Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on June 20, 2010

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The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting taco2me61:
well hey there you been lurking for a while? Just have not seen you on lately....

Taco :o)

Sure have, alot of lurking and occasional posting, but still mostly lurking.

Quoting cg2916:


A couple of models have been consistent with this, may bear watching. That comes from the Panama disturbance, right?

From what I can tell, yes. It appears that that particular run takes some of the leftover energy from 92L and merges it with something in the vicinity of Central America and develops it a couple of days down the road.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1506

Did you know 100% of your posts are pointless


Guess it isn't always the more you know lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1511. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh, well track seems pretty spot on to me considering forecasted steering.


I still don't think it'll be that intense.

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Wave train getting active again.


Gulf of Guinea is cooling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have you all looked at the live video feed lately ......WE HAVE PROBLEMS coming big time it appears....you all need to take a look. PatRap has been a great job of keeping everyone up to date on this horrible event that is about to get 100 times worse!
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1509. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Dang, I forgot to check the GFS ensembles. There it is lol

18z GFS Ensembles 84 hours:




GFSOP having problems with the MJO seems the GEFS is grasping the situation.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
Quoting cg2916:


Nothing.


1011mb low is the start of the development most likely
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Hurricanes101:


think he meant to he doesnt buy the track


Both
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1503. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:


think he meant to he doesnt buy the track
Oh, well track seems pretty spot on to me considering forecasted steering.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We already have the system(s) that it is developing, plus you have favorable conditions.


think he meant to he doesnt buy the track
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I find it very interesting that many NWS discussions from the Gulf mention a possible tropical development this far out.

Maybe they have nothing better to do? But all humor aside, it is quite interesting. I don't routinely check all of the discussions from around the Gulf, but every coastal WFO and even one inland one with Texas territory have mentioned possible development in their discussions lately.
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1499. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1498. cg2916
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ECMWF ensembles 72 hours:


Nothing.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


not buying into that
We already have the system(s) that it is developing, plus you have favorable conditions.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I agree.. I did the exact same thing when choosing my college, and I'm happy with it.. I still have my loyalty to FSU, and I support UM. I will say it's more difficult than you assume it will be to maintain your appreciation of the other school while you're attending another school. I wear UM t-shirts and support UM in sports, when I always assumed I'd never do such a thing. I won't ever stop supporting FSU, though, at the same time. Have to love being able to hop to South Beach or hit up Coconut Grove to blow off stress, haha.
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1495. cg2916
Quoting 1900hurricane:


Careful what you wish for! ECMWF 12Z @ 216 hours (9 days out, June 29th):



It's a long way out, but some of the NWS offices have already taken notice.


A couple of models have been consistent with this, may bear watching. That comes from the Panama disturbance, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:


Careful what you wish for! ECMWF 12Z @ 216 hours (9 days out, June 29th):



It's a long way out, but some of the NWS offices have already taken notice.
well hey there you been lurking for a while? Just have not seen you on lately....

Taco :o)
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Quoting 1900hurricane:


Careful what you wish for! ECMWF 12Z @ 216 hours (9 days out, June 29th):



It's a long way out, but some of the NWS offices have already taken notice.


not buying into that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ECMWF ensembles 72 hours:
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
I find it very interesting that many NWS discussions from the Gulf mention a possible tropical development this far out.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I went to the NHC when Dolly was making landfall. Pretty cool to see a 42' computer monitor with an AWIPS super hi-res visible image of her making landfall.
I wanted to put one of those in my bedroom after I saw it, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210233
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...CELIA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 100.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, it's just like a typical office with 20000 computer monitors all over the place. There are a lot of maps and stuff on the walls too.

Here is a pic of TAFB operations section.





I went to the NHC when Dolly was making landfall. Pretty cool to see a 42' computer monitor with an AWIPS super hi-res visible image of her making landfall.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1486. xcool
Relix .Who turned the switch on? //.no clue .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1485. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, it's just like a typical office with 20000 computer monitors all over the place. There are a lot of maps and stuff on the walls too.

Here is a pic of TAFB operations section.





Must be kinda cool to get to see all the forecasting and all that taking place.

I just now realized that the NHC in September 2005 must've been like that office in the Bing commercial, all stressed out with 2-3 storms at once.
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Good Evening Folks, just got back from cruise and went right through the disturbance...San Juan PR was just a complete mess. Lot's of close strike lightning strikes and torrential rain all day. Poor folks in Haiti.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Houston has only
received 0.81 inches for the month.

