New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3577. RJT185
...still couldn't do a cart-wheel if its life depended on it, which it does. *eyeroll*
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Same thing with the anticyclone tightening, future met.
3 hours

-3 hours
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Based on the 850mb vorticity map, there could possibly be two main vortices. If this is the case, a mesoscale fujiwhara effect is currently occuring. You can see the two vort max areas combining.

Previous Three Hours


Current
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what's interesting is you don't see a lot of shear or upper level winds ripping anything apart. the entire (massive) field is pretty circular.
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Why is it being said that the waters can't get much warmer?
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3572. IKE
You can almost see a spin SW of PR on the long-range radar....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:
LOL. Houston's cracking me up. (Granted I could probably use more sleep.) Anyway.

THE WISHCAST IS MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST OF WEDNESDAY RAIN
AS MUCH OF THE CWA IS
IN DIRE NEED OF PRECIPITATION...OFFICIAL IAH SITE IS IN A 7.44
INCH HOLE WITH GLS COMING IN OVER 6 INCHES BELOW ANNUAL NORM.
LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE DIURNAL MX/MN TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING TOMORROW DUE TO MORE OVERCAST AND/OR RAIN.

"Wishcast." I didn't know that was an official meteorology term. :)

THE BUZZ ABOUT WHAT COULD BECOME OUR FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE
SEASON IS NOT DYING DOWN. NHC HAS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE (50%) THAT
THIS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IF/WHEN THIS DOES OCCUR...CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT IS
HEADING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE DUE TO MUCH BETTER INITIATION.
FWIW...06Z NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A 1000MB STORM JUST OFFSHORE
OF CANCUN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EURO HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON
ITS STRONG IVAN-LOOKING SCENARIO WITH THE GEM STILL CONSISTENT IN
ITS MOBILE BAY-TO-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE SUNDAY STORM. THE VERY
LIKE-ABLE GFS STILL HAS YET TO WAKE UP TO THE HYPE AS THERE IS NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW UNDER OUR GARGANTUAN 593-ISH DAM RIDGE.


Lol. I think "DAM RIDGE" might be a play on words. ;)


is that this upcoming sunday?? my goodness. (reality sinks in) our local news wmbb said it is out there but not much potential for development but "we are watching it" but they are infamous for lying so tourists will come.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
this model plots look a little too far west and south to me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Was thinking the same thing about moving the floater hw. Doesn't look organized at all to me though.

Forming center looks to have moved a degree north since NHC 2 a.m. Discussion cited 15N 71W.

Link

If that indeed is the center as the vorticity map shows two yellow areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like she shed some baby fat over night.

Best estimate on the "center" is 72.5W 16N.

Seems to have gained some core convection at the expense of the outer-most northern band. Too much dry air from the continent late yesterday got wrapped in between bands 1 and 2.

What's left of the old outer band seems to be drenching Haiti right now though.
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UKMET Office 06Z


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T + 48 : 14.9N 79.3W


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2010 14.9N 79.3W WEAK
00UTC 24.06.2010 15.0N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2010 16.3N 82.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.06.2010 16.1N 82.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.06.2010 17.4N 85.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.06.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:
93L seems to be much more organized this morning.


I thought so too. Seems to be headed north a lot quicker than I thought it was. Gonna need to move the floater soon.
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93L seems to be much more organized this morning.
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Hi, goodmorning.
While 93L doesn't look like much on satellite imagery, I think the vorticity map tells a different story.


Also, the anticyclone has become friendlier toward it.
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3561. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Gee I'm glad I waited up for this Lake Charles.

.LONG TERM...THE SLOW MOVING EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE SUFFICIENTLY
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY TO RETURN THE POPS BACK TO A MORE SEASONAL LEVEL.
A REBUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GIVE US A DRY WEEKEND.

Sigh.


I don't blame them. Not much I see through this weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gee I'm glad I waited up for this Lake Charles.

.LONG TERM...THE SLOW MOVING EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE SUFFICIENTLY
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY TO RETURN THE POPS BACK TO A MORE SEASONAL LEVEL.
A REBUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GIVE US A DRY WEEKEND.

Sigh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I trust that 93L will develop just give it some time plus it said possible tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and alot can change in that time frame



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3558. IKE
Coordinates listed on 93L...15.0N and 71.2W. It looks further north then 15N. Looks between 16-17N. Also appears to be in no hurry to develop....yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL. Houston's cracking me up. (Granted I could probably use more sleep.) Anyway.

THE WISHCAST IS MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST OF WEDNESDAY RAIN
AS MUCH OF THE CWA IS
IN DIRE NEED OF PRECIPITATION...OFFICIAL IAH SITE IS IN A 7.44
INCH HOLE WITH GLS COMING IN OVER 6 INCHES BELOW ANNUAL NORM.
LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE DIURNAL MX/MN TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING TOMORROW DUE TO MORE OVERCAST AND/OR RAIN.

