -15 -19 -13 -7 2
200 MB DIV 126 149 143 127 104 91 46 27 -3 -7 -14 -7 19
LAND (KM) 1246 1240 1250 1277 1317 1309 1175 1060 952 900 867 801 591
LAT (DEG N) 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.4 8.9 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.8
LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.4 36.5 37.7 38.8 40.9 43.0 45.3 47.7 50.0 52.2 54.2 56.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 40 39 38 36 32 23 34 49 60 60 67 74 92

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4242. MrstormX
3:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
It's nice to watch 92L, however it is many days away from any type of landfall. Y'all need to look at the big picture and keep an eye on the BOC. Very possible for a disturbance to fire up down there in the next day or two


There is some indication that moisture from the EPAC could spawn a BOC system but nothing at the moment.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
4241. MrstormX
3:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
4240. PanhandleChuck
3:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Unless this thing is a anticyclonic cyclone, your arrows are whack.


LMAO
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
4239. MiamiHurricanes09
3:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting indianrivguy:


Okay, as long as you are sure.. I've never seen clockwise rotation in the northern hemisphere.
I do, lol, my bad.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4238. FLWeatherFreak91
3:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting cloud signature inside the red circle, looks to be the COC.

Unless this thing is a anticyclonic cyclone, your arrows are whack.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
4237. Levi32
3:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting leo305:
its definately almost a TD..

the CDO has developed over the center, and it's spinning clearly in the visible, compared to last night were we didn't know where the center was..


There is no CDO, only curved spiral banding arcing into the center. Central convection has died off since last night. I expect a rebuilding later today after we get through diurnal min.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
4236. seflagamma
3:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
I don't know about you guys but the SSD floater is a bit too zoomed in for me. 92L is too big. I like this one better.


Thank you, put it up on one of my windows..
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40924
4235. stormwatcherCI
3:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2010



Sorry if this was posted already.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8420
4234. MrstormX
3:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
Skyepony,

What you fail to understand is that actual satellite images is not supporting this second low and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, actually satellite obs will prevail.



True, if you ever get a chance to looks at the ATCF files it is almost all satellite, and visual observations. With the occasional ASCAT/Windsat thrown in.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
4233. leo305
3:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
its definately almost a TD..

the CDO has developed over the center, and it's spinning clearly in the visible, compared to last night were we didn't know where the center was..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
4232. nrtiwlnvragn
3:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
4214. Skyepony

Windsat has a much bigger problem with rain since it is a passive scat. Also don't know how much to trust direction in cyclones since there has not been much work in using it with cyclones. Ascat also has directional issues with cyclones, since it only has 2 directional solutions for each gridpoint.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11251
4231. cchsweatherman
3:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Good morning folks! Must say that I'm quite impressed by Invest 92L this morning. In viewing satellite imagery, its becoming quite evident that this disturbance continues to become better organized as spiral banding continues to develop and rather impressive outflow develops, especially poleward. I will agree with some here that the circulation needs to become better defined, but it appears to be getting there. Definitely appears that we will see our first tropical depression, and quite possibly Tropical Storm Alex, sometime during the next 48 hours.

I will try and update my website at the CCHS Weather Center later this afternoon.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
4230. indianrivguy
3:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think so, lol.


Okay, as long as you are sure.. I've never seen clockwise rotation in the northern hemisphere.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
4229. Gumbogator
3:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Nothing ever forms that low in latitude. It'll have to get to 8.5 deg lat or higher. It is quite impressive thus far. My heat index on the bayou is supposed to get to 108 degrees today.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
4228. MiamiHurricanes09
3:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
I don't know about you guys but the SSD floater is a bit too zoomed in for me. 92L is too big. I like this one better.
Me too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4227. serialteg
3:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
steering

Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
4226. txjac
3:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
I have a question and apologize in advance if it's stupid ..

