New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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2428. Grothar
Quoting Jeff9641:


Have you heard anything about alex1991hurricane? I wonder if he is getting better:(


Hope you are joking?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Water temp. 25c ??? Strange....


North Winds...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I noticed the ECMWF shifted back west at the 12Z run, which is more in line with its ensemble members.

And only a TS at the end of the run. ???
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 691
Funny.

TWC still hasn't read the update. Guy was still using the TWO from 6 hours ago just now on the "tropical update".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Comments posted a minute (averaged).

7:00 PM EDT - 8:00 PM EDT: 4.55 comments posted a minute.

thats slow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
its an old, old handle... had it for years. Not really that unfriendly, even offered to go check on someones dad that lived close to me during the b2b blizzards - we had around 45 inches on the ground at one point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting watchingnva:
we have an invest...we will see if we have more in the next few days..really hoped we could get some evening storms around here...nothing like rain cooled air after a scorcher of a day....


yep and guess what, the heat shows no sign of letting up in the next 7 days, with a 20-30% chance of a pop-up t'storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Such as TVCN?
Exactly.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
wow
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2418. pottery
Quoting GetReal:
Recent ship report under 93L!!!

Eagle Anaheim

Last reported at 2010-Jun-21 17:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Jun-22 00:50 UTC.
Position N 13°36', W 070°06'.


Wind from 350 at 13 knots

Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 4 second period


Barometer 1012.0 mb
Air temperature 28.0 ° C
Dewpoint 26.7 ° C
Water temperature 25.0 ° C

Water temp. 25c ??? Strange....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting IKE:


Comebacks....

(1)Downcaster
(2)Troll
(3)Ignored


LOL, I can't disagree with (1).
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
we have an invest...we will see if we have more in the next few days..really hoped we could get some evening storms around here...nothing like rain cooled air after a scorcher of a day....
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1516
Quoting StormW:


Well, the European has ALWAYS done well in nailing tracks right on the money in the PAC area around Japan and Asia, and has out performed all the other models for the past 3 years. The multi consensus models according to NHC are better than the single models, with the exception of the ECMWF (Euro)
Such as TVCN?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 691
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Comments posted a minute (averaged).

7:00 PM EDT - 8:00 PM EDT: 4.55 comments posted a minute.


Wow just wait until we have a major hurricane bearing down on the CONUS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Models have been shifting slightly to the right on each run. Why did the ECMWF drop it altogether?

it didnt look at the end of the run
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Anybody know how alex1991 is doing?
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2411. GetReal
Recent ship report under 93L!!!

Eagle Anaheim

Last reported at 2010-Jun-21 17:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Jun-22 00:50 UTC.
Position N 13°36', W 070°06'.


Wind from 350 at 13 knots

Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 4 second period


Barometer 1012.0 mb
Air temperature 28.0 ° C
Dewpoint 26.7 ° C
Water temperature 25.0 ° C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Comments posted a minute (averaged).

7:00 PM EDT - 8:00 PM EDT: 4.55 comments posted a minute.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2409. will45
I think that the vertical stacking of the system will have a lot to do with the tracks.If it stays shallow it may not feel any weakness that it would have to the north.
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Quoting IKE:


Comebacks....

(1)Downcaster
(2)Troll
(3)Ignored

lol a invest rolls in and so do the clowns ike
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Quoting Unfriendly:


thats what he said...


Thanks, whats with ur user name.
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2405. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No southeast Fla. though. A major shift in steering currents would have to happen. Not likely.


Models have been shifting slightly to the right on each run. Why did the ECMWF drop it altogether?
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Quoting watchingnva:


you, my friend, are not slIck...:)

like how i did that?...yea...lol


evening watch, yet another quiet night in the old dominion, although not the case for the tropics.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes a closed circulation, but it also has to be tight too.


thats what he said...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I noticed the ECMWF shifted back west at the 12Z run, which is more in line with its ensemble members.

