Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, but there were 3 cat 5 never to make landfall. I gave a hint of the first in post 1243. Hurricane Dog 1950, Easy in 1951 and Cleo in 1958. True, the first were not official names. but they were named.

Dog, Easy and Cleo...Sounds like my love life :)

Look at how much shear the SHIPS analyzed:

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

SHEAR (KT) 19 15 9 3 9 12 13 13 7 7 3 10 2

Quoting BahaHurican:
Whoa.... gone to 50%! Mind u, we did get to that point w/ 92L, so we shall see whether 93L is another of the pop-fizz variety....

I gotta go. I'd much rather be blogging, but...

L8R!!!

92L got to 60% :P

Good evening! Anyone have an idea of where 93l is or will be going? Any and all opinions appreciated!

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Ah...didnt see that.

Makes sense.

Over the Yucatan.

The previous BAMM track took the system through a prolonged area of very high TCHP which the SHIPS intensity responsed to accordingly.

Quoting Drakoen:


21.2 88W. Shear is 2 knots but the problem is the OHC which is 14 compared to 116 (max) in the Caribbean. That's probably why the intensity is toned down.

It would go over the very tip it appears.

@cq... what they are referring to is an upper level ridge, which will aid to keep shear low to non-existant over the Carib. This upper level anticyclone is expected to move w/nw with the "Invest"

Lacking some convergence:

In the weather segment of our local news here in Cayman, nothing was mentioned about 93L except a "large tropical wave." This is typical. Little is mentioned until something is almost right on top of us, like Ivan. And the government wonders why Caymanians are so quick to turn to outside media/bodies before looking to our own for info on hurricanes. Go figure.

Quoting MrstormX:
Im scared now!

***Salts popcorn and fills up glass of iced Coca-cola***

Quoting stillwaiting:
I still think 93L will be a TD in the next 15hrs,93L blog

YOU MAY BE RIGHT! But, NHC only gives it a 50/50 chance in the next 48hrs.....i don't think i like this new percentage breakout they are using....I may be wrong.

im still calling for a more shift to the east next . the first runs never pan out they always shift so waiting to seee if this comes into play on the next run stay tuned

I'm guessing convection should begin to increase NOW and exploding around midnight EST,TD possible in the next 15hrs...

Good evening folks. Long time lurker here in SW Louisiana. I do love this blog, very informative. I keep a close eye on the tropics through hurricane season. I am in law enforcement, and find this blog to be a wealth of information, and has been so helpful when needed esp in preparation for my family and my profession. I just wanted to say thanks to all for taking the time to put this valuable info together for those of us that need it.

93L is just going through DMIN. I like the NHC call this evening, fair and to the point that a TD is likely to form within the next few days. I said this earlier, and I'll say this again. I am NOT wishcasting this, but if ANY system (93L) gets into the GOM and wind shear is low, expect a Hurricane. This is why I wasn't surprised with the last 2 EURO runs. I understand fully why it blew up the storm. We'll see what happens with 93L in a few days, give it time guys, don't rush it. It will take it's time to form.

AL, 93, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV,

HWRF kills it still, and that is probably my favorite model.

gfdl in 120 hours.very interesting

Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm guessing convection should begin to increase NOW and exploding around midnight EST,TD possible in the next 15hrs...

If 93L learned anything from its older brother 92L, then thats quite possible.

Broad area of 850 vort has developed in response to todays former convective episode.

here come $4.00 too $5.00 gas if it gos too the gulf

Quoting cg2916:
Storm said that the GFS for the past 3 runs has been showing a strengthening in the subtropical ridge. What does this mean for 93L?

No one will answer me!

A stronger ridge means a more westerly component. However, until we have a system with a closed circulation it is too early to determine how far west we are talking about.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Look at how much shear the SHIPS analyzed:

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

SHEAR (KT) 19 15 9 3 9 12 13 13 7 7 3 10 2

Look at where the low is being initialized

The models will be all over the place until we have a well defined LLC, which should/could take place tomorrow if it develops some decent convection.

If I was a judge on America's Next Top Model, I'd certainly pick the HWRF.

When is the next ECMWF run?

GFDL 18z track:

Quoting StadiumEffect:
In the weather segment of our local news here in Cayman, nothing was mentioned about 93L except a "large tropical wave." This is typical. Little is mentioned until something is almost right on top of us, like Ivan. And the government wonders why Caymanians are so quick to turn to outside media/bodies before looking to our own for info on hurricanes. Go figure.

Amen. 12 hrs before Ivan hit I received a call from the EOC telling me to go to a shelter.

Quoting Tazmanian:



note even no they are doing some new this year with the % if they where still doing the old way we will be red right now

No offense but I'm holding back your cookies. Waiting for actual stuff not 2nd guesing of forecasters. I'll double the cookie count if your right because of difficulty.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Dog, Easy and Cleo...Sounds like my love life :)

Funniest line of the night!

Quoting Drakoen:


Look at where the low is being initialized

14.9, 70

Dang.

if 93l were to make it to FL, Tampa, what time frame at we looking at???

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The models will be all over the place until we have a well defined LLC, which should/could take place tomorrow if it develops some decent convection.

Exactly, the reason why the NHC bumped up from 30% is because conditions are becoming more favorable, doesn't mean it's developing a LLC, just organizing in structure. I believe a LLC will form tomorrow.

Quoting TampaSpin:

I see what you mean Tampa. I think we all agree. Can't argue with that.

93L track








things that make you go hmmmmmmmm

I can't believe the center is where they are saying it is... Huh???

I made this today... I will make another when the next RAOB comes out..

I find it intersting that the NHC incorporates the area between 75W and 65W as part of 93L.

I have seen where the GFS is pretty deep with the trough over the eastern CONUS around days 7-8 and has been pretty consistent with that. In the short term, the subtropical ridge is strengthening, evidenced by the northward shift of the ridge axis, currently over FL/GA border region.

Link

Here are a few late run. Good site for models,early and late

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