Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Please!!!!
It hasn't even formed yet!!
lol
So I see!
Still as a tomb here. But looking at the loops, I could still get lucky.
That's some INTENSE stuff to the southwest though.
Would rather not be under that one LOL
Alot of rain over the next week or 2..
Tim...Send a weak TS to so. Fla. Friday night, July 2. Don't feel like working that night. :)
Please don't! Sting performing in an AMPHITHEATRE with full orchestra that week. Would not be pretty!!
Bro that it messed up....i will call you in sick for being Mentally disabled as you would qualify for wishing for something like that......LMAO....funny!
.. massive mental breakdown.
Also btw, I got a question for you all. What was 1-5 the most terrifying experience you felt about a particular hurricane in the entire time you've been on WU.
1) Knowing that the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic was coming straight for me. Hurricane Wilma
2) Hurricane Katrina, for many reasons.
3) Hurricane Felix's landfall, a second category 5 landfall just a few weeks after Dean.
4) Hurricane Gustav and Ray Nagin's 'Storm of the Century' speech.
5) Hurricane Dean's landfall in the Yucatan.
Are you talking about the upper level ridge or the possible tropical cyclone?
The upper level ridge will inevitably form, as surface convergence increases over the area. The models (excluding the GFS)have been fairly consistent about tropical cyclone formation over the area.
Bahamas system:
June 25, 2010
Stormchaser, isn't the DGEX a high resolution version of the GFS?
Very scary, but as already mentioned that's a non-Tropical model and the least likely to ever come to pass.
Isabel gained cat 5 status over 27-28°C water... Why do you think Cat 5's can only form over extremely hot water? In truth its the surrounding environmental conditions that dictates wether a system can reach those strengths.
It's an extension of the NAM run on GFS conditions.
Pretty poor model.
If this year truly is going to be the worst since 2005.. often.
Lol, yes since it is based on the NAM.
June 20, 2010 at 4:00 p.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Strong Tropical wave move across Jamaica late tomorrow.
Comment… Tropical Wave and associated showers and thunderstorms expected to start affecting the island
late tomorrow.
24 HOURS FORECAST
Tonight… Isolated thunderstorms are likely over northeast parishes.
Tomorrow… Partly cloudy morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorm especially during late afternoon.
3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Tue… Partly cloudy morning, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over most parishes
Wed.. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers
Thur… scattered showers and thunderstorms across the island.
Regionally… Trough and Tropical Waves over the central Caribbean through the week to generate unstable
conditions.
lpb
FULL IMAGE:
Sorta looks like Jeanne
FULL IMAGE:
JFV!
Just for entertainment purposes only lol
Cool to see on such a high resolution model.
I think he might be wondering what the models are seeing that is causing them to take it to the Bahamas.
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