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2401. Drakoen
RAMSDIS satellite loops shows a lower to mid level cyclonic circulation just south of 15N near 70W.
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Quoting BenBIogger:




?


you, my friend, are not slIck...:)

like how i did that?...yea...lol
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1516
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY NOTED IN/ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN AND WE
SHOULD SEE PERHAPS A SMIDGE MORE FOR TOMORROW AS WV IMAGERY LOOKS
TO BE HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF A LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE/LIFT FROM
THE EAST. PER THE SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODELS...A GOOD CHC OF POPS
ON TAP FOR WEDS. PWS PROGGED TO INCREASE AOA 2.1" AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT PRESENT NOT SEEING MUCH BEYOND SOME LOCAL-
LY HEAVY RAINS FOR WEDS AS WE SEEM TO LACK A WELL DEFINED LOW-LVL
BOUNDARY. BUT GIVEN THE DAYTIME HEATING/EXPECTED HIGH PWS WILL GO
AHEAD AND RAISE POPS FOR WEDS. A RETURN TO THE MORE NORMAL 20% OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE POPS THEREAFTER. AS FOR EXTENDED GUIDANCE...THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYS-
TEM/SOMETHING FOR NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ITS TRACK AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN...BUT THEN THINGS GET SHAKY FOR
ITS EVENTUAL MOTION WITHIN THE GULF. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE PROGS
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT IS
SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE SRN STATES. LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS CRP IN
ITS SIGHTS BUT THIS SHOULD/IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE DAYS GO ON.

41
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Too much caffeine maybe?

As you just read in the TWD, 93L has a broad surface low. Unless this tightens up I wouldn't expect tropical depression status. I'm going to say a good 30 hours before any serious consideration of a tropical depression.


actually I had sprite with dinner tonight(no caffeine)....watch and learn as convection explodes over the area near 14.8N,72.5W...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, indeed.


Have you heard anything about alex1991hurricane? I wonder if he is getting better:(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


lmao
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Since you are imitating BenBlogger I'm just going to well you know.


?
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
2393. mchuter
Hi there Patrap, Drak, and Storm W.....long time no chat!! Just tracking this little puppy from Slidell, LA. I was reading the posts all day...I really appreciate your imput!! Thanks again...Mary :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Ignore!LOL
LOL, indeed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CaneWarning:
I'll be more comfortable with the models after the hurricane hunters fly into the system.


Agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Or in another words, a closed circulation
Yes a closed circulation, but it also has to be tight too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I'll be more comfortable with the models after the hurricane hunters fly into the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Since you are imitating BenBlogger I'm just going to well you know.


Ignore!LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Comebacks....

(1)Downcaster
(2)Troll
(3)Ignored
You know it, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Too much caffeine maybe?

As you just read in the TWD, 93L has a broad surface low. Unless this tightens up I wouldn't expect tropical depression status. I'm going to say a good 30 hours before any serious consideration of a tropical depression.


Or in another words, a closed circulation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Comebacks....

(1)Downcaster
(2)Troll
(3)Ignored


lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BenBIogger:
Get ready for a disappointing night. JMO
Since you are imitating BenBlogger I'm just going to well you know.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TampaSpin:
I would not rely on any model until 93L develops a LLC! Then let the models cycle 3 times before one can believe something. Right now all can do is look at the dynamics of what appears to be in the pipeline, the timing and format a guess as i have done! Its just a guess.


Models...Shmodels...93L will be TD1 by Wednesday.
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2382. IKE
Quoting BenBIogger:
Get ready for a disappointing night. JMO


Comebacks....

(1)Downcaster
(2)Troll
(3)Ignored
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


TPC seeing a circulation trying to form good sign




looks like my guess was pretty good,I just used sat for analysis of my position,now let see if we have a TD1 by 11am!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting StormW:


I'm gonna take a gander at things shortly...but you could be absolutely right...the NHC says that the coverage of those 3 models are limited to the near vicinity of the storm...I believe the value was something like 6-8 or 6-10 degrees at the most.
Which are the more reliable long range models?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 691
Quoting TampaSpin:
I would not rely on any model until 93L develops a LLC! Then let the models cycle 3 times before one can believe something. Right now all can do is look at the dynamics of what appears to be in the pipeline, the timing and format a guess as i have done! Its just a guess.


agree
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting stillwaiting:
Its beeeeeeeeginiiiiiiiing!!!!watch the area I just discussed its starting to explode w/convection and its just begining,TD1 by the 11am,unless the NHC is ultra conservative like w/92L when it was a TD 2 saturday nights ago!!!
Too much caffeine maybe?

As you just read in the TWD, 93L has a broad surface low. Unless this tightens up I wouldn't expect tropical depression status. I'm going to say a good 30 hours before any serious consideration of a tropical depression.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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