Little change to 93L; Brazilian floods kill 42

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2010

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There has been little change over the past 24 hours to the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Haiti. The storm has brought heavy rains to the waters south of Hispaniola, with radar precipitation estimates from the Puerto Rico radar of over six inches of rain in the past day. The heaviest rains have avoided land areas so far. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm (Bahahona and Kingston) are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, though there is a modest patch of dry air to the storm's southwest. This dry air is likely contributing to the lack of heavy thunderstorms on 93L's west side, slowing development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 15 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Thursday afternoon, with Friday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air limited, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday, except for possible interaction with land. There is a low (less than 20% chance) of 93L becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Thursday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday through Friday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and Saturday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF models. This seems like a likely solution, since recent runs of most of the models have been showing a stronger trough. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the NOGAPS and Canadian models, which foresee a more westerly track for 93L across the Yucatan Peninsula, with the storm eventually threatening Texas by Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and UKMET models do not develop 93L. A likely landfall location is highly uncertain this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle given the current uncertainty in its development, and the strength of next Monday's trough that may steer 93L northwards.

Intensity forecast for 93L
Forecasting the amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is problematic. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and most of the models predict that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. This should allow 93L to intensify to at least a 50 mph tropical storm, as predicted by the HWRF model. The GFDL and ECMWF models are calling for 93L to become a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, and this is certainly a possibility. I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Total accumulated precipitation in millimeters (left) for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT June 21, 2010. The yellow colors (200+ mm, 8+ inches) are where extreme flooding was observed. Satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument (right) for June 17, 2010, showing heavy thunderstorms over the Alagoas state of Brazil. Image credit: NASA and NOAA Climate Prediction Service.

Floods in Brazil kill dozens
Heavy rains over the past week in the northeast state of Alagoas in Brazil have led to major flooding that has killed at least 42 people. Six hundred people are still missing. This weekend rains in Alagoas and Pernambuco states are the latest in a series of devastating floods to strike Brazil this year. Since the start of Brazil's rainy season last November, 488 people have been killed by flooding and 7.5 million have been affected in 10 states. Much of the heavy rains can be blamed on El Niño, which ended in May. In April, flooding and landslides triggered by torrential rain killed at least 229 people and did $13.3 billion in damage in the Rio de Janeiro area.

It's been a bad year for floods, and there are two other major flooding disasters that have occurred in the past week. In China, the death toll has risen to 211 people, with 119 people missing, because of flooding in the southern portion of the country. France suffered a flash flood last week that killed 25.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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I just put up a new blog on 93L
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Could mean that the circulation moved away from it.


The buoy is at 16.8 N 81.5 West. 93L is a very weak system at the surface. There is more energy aloft but it just can't seem to transition down to the surface.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
00z Surface Analysis.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Evening,

If 93L doesn't eventually develop into TD1, looks like I'll be eating my third crow of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season (ate two already on 92L).

Upper atmosphere is still good for development. We'll have to continue to be on standby for 93L.

I was right though about Darby popping up in the E-pac. Seems like the MJO has gotten things hot in the E-Pac and hasn't quiet gotten into the Caribbean yet?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
yea I am out, watching this back and forth is pretty fun and all

but I think I will let 93L decide for itself

night everyone
Lol, night.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2584. xcool


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93L beginning to fire some intense convection just to the southeast of the eastern tip of Jamaica.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
yea I am out, watching this back and forth is pretty fun and all

but I think I will let 93L decide for itself

night everyone
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
OK..BBL..New Tune References: The Rolling Stones! Just a suggestion....
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Quoting kmanislander:
Surface pressure at buoy 42057 rising now

93L is probably at least 12 hours away from any further organization, if any.
Could mean that the circulation moved away from it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Just a layperson here, but in the current RAMDIS images I'm finally seeing what I've been waiting for... a separation of the convection west of the Haiti/DR border with that east of it, which I think will finally allow 93l to start wrapping some convection around the low, located southeast of Jamaica, during DMAX tonight.

With the path in front of it finally moistening a bit, I think tonight is the key as to whether "Alex" ends up in Mexico/S. Texas or becomes a serious, and scary, player up near Louisiana. What I mean is, if we see a name on this storm by noon, EDT, on Thursday, it's time to start being a bit afraid, and time to start taking the next model runs very seriously.

Jo
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I'm not sure what to make of this mid level spin that is moving southeast of Jamaica. Every time 93L looks like its going to get its act together, multiple flare-ups occur on either side, killing it. I'm also a little unnerved about the way it's waiting until it crosses over the highest heat content that I've ever seen, to perhaps consolidate.

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Surface pressure at buoy 42057 rising now

93L is probably at least 12 hours away from any further organization, if any.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
2574. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE DARBY (EP052010)
03:00 AM UTC June 24 2010
==================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Darby (995 hPa) located at 12.3N 97.0W or 260 NM south southwest of Salina Cruz, Mexico has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.1N 99.8W - 75 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-1)
48 HRS: 13.6N 101.7W - 85 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)
72 HRS: 14.0N 102.5W - 85 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2573. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
03:00 AM UTC June 24 2010
==================================

SUBJECT: "CELIA" Weakens Into A Category Two Hurricane

At 3:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Celia (971 hPa) located at 12.4N 111.5W or 640 NM south of the Southern tip of Baja California, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.5N 115.8W - 105 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
48 HRS: 14.8N 120.1W - 90 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)
72 HRS: 15.9N 123.5W - 65 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-1)
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2572. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts













Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues

Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
The Blog has went crazy....


Yes and much very so.
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Quoting zoomiami:


Never gonna happen - the younger ones want instant gratification!!
I know that for a tropical cyclone to develop it is a long fragile process, and you can read me saying that as you look down the blog.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting zoomiami:


Never gonna happen - the younger ones want instant gratification!!


