The Northeast Heatwave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:08 AM GMT on July 07, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

The most significant weather event in the US on July 6, 2010 didn't show up on any radar. The geostationary satellites didn't see it in their constant watch over the Earth's atmosphere. Instead, the tale of this event was told by the thermometers, because the heatwave in the Northeast was the most significant event for July 6, and it will likely be the most important weather story for July 7.

The heat wave covers Pennsylvania to Maine, but Tuesday's worst was centered over New York City. All six of the stations used by the New York NWS office for climate reports (Central Park, La Guardia, JFK, Islip, Bridgeport, and Newark) set or tied the daily high temperature record. Newark and Central Park both reached 103 degrees F.

How unusual is this heat wave?
Figures 1 and 2 show how warm the highs and lows are compared to 30 year averages. Unless you were at the Great Lakes, the Midwest and Northeast have highs well above normal, with 10-15+ degree F differences over the coastal cities of the Northeast. Using my gridded temperature data, the low for New York City was 6 degrees F above normal, which should happen 30% of the time (1.1 standard deviations away from normal). The high was roughly 20 degrees above normal, which should happen only 0.29% of the time (3.04 standard deviations away from normal). This is an unusually strong heat wave.

Why it's hot
Basically, it's because there is "the Bull of a high pressure ridge [over the NE US]" to quote the Mount Holly NWS office forecast discussion. The large ridge of high pressure is forcing air to slowly descend across the Northeast, preventing clouds from forming. Without no clouds and plenty of daylight, the Sun heats the ground which then heats the air.

When will it cool down?
That's an excellent question. A trough of low pressure off the coast will bring onshore winds to the Tri-State area and MA by Thursday, so they should cool down a bit. The southern part of the heat wave, DC and Philadelphia, will have to wait for a cold front to arrive from the Great Lakes sometime Saturday to get relief.

Population affected
As Figure 3 shows, heat advisories covered most of the urban areas of the northeastern US. By my calculations, over 32 million people were under a heat advisory. Different offices have different guidelines for heat advisories. The NWS office responsible for New York issues a heat advisory if the heat index will be above 95 deg. F for two or more days or if the index will be above 100 deg. F for any length of time.


Fig.1 Plot of the difference between maximum temperature (the high for the day) and average maximum temperature in degrees F for July 6.


Fig.2 Plot of the difference between minimum temperature (the low for the day) and average minimum temperature in degrees F for July 6.


Fig.3 Plot of the active heat advisories across the northeastern US for July 6.

Heatwave impacts
The predominant impact from heat waves is increased mortality. CDC estimates that over 8,000 people died during heat waves from 1979 to 2003. That's more than all of the deaths due to lightning, flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes. The elderly, sick, poor, and very young face the worst of the effects of the heat. Wikipedia has an interesting article describing the Chicago Heat Wave of 1995, a modern heat wave with a large number of fatalities due to the heat.

Heatwave coping strategies
The Centers for Disease Control have some tips for dealing with the heat. In summary, drink plenty of water, spend time in air-conditioned buildings, and wear light-colored clothing.

Is this heat wave due to global warming?
Ah, the $64,000 question. In the absence of detailed analysis, it's hard to specify the exact cause for this heat wave, from a meteorological or climatological view point. However, events like this are consistent with research showing that heat waves are more likely with
global warming
. I like the metaphor of loaded dice, global warming is not specifically responsible for any heat wave, but it will make them happen more often.

Tropics
My thinking on Invest 96L is unchanged from this blog entry. In summary, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon to talk about the tropics.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's the post number that you said 80%?


Oh.... I had to post it??? Dang it..

LOL
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
WoooooHoooooooo 80% I got it right!! ok where is my cookie?



Here you go.
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Weather wise there are some very intelligent people on here.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Cangliosi has been there for a couple years... mainly working TAFB side, I think. He looks like he's been "training" [being mentored, I mean] for a while, because he's been writing TWDs for a while but only recently have I seen his name on ones by itself.

Also, for some reason I vaguely recall about 3-4 years ago there was a female Cangliosi there (with TAFB) who only stayed for a year, then went back to NWS northeastern office, IIRC....

But all this could be completely wrong....


Michelle Mainelli, she is now at NCEP. TAFB forecasters almost always write the TWD.
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Just did a blog entry on 96L!
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
WoooooHoooooooo 80% I got it right!! ok where is my cookie?
What's the post number that you said 80%?
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1630. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

I think you're brain glitching. In case you want to learn a little about him:

Q & A for NHC - John Cangialosi


Quoting Drakoen:


John Cangialosi


Thanks, seems like a nice guy. It should be nice to have a new face around on the forecast team.
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Quoting StormW:


I'll take 2 IKE!

