New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting Levi32:


Yes...wild swings expected. Heck we have nothing but easterly winds running underneath 93L. Not even a hint of a surface circulation yet. It will get played around with a lot by the ECMWF.




what about the consistant west winds along venezuala's NE coastline???
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
By Christmastime the
Gulf will be a vile cesspool
unfit to visit
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1075. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

290

WHXX01 KWBC 211846

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1846 UTC MON JUN 21 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 69.9W 15.1N 72.2W 15.9N 74.3W

BAMD 13.5N 67.8W 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.2W 16.1N 74.2W

BAMM 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 70.0W 15.1N 72.3W 15.8N 74.5W

LBAR 13.5N 67.8W 14.5N 69.8W 15.7N 72.2W 16.6N 74.5W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.6N 76.6W 17.8N 80.6W 19.1N 84.0W 20.3N 87.0W

BAMD 16.6N 76.0W 17.3N 79.3W 18.1N 82.2W 18.9N 84.6W

BAMM 16.4N 76.6W 17.3N 80.2W 18.3N 83.3W 19.2N 86.0W

LBAR 17.4N 76.6W 18.3N 80.5W 20.3N 83.7W 22.4N 85.7W

SHIP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS

DSHP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 67.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 65.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 63.2W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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1073. Levi32
240 hours.

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Quoting Levi32:


nothing more than a moderate TS making landfall in Texas on this run

00Z run had a 950mb storm hitting Mobile and New Orleans; the 2 runs couldn't be anymore different
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1071. Drakoen
The SHIPS is a good tool to use once we have an actual system, though the fact that it is showing such intensification under favorable conditions which are supported by the global models cannot be ignored.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1070. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
honestly this isnt even a system on this run at this point; amazing the difference in the two runs





Eh....it's a TS on the model by the time it gets to the TX/MX border. Easily.
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honestly this isnt even a system on this run at this point; amazing the difference in the two runs



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1066. Levi32
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Not buying into ANY model solution until theres a defined LLC.

For all we know it could dissipate or become a major Hurricane.
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if 93L stays weaker=track further south and west,a stronger 93L would track further north and east!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
93L latest runs

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1061. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Did someone order insanity?

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 41 51 61 71 76 83 89 94 100
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 41 51 61 71 76 83 89 94 100
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 57 69 84 98 108 111

SHEAR (KT) 8 13 10 3 2 5 10 7 6 3 5 3 7



Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)




35 knot increase is 8.3 times the sample mean... crazy
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1060. unf97
Quoting Levi32:
The trough will not necessarily recurve 93L as much into the eastern gulf....there is lots of room for track swings here. Now that we have a disturbance to watch we can start figuring out if it will actually develop and how fast it will develop. A stronger system approaching the NW Caribbean will tend to track farther north and east. First we have to get development and without a defined surface center expect wild swings on the ECMWF and every other model. This is natural. For now we are focusing on development first, then track and intensity later.


Spot on and well stated Levi!
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give 92L a rest



dont wake 92L up from the dead they get vary mad when you do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Afternoon all! I see we have another invest. Looks pretty impressive and doc masters seems concerned. So, is this the beginning of hurricane season for us? I wish all these storms would stay away from the GOMEX.

Where has Weather 456 been?
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1057. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yeah, and we are only about a week out from potential landfall.


From the Yucatan...yes. Probably less than a week, if that's where it goes.
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Did someone order insanity?

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 41 51 61 71 76 83 89 94 100
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 41 51 61 71 76 83 89 94 100
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 57 69 84 98 108 111

SHEAR (KT) 8 13 10 3 2 5 10 7 6 3 5 3 7



Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)


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1054. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


Well...the SHIPS went the other way.

Too far out in time to know for sure.


Exactly Ike.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1052. Levi32
Notice the amazing agreement between the BAM models. What does that mean? It means there is no wind shear. The direction of the winds at every level is the same, and thus the shallow BAMS, medium-level BAMM, and deep-level BAMS are all in close agreement on track.

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Hi everyone - I've come back for another hurricane season. Is there any consensus on what's likely to happen with 93L and when?
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I need to fix my internet.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Are you hinting rapid intesification?
I'm not saying anything yet as it is has no circulation. But if it were to acquire one, the GFS shear forecasts leave that scenario possible. But then again it could never acquire one. It definitely deserves watching.
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Looks like it doesnt make TS status until around the Yukatan area or Southeast Gulf. If the high stays strong this very well head toward the Texas coast. Texas doesnt need another storm this quik after Ike. But like I said once we have a surface low to go by were all just guessing.
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93L is
a serious threat to the
Gulf of Mexico
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1046. IKE
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Its Ships model... i mean this thing predicts an invest to go to a hurricane. even before we have a td. its not a reliable model.


