Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 — Blog Index
Yea i seen you saying that but i've heard both sides contradicting that...Who knows i will just wait till we have a concrete system thats why i hate models lol
Could be stormTOP or Stormkat(or so called, debbykat)
But I think the one they circled is over Venezuela or at least influencing the weather there.
NOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND ADJACENT WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
It should pick up on it eventually.
Hurricane Katrina?
I went trolling the other day, caught 2 barracudas, 2 bonitos, 1 kingfish (24lbs - nice one) and 1 blackfin tuna. :)
Yeah i was under the impression that the AOI in which yall speak of heading to Florida on the CMC was the same one the ECMWF had heading into the Central gulf but now i can see they're going to be two different systems per the models
It sure is, as sweet as a tenor pan playing a lullaby... lol
Cool. You guys there make sure and keep that thing turned on and I'll pay the bill.
What did she say?
sounds good to me!
Nice King!
i would keep that in WU E Mail
BEST .
:} :}
LINK
I've grown up eh? Tried that statement with my ex-girlfriend...it doesnt work :)
WOW THAT IS SOME LOW SHEAR!! whatevers out there will not have an issue with it. Upper level winds though have been pestering the invests from developing
LOL
Your not a troll, far from and I can vouch for this, but you do need to look at the NHC page. 0% for 92L, 10% for AOI off Virgin Islands going into the Caribbean. The reason they mentioned this was because several models are developing this into a tropical cyclone by Friday, most of the reliable ones.
they give 2 areas a chance to develop and model consensus shows development this week in the Western Caribbean
Nicer in de pot, steam down with a butta sauce, and some okra fungi on de side... :)
Actually , i havent been trolling , i took a long hypothetical mental break from the blog and decided to purse my education. I AM NOT A TROLL.IVE NEVER TROLLED. I HAVE GROWN UP. and i do need glasses, my main provocative comment was stating "Chill its only june". yet you consider my credibility as if i had walked into a bank with a mask. everyone has a right for a second chance , and i belive i have grown up so i deserve it.If i had trolled i would have been permd banned. im sorry for my statement but i do not deserve such public outcry, i was simply stateting my false opinon. but the NHC currently gives no area in the atlantic a chance of development.
Thank you
whats that one word am looking for oh yes downcaster
OK, that's good!
But there are currently 2 areas in the Atlantic basin, which are listed as areas with potential.
Did she get banned?
thank you very very much hades
Well she also said that StormW was afraid of competition from a woman.
Pay attention ECWMF AT 2.00AM
I remember you from those years. You were a troll back then. Maybe you have changed. I dunno.
yes
You makin me dribble, Man!
heheheh
Viewing: 1151 - 1201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 — Blog Index