Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..

National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
3:00 AM UTC June 22 2010
==================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Celia (970 hPa) located at 11.7N 103.9W or 440 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 11.9N 106.6W - 100 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
48 HRS: 12.3N 110.6W - 100 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
72 HRS: 13.3N 114.5W - 95 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)

Hi Aqua - see you had some rain today. We were at 87 and you were at 74 -- some nice coool rain.

7 year lurker here, but I really enjoy the comments on here and have learned a lot. I would like to know which of the track models are the most accurate ones to watch?

00z NAM

Pat, If you're still serving, please make mine a Bourbon & rocks.

All: As Walkin would say; "93L has a fever, and the only cure is more cowbell."

Let's see what she does tomorrow. I'm off, good night all.

SARCASM FLAG = ACTIVE

Quoting zoomiami:
Think we should have a WU happy hour - for those who aren't old enough or don't drink -- shirley temples are a great choice!

Vodka tonic for me please! Is it two for one???

Quoting Ivanhater:
00z NAM

I don't like the looks of that.

Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo o our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..

PAHAHAHAHA!! Who needs Kesha when we got Pat! WORD...
Best post of the day fasho!

Quoting connie1976:
For very few mets being here.....you do better at predicting storms then the experts....lol...

I think this blog is a very legitimate place to get hurricane forecasts from. Think about it, we're not all meteorologist, but we all know where to find the best maps and resources. We look places the general public isn't interested in to find information....

If you piece all of this information together by reading it you know probably just as much as any forecaster in the NHC

Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..

Patrap, Sir, Master, This is the SINGLE GREATEST POST EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not much to look at:

iknow about nam model

Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Storm, what is the shear forecast for the next 7days?

vary low wind shear

Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..

=O

nvm wrong song =P that was tik tok by ke$ha

I kinda like Keisha..

Quoting StormW:
14N;69W?
IR2 LOOP

Supported by cimss 850mb vort as well

Looks like the merging of the different systems into one has begun now.

Was the TCHP product changed in 08? I am just fishing for things that make what I see, not as bad......

Will be interesting to see if the 00z GFS picks up on the system now that its circulation is becoming a little better defined. Still not at the surface fully, I realize that, but we can at least tell where one is trying to get to the surface. That should help the models out a bit.

Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..

Pat I think you've finally gone off your rocker,lol...just joking(kinda);).....funniest post since the Tropical Cyclone barrier pic!!!

Quoting Patrap:
I kinda like Keisha..

Yup, she's a feisty one from what I hear. Good contribute to the blog, LOL

Interesting...

Quoting Hurricanes101:


lol I didnt pick on anyone

what I said is true and I stand by it. I was not aware that person was a met, again its not obvious to everyone on the blog who is or is not a professional

maybe there should be an icon next to a posters name so we can tell

that is why we all use aliases. "Nobody knows, but the Shadow" No harm done, everyone is a little off tonight.

Quoting watchdog40:
7 year lurker here, but I really enjoy the comments on here and have learned a lot. I would like to know which of the track models are the most accurate ones to watch?

Hello watchdog, The GFS and EMCWF are usually the ones to watch at this stage, Once the system gets going, the more sophisticated models like the GFDL and HWRF, as well as the overall trend of the Spaghetti models are good to watch.

Well Im gonna exit on a winna..

Have a good nite all.

Quoting Ivanhater:
00z NAM

Bullish as always...

Quoting watchdog40:
7 year lurker here, but I really enjoy the comments on here and have learned a lot. I would like to know which of the track models are the most accurate ones to watch?

It depends on the storm, some models handle conditions differently. What you want to look for is a series of closely clustered tracks. That is going to be where the storm generally goes. But, outliers exist because sometimes they go there.

0Z NAM is completely insane. Spins it up to the north and then almost stops it on a dime while it churns and intensifies. Is there ANY reason to believe that steering will collapse in three days? Toss this one on the ever-growing heap of different solutions, I think.

Quoting weathersp:


Hello watchdog, The GFS and EMCWF are usually the ones to watch at this stage, Once the system gets going, the more sophisticated models like the GFDL and HWRF, as well as the overall trend of the Spaghetti models are good to watch.

Thanks weathers

Check out what Climatolgy Average Sheer is vs. the Current Average Sheer is in the Caribbean...about 10kts different it appears!

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Who are they?

Playgirl called, and they want there picture back! LOL...
Jussst joshin, I gotta lighten the blog up somehow while we wait for this 93 L to form. Figured you could handle it :) Gotta love a sense of humor!

Hi Gang! just got in from a busy day at the office...Whats the latest?

Quoting SwLAlawchick:
Good evening folks. Long time lurker here in SW Louisiana. I do love this blog, very informative. I keep a close eye on the tropics through hurricane season. I am in law enforcement, and find this blog to be a wealth of information, and has been so helpful when needed esp in preparation for my family and my profession. I just wanted to say thanks to all for taking the time to put this valuable info together for those of us that need it.

I am in SWLA as well :)

Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Storm, what is the shear forecast for the next 7days?

The 18z GFS develops an anticyclonic environment across much of the Caribbean, and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. It has been consistent with this forecast for nearly three days now.

Best piece of advice I heard tonight:

Never under any circumstances take a sleeping pill and a laxative on the same night.

Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..

How about a 93L version of "Like a Rock" by Bob Seger.

Quoting Dropsonde:
0Z NAM is completely insane. Spins it up to the north and then almost stops it on a dime while it churns and intensifies. Is there ANY reason to believe that steering will collapse in five days? Toss this one on the ever-growing heap of different solutions, I think.

if it becomes a hurricane, what may happen is the upper level steering currents will try to push it NNE/NE while the high to the north will try to push it W/WNW so it's basically stuck until it feels a weakness.. I guess that's what the NAM may be hinting out..

Quoting StormW:
14N;69W?
IR2 LOOP

Took a minute to focus but, I have to agree. Helps having mid level circulation just to the N, lol.

Quoting zoomiami:


It depends on the storm, some models handle conditions differently. What you want to look for is a series of closely clustered tracks. That is going to be where the storm generally goes. But, outliers exist because sometimes they go there.

Thanks zoo!

Quoting atmoaggie:

I can think of 6 that are active ATM.

I'm not one, am I atmo?