Exactly. It did the same thing on 92L...showing it near 90 knots.
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1045. Drakoen
Wow 100 knots on the SHIPS... lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
Quoting stillwaiting:
looks like floridas west coast might get some severe wx now thru around 11pm!!!!
Very pleasant right now. A thunderstorm nearby dropped my temp to 76 w.o raining.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
Quoting Hurricanes101:
AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 135N, 678W, 25, 1010, DB
Where do you get that info from?
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Quoting IKE:
GFS may prove correct again. Time will tell.

93L needs some model support. It's biggest supporter has backed off.


Yeah, and we are only about a week out from potential landfall.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
looks like floridas west coast might get some severe wx now thru around 11pm!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1037. 47n91w
From Wiki: Deforestation in Haiti is a severe environmental problem. In 1923, over 60% of Haiti's land was forested; by 2006, less than 2% was.

Quoting ldude:

not sure, but I think the deforestation in Haiti predates the earthquake.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 69.9W 15.1N 72.2W 15.9N 74.3W
BAMD 13.5N 67.8W 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.2W 16.1N 74.2W
BAMM 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 70.0W 15.1N 72.3W 15.8N 74.5W
LBAR 13.5N 67.8W 14.5N 69.8W 15.7N 72.2W 16.6N 74.5W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 76.6W 17.8N 80.6W 19.1N 84.0W 20.3N 87.0W
BAMD 16.6N 76.0W 17.3N 79.3W 18.1N 82.2W 18.9N 84.6W
BAMM 16.4N 76.6W 17.3N 80.2W 18.3N 83.3W 19.2N 86.0W
LBAR 17.4N 76.6W 18.3N 80.5W 20.3N 83.7W 22.4N 85.7W
SHIP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS
DSHP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS




OMG
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1035. Levi32
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1034. fire635
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I just have a very hard time seeing what will slow down 93L from developing after its get a circulation going, besides land interaction.


I agree.. and I think once it finds its LLC (IMO will happen in the next 24 hours) the computer models will all start to come on board.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1033. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 69.9W 15.1N 72.2W 15.9N 74.3W
BAMD 13.5N 67.8W 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.2W 16.1N 74.2W
BAMM 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 70.0W 15.1N 72.3W 15.8N 74.5W
LBAR 13.5N 67.8W 14.5N 69.8W 15.7N 72.2W 16.6N 74.5W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 76.6W 17.8N 80.6W 19.1N 84.0W 20.3N 87.0W
BAMD 16.6N 76.0W 17.3N 79.3W 18.1N 82.2W 18.9N 84.6W
BAMM 16.4N 76.6W 17.3N 80.2W 18.3N 83.3W 19.2N 86.0W
LBAR 17.4N 76.6W 18.3N 80.5W 20.3N 83.7W 22.4N 85.7W
SHIP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS
DSHP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS



Well...the SHIPS went the other way.

Too far out in time to know for sure.
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1032. Levi32
Quoting sammywammybamy:



Levi ! Youre going to bring the Texas and Losuianacasters. next thing we know, there are going tobe 500 trolls thinking its going there way. lol


Lol. Well just so I'm clear I'm not making a track forecast yet. It would be foolish for me to do so without having a developed system with a clear center. I fully expected these swings with the ECMWF. There is no track commitment yet. We don't even have development yet.
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Quoting ssmate:
nofuncaster
LOL
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Up to a major cane. Not that about 93L anymore. Theres a HUGE model spread.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 69.9W 15.1N 72.2W 15.9N 74.3W
BAMD 13.5N 67.8W 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.2W 16.1N 74.2W
BAMM 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 70.0W 15.1N 72.3W 15.8N 74.5W
LBAR 13.5N 67.8W 14.5N 69.8W 15.7N 72.2W 16.6N 74.5W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 76.6W 17.8N 80.6W 19.1N 84.0W 20.3N 87.0W
BAMD 16.6N 76.0W 17.3N 79.3W 18.1N 82.2W 18.9N 84.6W
BAMM 16.4N 76.6W 17.3N 80.2W 18.3N 83.3W 19.2N 86.0W
LBAR 17.4N 76.6W 18.3N 80.5W 20.3N 83.7W 22.4N 85.7W
SHIP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS
DSHP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1028. IKE
GFS may prove correct again. Time will tell.

93L needs some model support. It's biggest supporter has backed off.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.