Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on June 20, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1563 - 1513

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55Blog Index

Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Those are some pretty beastly SSTs, I'm not going to lie...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I gradumated high school when I was 17, he obviously doesnt know me lol

someone who posts about weather 0% of the time on this blog like he does, should never talk about others


They shouldnt even be on here.

Its a weather blog...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15916
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Have you checked shear maps lately???? It has dropped...significantly.


that is what he is saying
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7804
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
Tampa, BOP? Blow out preventer?


YEPPERS the top part is now leaning 4ft or tilted 4ft....how would you think that has occured......think!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Your time is limited...


I gradumated high school when I was 17, he obviously doesnt know me lol

someone who posts about weather 0% of the time on this blog like he does, should never talk about others
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7804
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15916
BOP flops over 4ft and possible storm in gulf coming. Are they playing into natures hands or what
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So far, the CMC and ECMWF have been fairly consistent in developing something in the Caribbean about 4-7 days out. Each model is also fairly consistent with their timeframe/progression of the storm. However, there is no agreement in timeframe between the two models. There has also been very little consistency in track between not only the two models, but also the different runs from the same model. All in all, it'll be something to watch out for down the road, although it is far too early to be able to tell what is going to go down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting YourCommonSense:


Funny, Probably because that the same exact phrase your high school teacher said once you dropped out.



Your time is limited...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15916
1550. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well I'm off to bed, got to wake up at 6AM. Night all!


Night!

Quoting HurricaneFCast:
I'm willing to predict forecasts will suffer this season as a result of the loss of the QuikSCAT.
ASCAT just isn't the same.. it only picks up about 60% of the area that QuikSCAT did, which obviously increases the likelihood of a missed TC.


I know, a replacement shouldn't come until 2013 or something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tampa, BOP? Blow out preventer?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm sorry but I can understand why the EURO has a hurricane in the GOM.A low forms in the WC, low wind shear, and above average sea temps. It';s a no brainer, if shear continues to drop, remain low in the GOM, expect a Hurricane, don't doubt it. Those temps are extremely high out there. Expect a Hurricane to form IF wind shear lowers as predicted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1547. cg2916
If any of these systems (ex-92L "pre-93L" or the Central America AOI) can get in the right conditions, it could take off, or at least get Alex. Too early to tell, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm willing to predict forecasts will suffer this season as a result of the loss of the QuikSCAT.
ASCAT just isn't the same.. it only picks up about 60% of the area that QuikSCAT did, which obviously increases the likelihood of a missed TC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well I'm off to bed, got to wake up at 6AM. Night all!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting RecordSeason:
The riser and what's left of the BOP has definitely suffered some sort of major erosion or other failure recently. The flow is way worse now than it was before they even started syphoning...
Quoting HurricaneFCast:


What is changing, Tampa? Can you fill us in?


The BOP has shifted and tilted 4ft over the last few hours.....this is really getting really bad now....I hope you all understand what a tilt of 4ft means.....NOT GOOD AT ALL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1540. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's not the point. He is just demonstrating the genesis. Forward the model 100 hours and then it will be much stronger.


I got that, I was just pointing out it hadn't taken off yet, which of course, it takes a while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
what is the link to the ECMWF ensemble?

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15916
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15916
what is the link to the ECMWF ensemble?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7804
1535. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah, the GFS really needs that upgrade ASAP.

Speaking of the MJO, wasnt there a way to see the MJO maps with the Gulf/ NO Caribbean sector as well?


Not sure about that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1534. cg2916
Quoting rcmansour:
LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC IS WHERE ALL THE ACTION IS> I GUESS THE "BUSY" SEASON is in the wrong ocean


EPAC always goes first, it just had an upward MJO, and we're not supposed to have anything yet, most hyperactive seasons don't start until late July.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
Have you all looked at the live video feed lately ......WE HAVE PROBLEMS coming big time it appears....you all need to take a look. PatRap has been a great job of keeping everyone up to date on this horrible event that is about to get 100 times worse!


What is changing, Tampa? Can you fill us in?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1532. JRRP
Quoting CycloneBoy:
Good Evening Folks, just got back from cruise and went right through the disturbance...San Juan PR was just a complete mess. Lot's of close strike lightning strikes and torrential rain all day. Poor folks in Haiti.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone watching the season finale of Treme? They're doing a big flashback to what everyone was doing the day before Katrina.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Cant predict weather in 9 days

Just speculation at this point. Plenty of time to watch what is going on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:


I did notice that, no closed isobars, though.
That's not the point. He is just demonstrating the genesis. Forward the model 100 hours and then it will be much stronger.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1528. 7544
looks like rain gets to so fla on wends from wave one and continues on as wave two approches local mets are saying to much shear for either of those to develope . arent we glad we have great info on thi s blog .
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
1527. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting cg2916:
Is there a link between the ENSO and NAO?


Here's an indepth power point. I think it went...

NAO=white noise (interseasonal varibility) + ENSO

There is also a delay from ENSO to NAO & when you see the heat flowing from the EPAC up through the Caribbean & on NE you wouldn't expect it to have an Effect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1526. Drakoen
The ECMWF ensemble mean show a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1524. cg2916
Quoting Hurricanes101:


1011mb low is the start of the development most likely


I did notice that, no closed isobars, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ouch that hurt so bad :(


anyway another bites the dust lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7804
1522. xcool
Baltimorebirds .wave train Toot toot!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Drakoen:


GFSOP having problems with the MJO seems the GEFS is grasping the situation.


Yeah, the GFS really needs that upgrade ASAP.

Speaking of the MJO, wasnt there a way to see the MJO maps with the Gulf/ NO Caribbean sector as well?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15916
Quoting rcmansour:
LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC IS WHERE ALL THE ACTION IS> I GUESS THE "BUSY" SEASON is in the wrong ocean


This happens in June, EPAC always gets going first, no big deal really
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7804
Quoting RitaEvac:
Cant predict weather in 9 days
No, but you can get a pretty good perspective of what you're going to see.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC IS WHERE ALL THE ACTION IS> I GUESS THE "BUSY" SEASON is in the wrong ocean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If I got this correct this is what's going to play out. We know that its pretty likely that some sort of low is going to develop, just don't know the strength.

That tropical wave that the NHC gives a 10% chance of development will interact with a trough and form a disturbance aka the next invest '93L'. The disturbance will move at a relatively slow north-westward pace and intensify over the high TCHP and the high SSTs. Currently an anticyclone is situated where that '93L' will develop, so that is going to help highly with inflow so that it can 'breath' if you will. This appears to me a classical June/July setup.. only with conditions in the Caribbean being exceptionally good for this time of year. What disturbs me, even though that its far out is that this might become a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, which in some areas is already breaching the high 80s in water temps. A hurricane in the gulf so early in the game would be a telling sign. Right now however, we need to watch for consistency. If the models are all showing this time tomorrow the same system if not stronger than you can almost be assured that at least a well organized disturbance is going to come out of this.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24134
Cant predict weather in 9 days
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:
well hey there you been lurking for a while? Just have not seen you on lately....

Taco :o)

Sure have, alot of lurking and occasional posting, but still mostly lurking.

Quoting cg2916:


A couple of models have been consistent with this, may bear watching. That comes from the Panama disturbance, right?

From what I can tell, yes. It appears that that particular run takes some of the leftover energy from 92L and merges it with something in the vicinity of Central America and develops it a couple of days down the road.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1563 - 1513

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.