Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting CaneWarning:


What is the TVCN? It curves it back towards the NE.

TVCN

TVCN is a simple track consensus calculated by averaging the forecast latitudes and longitudes provided by the GHMI (interpolated GFDL), EGRI (interpolated UKMET with subjective quality control), NGPI (interpolated NOGAPS), HWFI (interpolated HWRF), GFSI (interpolated GFS), GFNI (interpolated GFDN model), and EMXI (interpolated ECMWF model). TVCN requires at least two of the seven member models to be present. The member models forming the TVCN consensus are evaluated annually, and may change from year to year.

#2258 has got to be slamming anybody with a slow connection.

wow they changed up the whole think look

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010062112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 643W, 15, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 127N, 654W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 134N, 665W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 140N, 676W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 688W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Is 93L already heading back to DMAX?

Quoting IKE:
*Salts popcorn*

Wow, you really like your popcorn salty...

wnw move ?

Quoting Hurricanes101:


Its a concensus of all the models I believe

Yup, that's why it verified second to the ECMWF last year. I usually take that model over most and that's why I'm following that one right now.

How is our 93L doing this evening, i see that it got upgraded to 50%

anyone think the GFDL model is credible on TS in the gulf at 160hours>?

We are living on models at this point to validate what we know. I don't think the models do the time part right.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/93/L
MARK
14.1N/71.9W

Convection coverage has expanded significantly! DMAX could in fact be significant. Tomorrow when all that convection tightens up, I think a low will form. I'm guessing by noon tomorrow, a closed low will be present.

Averaged over the past 6 hours 93L has been moving towards the WNW at 14 mph.

Quoting CyberStorm:
anyone think the GFDL model is credible on TS in the gulf at 160hours>?

Right now I think that model has the best solution. GFS and HWRF are all over the place. NoGaps isnt picking up on it yet. SHIPS is useless on a regular basis. So GFDL seems to pick up well on it and it verfied well to this point as well.

Quoting tropicfreak:
How is our 93L doing this evening, i see that it got upgraded to 50%

it went from 10% this AM too 50% this PM

Quoting Patrap:
Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop

Wow the amount of circulation and banding has increased significantly. It is really organizing for sure!

I'm watching the area near 14.8N,72.5 for convection to explode over the next 12hrs and a new closed surface low forming under it!!!!!

Quoting clwstmchasr:
When is the next ECMWF run?

completed close to 3am for the Night Owls.

Quoting StormW:


No ma'am.

Why not? Seems to obe verifying well compared to others.

This is a beastly "Invest"... takes up half of the Caribbean

Quoting StormW:


No ma'am.

StormW - we should ignore the GFDL for now?

Quoting tropicfreak:


Wow the amount of circulation and banding has increased significantly. It is really organizing for sure!

yep its the real thing lets see how it spins

From the Nashville,TN. extended....

"MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUN NGT AND MOVING INTO THE MIDSTATE ON MON. THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. THE EURO
IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOVE DUE MAINLY TO ITS OBSESSION WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF."

Quoting Jeff9641:


Track yes but a strong hurricane.

You are overdoing it. I'm not ruling out the possibility of RI into a hurricane due to the factors present. The question is what is a strong hurricane for you? If it is a major hurricane, you're overdoing it, lol.

Quoting StormW:


No ma'am.

what is your opinion on this invest?

O boy...LOL

not flaring up as much t'storms but still looking great!!

Quoting sporteguy03:

completed close to 3am for the Night Owls.

Thanks. I won't stay up but I do have a 7:00am flight so I'll give it a look around 5.

AL, 93, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV

Quoting xcool:
wnw move ?

yeap and if it keeps going that way the models will def go east get ready for dmax should be a good one

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Quoting weathersp:
AXNT20 KNHC 212357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO FORM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N72W SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY.

TPC seeing a circulation trying to form good sign

Quoting StormW:


We discussed it at the National Hurricane Conference...NHC forecasters stated GFDL, GFDN, and HWRF are not good for long range track.

Fair enough...just looking at the synoptic pattern that track doesnt look too bad...it will shift some of course. Not sold on intensity though. Could be a little stronger or a little weaker. Hard to say until it gets a little more organized.