Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline
Hi all,
Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.
Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.
Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.
Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.
Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.
Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.
Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.
96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.
The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.
The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.
The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)
Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.
Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.
Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.
Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).
Reader Comments
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Posted by: shauntanner, 12:04 PM CDT on July 06, 2010
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96L doesn't really exist anymore. It's become a feeder band of SuperInvestigation 95L.
everyone understands what that means...lol
oooh..I like dat un.
Im gonna send it to Avila
Indeed. If you look at the shear map though, conditions are pretty wicked on the eastern half of the GOM. Much friendlier out west.
Link
The NHC iz gonna have to be on their collective toes this week,..
Cuz we sure will.
He was a personal friend of the late, great Lewis Grizzard. I think Lewis left Paul with some of his ability to write one-liners.
Nice, but a bit concerning for anyone on the GOM!
...the combo effect of Chiklit's point on the peaceful Western GOM and Patrap's tail of the dog..er..95L could mean a stronger storm forming in the SW gulf being pulled more Northward towards the bayous of LA me thinks...messing with my beigner snacking...
Lotsa trouble there.
do you mean it would follow it?
Say NO NO NO to NOGAP! Three coming ...messing with us badly if they are right..which they rarely are fully right....
Naaah, all the models and a few of the WU aces already have it landfalling in seTX or Mexico. No worries. ;P
Chasing tail gets you in trouble...unless you are the dog...but NOGAPS has storms chasing each others tail into the gulf it seems..
That's some down pour.
Dangit Hydrus, why'd you show me that?
Oh Oh Oh ::raising hand::
Now this one I know the answer too..
We can't :(
+1
Orleans is a very long Parish SE to NW, but I've had very little rain from 95L down here by Audubon Park.
Thanks in advance ...
Not to much here at Mag and Jeff.
I go there to get treatment.
Aussie, back at ya, mate!
Plug in the oil heaters....
Nite Aussie..sleep warm!
Looks worthy of a weak T.S. classification at least to me. Fido seemed to agree....
Can you please provide the link to the NOGAPS in 180 hours?
Thanks
Good point.
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