Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline
Hi all,
Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.
Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.
Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.
Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.
Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.
Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.
Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.
96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.
The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.
The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.
The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)
Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.
Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.
Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.
Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).
Reader Comments
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Again it made landfall in Mexico not New York lol
either way last names for storms are up there on the list of dumbest things ever invented along with scented toilet paper
Hi Storm, if this has been asked before I don't remember the response. What year would you compare this year to in the amount of storms, strength and tracking?
Unless something changes fast, I don't see 96L developing anymore
amazing we had 4 circles for 4 areas of interest just 36 hours ago, and now just 36 hours later it is a real possibility that none of them will develop
Correct. And what it does show heads west toward Mexico...Link
A friend and I used to call it the commerical channel in the 90's. Now it is the new lifetime. More stories than actual weather coverage!
Only if the salt in the water is kosher...
The problem with that concept is that someone has to know where it's going in order to properly name it ----- I just don't see that happening. We would all be fighting over the name as soon as it became a blob. LOL
I was going to be a bit surprised if we didn't get a named storm out of one of those areas. We still might, but chances are lower than they were. The pattern will remain favorable though for this kind of stuff to keep popping up, and I'm sure we will have more circles to watch soon enough.
Sure felt like a tropical band...
personally I think the area off the Eastern coast of the US has the best shot to become the next system
That warm water off the east coast is bad news for them if any hurricanes come calling up the eastern seaboard. That Gulf Stream is boiling this year with the warm AMO.
Center is almost back over water, then we shall see.
C'mon over ...
Agree that it will be back over water in 4-6 hours.
Also people need to realize how the numbers add up
If we go through July with say 3 named storms; we can still very easily get to 20
Heart of the season we can easily get 17 storms out of the months of August, September and October.
I'm in MD and am curious about what people think about this system off the east coast. At what point does NHC classify something as an AOI or invest?
I think more like 2008 just the pattern of most of them wanting to go to Texas...
Primary intention is not for the models although they will use the data. That GIV flight along with the soon to take off P3 is focusing on genesis and 3D doppler radar. If their plans don't change, the P3 will fly a "lawnmower" pattern instead of the traditional X.
The designation of an invest is completely subjective and has no criteria required for declaring one. The hurricane forecasters can label a disturbance an invest whenever they feel that it has potential to develop and they want to run model forecasts on it.
The area off the southeast coast could turn out to be interesting, but high pressures in the area may make it difficult to get anything going. There is a lot of energy trying to bundle in that area though, so there is potential. Any low that does form will likely miss the southeast coast and head north towards New England or the Canadian Maritimes. The system may even start off subtropical in nature. I wouldn't worry about a significant system, but you might get some stormy weather from it if it comes close to the eastern seaboard on its way north.
I concur, seems likely to be a bad year for the western Gulf.
"Invest" is short of Investigation and is labeled for an area of interest that the NHC would like to look into further for chances of possible development
Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
Link
Thanks, I didn't know the reason for the name either.
Something worthy of Invest..igation
meaning??
lol
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