Indeed.Unfortunately this season will likely provide some of that in about 3 weeks or so.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
IF the low has formed, we should know by morning when DMAX hits. ;)
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Quoting kmanislander:
Guys, 93L is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Do not let it get your knickers in a twist. All will be revealed soon, or never as the case may be.


Never gonna happen - the younger ones want instant gratification!!
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Quoting TankHead93:
I'm beginning to give your notion that something may be trying to get going in that area of convection you are closely monitoring east of Jamaica *some merit... 850mb and 700mb vorticity has increased very slightly there.
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Quoting reedzone:
93L remains disorganized, but in the last few frames of the visible, the circulation WSW of Jamaica has gotten well defined. I do believe that if this is forming a surface low, a TD will be declared by tomorrow. With the conditions it's in and headed into, I see no point in continued slow organization, this is my opinion though, I could be wrong. Here's a map I made concerning what is happening with this stubborn invest.

Photobucket



IF indeed this is a surface low forming, I expect it to take off pretty fast as some of the models are showing. The track? let's get the low formed first, then I'll show you my thoughts on the potential track. I will say that the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida will be at risk IF this doesn't die out in the Yucatan as the GFS suggest.
Everything I have found supports that a surface low has already developed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2562. centex
The big picture, I think we have been thinking too small.

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yeah, 93l looks bad. Have you ever seen a "good" looking tropical system? It is circular with an eye and rotates... 93l is a very unorganized system at this time, so yeah, it's ok if someone says it looks "bad."
He meant bad as in catastrophic bad.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
93L remains disorganized, but in the last few frames of the visible, the circulation WSW of Jamaica has gotten well defined. I do believe that if this is forming a surface low, a TD will be declared by tomorrow. With the conditions it's in and headed into, I see no point in continued slow organization, this is my opinion though, I could be wrong. Here's a map I made concerning what is happening with this stubborn invest.

Photobucket



IF indeed this is a surface low forming, I expect it to take off pretty fast as some of the models are showing. The track? let's get the low formed first, then I'll show you my thoughts on the potential track. I will say that the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida will be at risk IF this doesn't die out in the Yucatan as the GFS suggest.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
93L ism one big mess and may never develope. I think the best hope is under all the convection at 74 and 75 W.
I'm beginning to give your notion that something may be trying to get going in that area of convection you are closely monitoring east of Jamaica... 850mb and 700mb vorticity has increased very slightly there.
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2558. DDR
Hello
Its been raining here(Trinidad) 5 days straight,hope we get a break tomorrow,the itcz is paying us a visit tonight again.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


This place has more personalities than Sybil.
Great movie! :)
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2556. JLPR2
Quoting aquak9:
goodness! I came here to catch up on 93L....guess I will just float away in my yellow submarine...


haha! The strawberry field sounds better XD
I think I'm heading there for awhile
Later
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Guys, 93L is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Do not let it get your knickers in a twist. All will be revealed soon, or never as the case may be.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting aquak9:
goodness! I came here to catch up on 93L....guess I will just float away in my yellow submarine...
Since we all live there...can I catch a ride?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
2537. Jeff9641 10:42 PM EDT on June 23, 2010

93L looks bad? You just said it was an open wave axis that would probably not develop. And just look at satellite, that "naked swirl" is a low level circulation covered by thunderstorms aloft.
Yeah, 93l looks bad. Have you ever seen a "good" looking tropical system? It is circular with an eye and rotates... 93l is a very unorganized system at this time, so yeah, it's ok if someone says it looks "bad."
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Quoting ryang:
Convection is diminishing near and around Haiti. Convection is starting to concentrate south Of Jamaica
Correct, where the low level circulation is.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting kmanislander:


Did I come back at a bad time ?


This place has more personalities than Sybil.
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Quoting reedzone:


Hey Buddy! :)
I checked out the blog/video. Frank Strait is very good at determing where storms will go, he isn't really good with tropical systems. He did point out the area of little to no shear to the south of 93L, which is the anticyclone. He also believes that it will develop more in the GOM. Though I like to listen to his videos, he's a pretty cool guy!
I'm sure he is, I've listened to a couple of his videos too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2547. ryang
Convection is diminishing near and around Haiti. Convection is starting to concentrate south Of Jamaica
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2546. aquak9
goodness! I came here to catch up on 93L....guess I will just float away in my yellow submarine...
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2537. Jeff9641 10:42 PM EDT on June 23, 2010

93L looks bad? You just said it was an open wave axis that would probably not develop. And just look at satellite, that "naked swirl" is a low level circulation covered by thunderstorms aloft.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lying? I'm not lying. And I don't want to see Frank's blog since he doesn't know of the term anticyclone. And yes there is a low level circulation, look at MIMIC-TPW, satellite imagery, 850 mb vorticity, and surface observations.


Hey Buddy! :)
I checked out the blog/video. Frank Strait is very good at determing where storms will go, he isn't really good with tropical systems. He did point out the area of little to no shear to the south of 93L, which is the anticyclone. He also believes that it will develop more in the GOM. Though I like to listen to his videos, he's a pretty cool guy!
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Quoting midgulfmom:


Feelin the luv?


That's much better thanks.
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2542. RTLSNK
Quoting hydrus:
8 tracks. I bet we still have a few in the attic. What size engine was in that Corvette?


327 cu in, 300 hp, 4 speed, convertable with both rag top and take off hard top, canary yellow with white leather interior. Traded it in two years later for a 69 427/454 shark body style monster. Big mistake. Windows fell down into the doors, wiring harness burned up, clutch wore out in under 500 miles, biggest lemon I have ever owned. :(
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Quoting kmanislander:


Did I come back at a bad time ?


Feelin the luv?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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