Quoting StormW:


I'll take 2 IKE!

yea send one this way...been a crazy week.
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StormW, how does a tropical system strengthen over land?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
All visitors remember that all opinions on this blog are from amateur enthusiasts and are not reflective of the NHC. They are therefore highly suspect and for entertainment purposes only!


Seriously?? There are more credentials on here than you can shake a stick at. Not to mention several future mets currently in school. You view tropical weather as entertainment?? Wow.
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WoooooHoooooooo 80% I got it right!! ok where is my cookie?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1625. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


That's ridiculous if a TWO is based on who is on shift. I'm not saying it is or isn't but it's wrong if that's how they operate.


lol. The TWOs are based on what the forecaster(s) on duty observe. Subjective.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cangliosi has been there for a couple years... mainly working TAFB side, I think. He looks like he's been "training" [being mentored, I mean] for a while, because he's been writing TWDs for a while but only recently have I seen his name on ones by itself.

Also, for some reason I vaguely recall about 3-4 years ago there was a female Cangliosi there (with TAFB) who only stayed for a year, then went back to NWS northeastern office, IIRC....

But all this could be completely wrong....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1622. IKE
Quoting StormW:


I'll take 2 IKE!


LOL.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
96L has good structure. Reminds me of Erin 2007.




I bet Oklahoma hopes this is not another Erin! That is the storm that moved up that way and restrengthened. I still have pictures of the heavy rain from Erin...I think, from what we got here in Houston.
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Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.



NHC - John Cangialosi
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/q_and_a_200911_john_cangialosi.shtml
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1618. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


He was also one of the forecasters that put up the four circles

Link

Even more evidence of how they are the least conservative team (Stewart/Cangialosi)


That's ridiculous if a TWO is based on who is on shift. I'm not saying it is or isn't but it's wrong if that's how they operate.
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So where's Reed now? No circle around his low he's been bragging about and said there should be one. He also was dowcasting this. No matter if this develops or not we don't need rain from this we have been getting hammered in houston and galveston and the entire Texas Coast. I was hoping Levi and StormW had some magical powers and could just make this thing dissapear lol.
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1615. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


He's got a yellow stripe on his bumper.... NASCAR speak for he is a rookie. He will be pared with someone all season.


Thanks. Stewart's a good guy to be paired with.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


He was also one of the forecasters that put up the four circles

Link

Even more evidence of how they are the least conservative team (Stewart/Cangialosi)


Love them.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening everybody... interesting to see 96L look like it may finally get something together....

Maybe tomorrow if it's still there they'll consider it. Such areas really need to persist long enough to develop a LLC, and while there is some vorticity in the area, I have a feeling it's not down to the surface.

BTW, did anybody look at the Discussion?

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICA COAST ALONG 15W/16W S
OF 17N. A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL DRY VORTICITY CENTER IS NEAR THE
NRN EXTEND OF THE WAVE AXIS ANALYZED AS A 1006 MB LOW NEAR
17N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-19W.

This one already has a low analysed at the northern end! I have a feeling this is going to help pull the ITCZ up towards or over 10, and may in fact signal the beginning of CV season.... but we shall see what we shall see....
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1613. IKE
1607....If you're old enough I've got a 7 and 7 here waiting on you.
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1612. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it besides the forecasters who regularly write the TC advisories/outlooks/discussions.


John Cangialosi
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1611. Patrap
TWO-itis ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129848
Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.


He's got a yellow stripe on his bumper.... NASCAR speak for he is a rookie. He will be pared with someone all season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it.


He was also one of the forecasters that put up the four circles

Link

Even more evidence of how they are the least conservative team (Stewart/Cangialosi)
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT THIS IS A WEATHER ALERT FROM CAYMAN HURRICANE CENTER RED ALERT 80% VIA NHC TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT ARE ENROUTE TO LOCATION

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN



000
NOUS42 KNHC 061530 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 06 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-036 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 07/1600Z
D. 23.0N 91.0W
E. 07/1715Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 08/0330Z
D. 25.0N 93.5W
E. 08/0445Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 08/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. TASKING FOR 06/1800Z, 07/0600Z AND 07/1200Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 06/1210Z.
B. NOAA'S P-3 WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF FOUR RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO THIS AREA AT 06/2000Z TODAY AND
THEN DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS. OPERATING ALTITUDE
12,000 FT.
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
000
FZNT27 KNHC 072113
OFFN06
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

...PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AVAILABLE
THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEANS FOR A MORE DETAILED
FORECAST WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COASTLINE...

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N94W MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES TO NEAR 29N95W. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N FRI THROUGH MON.

NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING THE FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
.TONIGHT...E OF TROUGH SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING
6 TO 8 FT N OF 28N AND 8 TO 12 FT S OF 28N. W OF TROUGH E TO NE
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU...E OF 96W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. W
OF 96W N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W PART.
.THU NIGHT...W OF 93W SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. E
OF 93W SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS W PART.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W OF 95W SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6
FT IN SE SWELL. E OF 95W E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 5 TO
10 KT NE PART. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT...S OF 28N SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. N OF 28N
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.SUN AND MON...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS
5 TO 10 KT E OF 93W. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
.TONIGHT...N OF 21N E OF 94W SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT N OF 23N AND 4 TO 6 FT S OF 23N. ELSEWHERE SE TO S WINDS 10
TO 15 KT EXCEPT NW TO N WINDS NW PART. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT N OF 22N
AND 1 TO 2 FT S OF 22N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
NEAR LOW PRES.
.THU...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT NW
PART. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT N OF 22N AND 2 TO 4 FT S OF 22N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W PART.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW PART.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
N OF 21N AND 2 TO 4 FT S OF 21N.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT NE WINDS 20
KT WITHIN 90 NM OF YUCATAN COAST IN THE EVENINGS. SEAS 3 TO 5

MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
.TONIGHT...W OF 88W E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W PART.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5. N OF 28N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S PART.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT N OF 26N. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 FT N OF
26N.
.SUN AND MON...S OF 25N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. FROM 25N TO 27N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
N OF 27N SW TO W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS
5 TO 10 KT N OF 27N. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT N OF 26N. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 FT N OF
26N.
.SUN AND MON...S OF 25N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT. FROM 25N TO 27N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
N OF 27N SW TO W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

$$


WUNDERKIDCAYMAN
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Quoting StormW:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN


Under that terminology, it seems they have little choice in designating 96L a Depression rather quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1604. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it.


I've seen his name before...since the season started.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it besides the forecasters who regularly write the TC advisories/outlooks/discussions.

Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.
I think you're brain glitching. In case you want to learn a little about him:

Q & A for NHC - John Cangialosi

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96L has good structure. Reminds me of Erin 2007.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1600. Levi32
Quoting IKE:


He's 1 of the 2 that raised 95L from near 0 to 60.


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it besides the forecasters who regularly write the TC advisories/outlooks/discussions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1599. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:
Updated image....0015UTC...



Well lol, there goes the convection :O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1598. IKE
Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.


He's 1 of the 2 that raised 95L from near 0 to 60.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

depends...if it is far from center and just associated with a thunderstorm and not gradient winds they will throw that one out. Its a tough call.


Yea Hal, that might be what they're dealing with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
notice the nice outflow/expansion on the north side of the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.


He's been paired up with Stewart for a while I think. I know for sure he was with Stewart during that Special TWO when 95L got upped to 60%.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1594. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129848
1593. Story
The last mandatory evac for the Corpus Christi area was for Rita. I have lived in Corpus all my life and they will evac the island for a Cat 1 that comes too close... they base the evac warning on the tides for the Kennedy Causeway, usually several days in advance. They will can a county-wide evac if we are landfall, for anything North of a strong Cat 2, or massive rains that will inhibit city functions. At least that is how they have worked it in the past. I for one, seldom leave the area... it would take a Rita to move me out again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting houstongator:

I spent my childhood growing up in Army housing and we only had AC when we got down in Alabama. In Illinois we had to put in our own window units. The day my dad bought a cheap one and put in my room is one of the most memorable days of my life.


Yep -- in NJ we could only have window units. However, I refused to move to Key West unless they had central air! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening everybody... interesting to see 96L look like it may finally get something together....

Quoting weatherman12345:
I think they should have put the area east of the Bahamas on a low potential.
Maybe tomorrow if it's still there they'll consider it. Such areas really need to persist long enough to develop a LLC, and while there is some vorticity in the area, I have a feeling it's not down to the surface.

BTW, did anybody look at the Discussion?

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICA COAST ALONG 15W/16W S
OF 17N. A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL DRY VORTICITY CENTER IS NEAR THE
NRN EXTEND OF THE WAVE AXIS ANALYZED AS A 1006 MB LOW NEAR
17N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-19W.

This one already has a low analysed at the northern end! I have a feeling this is going to help pull the ITCZ up towards or over 10, and may in fact signal the beginning of CV season.... but we shall see what we shall see....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1590. Levi32
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alright, if they do call 96L a TD (or maybe even a TS, judging by recon's SFMR reading) at 11 you'll want to look for these things.

1) ATCF saying 'renumber from al96 to al02
2) NRL taking down 96L
3) NRL putting up 02L.NONAME
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


They might make this directly to TS Bonnie if this is the case.

depends...if it is far from center and just associated with a thunderstorm and not gradient winds they will throw that one out. Its a tough call.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jamesrainier:


What does LO stand for?


Low.

Other abbreviations they use:

DB=Disturbance
WV=Wave
TD=Tropical Depression
TS=Tropical Storm
HU=Hurricane
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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