Does a storm try to move out of sheer areas? Like if a storm is moving northwest and the sheer is high to the north will it plow its way west to avoid sheer?

Thanks in advance
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2568
4225. MiamiHurricanes09
3:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4224. Cavin Rawlins
3:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Skyepony,

What you fail to understand is that actual satellite images is not supporting this second low and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, actually satellite obs will prevail.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
4223. all4hurricanes
3:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents:
12 hours ago many were screaming, "it's a TD!", or it will be a TD for sure by 11AM. Now, it's 11AM and it's not a TD, and we still have many apoplectic with the NHC refusal to call it a TD yet. This will go on all day, and night, and perhaps into tomorrow.
.
.
We see this every year. Every "L" that comes down the pike and the board starts screaming TD. Why don't we start naming these hybrid systems, when they're in the stage betwen "L" and TD, let's call them a WUWU. This is WUWU1.

I don't remember people saying that, this blob is promising but it will take time I think next D-max is the earliest it will be upgraded but more likely tomorrow
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2374
4222. Levi32
3:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
I don't know about you guys but the SSD floater is a bit too zoomed in for me. 92L is too big. I like this one better.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
4221. PanhandleChuck
3:32 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
It's nice to watch 92L, however it is many days away from any type of landfall. Y'all need to look at the big picture and keep an eye on the BOC. Very possible for a disturbance to fire up down there in the next day or two
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
4220. serialteg
3:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
greetings. looks like the season got the switch on with a kick.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
4219. MiamiHurricanes09
3:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents:
12 hours ago many were screaming, "it's a TD!", or it will be a TD for sure by 11AM. Now, it's 11AM and it's not a TD, and we still have many apoplectic with the NHC refusal to call it a TD yet. This will go on all day, and night, and perhaps into tomorrow.
.
.
We see this every year. Every "L" that comes down the pike and the board starts screaming TD. Why don't we start naming these hybrid systems, when they're in the stage betwen "L" and TD, let's call them a WUWU. This is WUWU1.
Um, 92L is not a hybrid system, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4218. MechEngMet
3:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Is "+" and "-" working for anyone else, or has admin restricted the use of 'up-ding' & 'down-ding'?

Anyone, ... anyone.... Bueler?
Member Since: April 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
4217. btwntx08
3:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
i do by tonight it will lol watch urself lol
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
4216. MiamiHurricanes09
3:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
Circulation continues to increase

And that's 06z, the 12z should be even stronger.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4215. CosmicEvents
3:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
12 hours ago many were screaming, "it's a TD!", or it will be a TD for sure by 11AM. Now, it's 11AM and it's not a TD, and we still have many apoplectic with the NHC refusal to call it a TD yet. This will go on all day, and night, and perhaps into tomorrow.
.
.
We see this every year. Every "L" that comes down the pike and the board starts screaming TD. Why don't we start naming these hybrid systems, when they're in the stage betwen "L" and TD, let's call them a WUWU. This is WUWU1.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5640
4214. Skyepony (Mod)
3:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
4150. Skyepony 10:58 AM AST on June 13, 2010

As Drak pointed be careful when using windsat especially with cloud cover. Hold for ASCAT.


Quikscat, ASCAT, Windsat...all have or had in the dead quikscat case problems under heavy rains, mostly in determining wind speed..these rain contaminated vectors are marked in black & their speed is what should be discounted. If the rain is so heavy direction is affected, usually no direction of wind is noted..I don't see any reason to think there was not a 2nd elongated surface circulation ~7N 37W, 850vort backs it up.. Windsat is greatly inferior for covering much less of the earth each day than Ascat but worth looking at when it makes a catch. Windsat showed the eastern elongated circulation (same rain contaminated) last night when Ascat only got a partial.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
4213. MrstormX
3:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Convection has greatly lessened since last night. Approaching diurnal min right now.



Less convection, but better structure wise.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
4212. Cavin Rawlins
3:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Circulation continues to increase

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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