Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Saturday, June 19, 2010.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Happy Father's Day, all you fathers out there, and I'll have an update on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Nope, that's the impressive tropical wave that came off of Africa behind 92L. It just hasn't been making much activity till now because it hasn't been under a favorable outflow environment till now.
This week we have another wave in the eastern Caribbean that some of the models are picking up on, it it currently near the lesser Antilles, and at the moment, is not being tracked as an investigation area.
Attention is being placed upon it based on long range models at the moment, because one (the ECMWF/euro and Canadian models) have presented the "high hype" scenario into the Gulf. This means it's worth watching over the next few days, but that scenario right now is currently a bit of a stretch . But it will be an area to watch over the week to see where it goes and if it survives the trek across the Caribbean.
Look at how ridiculously warm the Gulf and western Atlantic are.
Mother nature pissed off at BP.....Too bad she punishes the Gulf coast residents too.
takes the wave we are watching over cuba and smaks it into so fla . check it here
Link
ABNT20 KNHC 211152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
(1)93L.
(2)Trouble.
(3)Media blasting all over the airwaves about the oil volcano/GOM system?
I have been following the NHC surface analysis daily (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif).
I believe the AOI in the E Caribbean today is the tropical wave that came off of Africa days ago. This tropical wave was the impressive one that came off of Africa right behind 92L. Tropical wave's have to be followed on surface analyses because they are not always well-defined on satellite imagery. Tropical waves can be "silent," then suddenly blow up convection when it finds a favorable environment, making things look like they pop out of nowhere.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season to be remembered for the "Catastrophic Oil Cane".
Impossible to tell at 144 hours.
Yep, I think I am going to predict first TD out of the season with this one because the environment looks good. Hopefully I won't be eating crows with this one like I did with 92L. I hope I am wrong though, better not to have tropical cyclones near land.
Super Ouch?
:)..........Believe me, by around 11:00 am, when the rest of the "folks" arrive, they will start calling for a cat 5 over the Gulf Horizon.....Lol
NHC=Conservative.
nice blow up ther at 67w 13 n is this the area that could become 93l soon .
And that's when this blog losses it.
Best time to be on here is now...earlier mornings.
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LIKE
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OR INTO THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY GONE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS WHICH
KEEPS IT WEAK AND MOVES IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED WITH A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING AND SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZES.
Fuel for the fire.
That's true for now, but someone at the NHC has to write a post-storm synoptic history on this thing if it develops into a tropical cyclone, and they've got to understand its origins.
I also think its interesting to understand the deep-origins of a tropical cyclone to understand why this stuff happens.
They may have to change that outlook based on what the NHC is saying.
Maybe sooner than we think ? This one certainly has MY attention. If things pan out as expected not looking good for the Cayman Islands.
Thinking about heading to your blog...lol.
I agree with your statements. Admin won't tolerate anything on here. I'm like others...I wish WU would require a $10 annual fee to be on here. That would cut out a lot of the problems.
I can see their point, there's just a lot more at stake this year in the GOM.
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