"Wishcast." I didn't know that was an official meteorology term. :)

THE BUZZ ABOUT WHAT COULD BECOME OUR FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE
SEASON IS NOT DYING DOWN. NHC HAS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE (50%) THAT
THIS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IF/WHEN THIS DOES OCCUR...CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT IS
HEADING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE DUE TO MUCH BETTER INITIATION.
FWIW...06Z NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A 1000MB STORM JUST OFFSHORE
OF CANCUN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EURO HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON
ITS STRONG IVAN-LOOKING SCENARIO WITH THE GEM STILL CONSISTENT IN
ITS MOBILE BAY-TO-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE SUNDAY STORM. THE VERY
LIKE-ABLE GFS STILL HAS YET TO WAKE UP TO THE HYPE AS THERE IS NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW UNDER OUR GARGANTUAN 593-ISH DAM RIDGE.


Lol. I think "DAM RIDGE" might be a play on words. ;)
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3556. IKE
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Quoting SykKid:


Agreed 100%. But we shall see
stays weak, that is why it is trending westward.
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3554. SykKid
Quoting all4hurricanes:
93L looks awful it's just a wave now. I know everything is pointing to it developing but I haven't seen any development from it. Right now I think it's just going to keep moving north and die in the shear


Agreed 100%. But we shall see
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93L looks awful it's just a wave now. I know everything is pointing to it developing but I haven't seen any development from it. Right now I think it's just going to keep moving north and die in the shear
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3552. IKE
00Z UKMET @ 96 hours....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3551. SykKid
Quoting Walshy:



Agree. Not sure how why others think it won't develop? Pitiful seems like a poor word for a slowly organizing storm at the moment. Disorganized convection seems to fit it, but starting to see signs of the convection becoming more compact and expanding.


Which is very typical during D-max. I don't think this system looks all that great. Convection is very shallow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
For anyone confused as to what the commonly cited "mb" levels actually mean, here's a useful link.


Wow! Great link. Thanks. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3549. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh ya It is similar to IMD
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3548. Walshy
Quoting KoritheMan:


Convection still appears to be disorganized, though it is improving. I think we'll see a red circle this afternoon, and possibly even this morning.



Agree. Not sure how why others think it won't develop? Pitiful seems like a poor word for a slowly organizing storm at the moment. Disorganized convection seems to fit it, but starting to see signs of the convection becoming more compact and expanding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hmm

I always used this format on this site. Maybe someone is using it elsewhere?


Well, I sometimes see you highlight things such as "Severe Tropical Cyclone [insert name here]", which I do believe might be the IMD's format.

That's why I thought you were simply using the format of an official organization.

I wasn't aware this site had its own format, though. Interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3546. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hmm

I always used this format on this site. Maybe someone is using it elsewhere?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Walshy:
Organizing convection south-west of Santo, Domingo in 93L. Really starting to expand, wouldn't be surprised to see a huge circular ball of convection this later this morning. Ships still bring it over 90mph.


Convection still appears to be disorganized, though it is improving. I think we'll see a red circle this afternoon, and possibly even this morning.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
typing it using the data from NHC, of course.


Yeah, that I knew.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
yes.


Is this format based upon any kind of official format (NHC, JTWC, etc.), or is this your own? Because it looks sort of familiar, though I'm not sure which agency it resembles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3542. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
typing it using the data from NHC, of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3541. Walshy
Organizing convection south-west of Santo, Domingo in 93L. Really starting to expand, wouldn't be surprised to see a huge circular ball of convection this later this morning. Ships still bring it over 90mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3540. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
I am using this format.


Wait, so you're typing all of this up yourself?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3538. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
I am using this format.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
9:00 AM UTC June 22 2010
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Celia (970 hPa) located at 11.8N 104.7W or 430 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.1N 107.6W - 105 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
48 HRS: 12.6N 111.8W - 100 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
72 HRS: 13.7N 116.0W - 90 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)


Where do you get these excerpts from? They certainly don't use the NHC's format.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SykKid:
93L looks pitiful. I doubt this develops anytime soon...if at all.


What? The center appears to be near the deep convection south of Hispaniola. If you're looking at the small patch of convection well to the south of that, then I can understand why you'd make such an assessment. That's not the center though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3535. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
9:00 AM UTC June 22 2010
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Celia (970 hPa) located at 11.8N 104.7W or 430 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.1N 107.6W - 105 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
48 HRS: 12.6N 111.8W - 100 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
72 HRS: 13.7N 116.0W - 90 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3534. SykKid
93L looks pitiful. I doubt this develops anytime soon...if at all.
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3533. Walshy
93L is starting to form some more organized convection. Will have to see if we can get a huge blow up of circular convection later this morning.
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3491 post
Lol for this track ...
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Same. Good night Rob, Scott, and everyone else.
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3530. xcool
bye rob .i'm out too
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
ok im gonna go for the night good night all
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3528. xcool
KoritheMan thanks
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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