Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 — Blog Index
You makin me dribble, Man!
heheheh
Or mentions the word crow...
we're talking at least a week and a half away
Shear below 15N is almost Nil, kinda scary.
Dunno about banned, but yes it is getting very very old.
Yeah, ah really need to stop, it have 2 pcs left in the fridge and I'm almost ready to take one out and light up de stove. lol
Well thats fine but its when your trying to prove a valid forecast with evidence and someone calls you a wishcaster or a downcaster for it....i only have one blogger on my ignore list and it is because he called me a downcaster repeatedly...i mean grow up come on lol
Lets not get overly confrontational just because someone else's view doesn't fit the general mood of the blog.
And sammy, other than climatology, why do u think nothing's going to form in the next 6 weeks?
Seeing as how I have been trying to perfect that combination of attributes, for years.
MH09 is confusing people with his posts, the lesser Antilles wave and the Venezuelan trough will be interacting to produce the storm in the Caribbean. The area the models show in the bahamas is the tropical wave out in the middle of the tropical Atlantic not the lesser Antilles disturbance.
Yeah, I know who that is.
exactly
Where's the dry air in the MDR?
really hmmm
Yeah, I didnt think it would.
hi
See thats what i was thinking all along i thought i may have been wrong...
yup
Lol... good stuff.
According to Dr. M it is by July. No offense, but you seem to make many false statements and misguide ppl. The newly shaded area in the SE Carib is not the SFL storm, as Drak pointed out. Just saying...
Last time Alex didnt form until about the 31st of July. And 2004 was definitely and onslaught
Which is incorrect.
Viewing: 1201 - 1251
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 — Blog Index