Rainfall deficits for the year are now
10.40 inches at hobby Airport...7.27 inches at Intercontinental Airport...6.16 inches at Galveston

Time for tropical system to get in Gulf and replenish our coast


Careful what you wish for! ECMWF 12Z @ 216 hours (9 days out, June 29th):



It's a long way out, but some of the NWS offices have already taken notice.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Yeah, Houston has been mostly dry and unseasonably hot lately.


this is 2 years in a row we've done this too
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Quoting fldude99:


Another idiotic comment from a Miami fan. What do you have against FSU sports? As a Floridian from the panhandle, my 1st team would be the noles, but I can't dislike the Gators or the canes. I see that a lot from people in S FL...maybe jealousy..who knows
Idiotic isn't the right word. We are rivals and I honestly hate FSU when it comes down to sports, but I can't let that interfere with a career.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
In a way that is true...


Completely out of line... has nothing to do with hurricanes or weather. I would request that we keep politics off the blog.
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1478. Relix
Who turned the switch on?
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Quoting cg2916:


Maybe not THAT much.



not THAT much as in not that much time to wait for 2 storms?

or that we wont see 2 storms?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Dang, I forgot to check the GFS ensembles. There it is lol

18z GFS Ensembles 84 hours:


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting Dropsonde:
00Z NAM has just come out and also likes the Caribbean development scenario, with a defined low pressure center showing up and taking shape. I know it is the NAM, but the point is model agreement.


NAM develops 92L (just SSE of jamaica) which is a non-feature at this point (forget naked swirl, it's barely a naked wave axis), if this happens (TD forming from 92L wave axis in next 60 hours) I will eat an all you can eat crow buffet and video it as proof.
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1473. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting aspectre:
No response last time so...
Hokay the 92L_TropicalWave left the 92L_CaribbeanConvection behind after splitting over PuertoRico and the Dominican Republic, just before NHC defenestrated 92L as unworthy of future forecast efforts.
However I noticed that the yellow-orange area over the Bahamas at 72hours*

and the red-orange area farther north over the Bahamas at 144hours

seem to be about where the top portion of the 92L_TW was headed before 92L was declared dead.

Anything to a northern remnant of the 92L_TropicalWave still surviving?
Or just a coincidental placement close enough to get me to fantasize a connection between the old 92L and the predicted new activity over the Bahamas?

* I think, might have been a 48hour. I'll check back to Levi32's posting later. And subtracting the time since I first posted this, it'd be down to ~60hours and ~132hours.


NOGAPS takes 92L wave harmlessly into Central America. What it develops & brings near FL is the wave that is at ~45W right now.
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Quoting fldude99:


Another idiotic comment from a Miami fan. What do you have against FSU sports? As a Floridian from the panhandle, my 1st team would be the noles, but I can't dislike the Gators or the canes. I see that a lot from people in S FL...maybe jealousy..who knows
How is that idiotic? They're rivals. I know many noles fans who hate canes fans. If you like one you hate the other, thats how sports work.....
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Houston has only
received 0.81 inches for the month.

Rainfall deficits for the year are now
10.40 inches at hobby Airport...7.27 inches at Intercontinental Airport...6.16 inches at Galveston

Time for tropical system to get in Gulf and replenish our coast


Yeah, Houston has been mostly dry and unseasonably hot lately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
This should explain:



Thats it, note that this will take another 72 hours to all fall into place though. Individual model consistancy and multiple model alignment is what we are looking for.
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Ohhh okay, I see. I am currently a Met Major at UM, but I plan on using UM's resource to obtain a job with NOAA after graduation. Possibly look into the NOAA/OAR/AOML offices on Virginia Key. It's funny because I was an FSU fan all my life, and now I'm attending UM, you're the reverse.. LOL.
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1467. cg2916
Is there a link between the ENSO and NAO?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes I live in Miami. I am definitely a die-hard Canes fan as you can tell but considering that I want to study tropical meteorology FSU is the best choice. I know, I know, when I go to the games I hate FSU (always have) but when it comes down to what is the best choice, FSU is the one. I can guarantee I won't demonstrate too much sportsmanship around campus as I will never wear anything in association with the noles.


Another idiotic comment from a Miami fan. What do you have against FSU sports? As a Floridian from the panhandle, my 1st team would be the noles, but I can't dislike the Gators or the canes. I see that a lot from people in S FL...maybe jealousy..who knows
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uh well hmmmmmm whats up with this situation coming up??
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Quoting Drakoen:


I am going to FSU in the fall for meteorology
Good to hear, I wish you good luck.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.