Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2010

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A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.

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I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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837. xcool


HMMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
836. unf97
Quoting aquak9:
UNF- at this point, I'd welcome a change.

Local RedCross disaster teams worked all day yesterday, in that heat (I had to work) to get things in good shape down on Riverside avenue. We are as prepared as can be for this area.

And that's about all we can do, is be prepared.



Yeah, aquak, it has been reaching 95 degrees or higher every day for the past two weeks. I know at my house here in North Jax the mercury hit 100 or higher on 4 differnet days the past two weeks. The highest was 102 back on July 9.

But, I think we are going to see major activity picking back up in the tropics going forward. Get ready for some interesting and busy times on this blog in the days ahead.
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Getting some light rainfall here now...



Looks like most of the "action" is saying south, though.
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(((Aqua))) It is so good to see you!
Hello everyone.
I am just lurking to keep an eye on the tropics.
I sure hope all are prepared. The train is a commin.
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Quoting 7544:
draw your attention to this get back to the tropic talk

Link


Will suck to be us if it comes to fruition.
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Quoting 7544:
draw your attention to this get back to the tropic talk

Link


Let's hope not!
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831. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
830. JLPR2
Quoting 7544:
draw your attention to this get back to the tropic talk

Link


O_O
But its the CMC LOL, I dont have any respect for that model anymore. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting StormW:
Thanks for the photo Pat!

I must say, I still remember the Apollo 11 Mission as if it were yesterday...one of the most breathtaking moments as a youngin.


A week well remembered and a week some should look back to if ever one feels the urge to say we cant do great things as a Nation.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 7544:
draw your attention to this get back to the tropic talk

Link


very interesting
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Hi all. I live in East central Fl.- Port St. Lucie. My daughter who is serving in the 82nd airborne Division US Army is getting married in California Sept.4th (Blackhawk). Of course I am very Concerned as I know my kid is getting married in the heart of the hurricne season. I am very concerned. I am hoping for the best.
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UNF- at this point, I'd welcome a change.

Local RedCross disaster teams worked all day yesterday, in that heat (I had to work) to get things in good shape down on Riverside avenue. We are as prepared as can be for this area.

And that's about all we can do, is be prepared.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
824. 7544
draw your attention to this get back to the tropic talk

Link
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Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


she is a sweetheart and always has a great idea of whats going on in the tropics, plus her avi with the troll is priceless


Okay, was just checkin... there are some weird birds around here. LOL
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820. unf97
Quoting aquak9:
hi unf!! is it HOT or what!! and my poor minus key is about worn out, too.



It's been extremely hot the past couple of weeks indeed. The tropics have been quiet for the past week now, but I think things are beginning to change out there now.
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hi unf!! is it HOT or what!! and my poor minus key is about worn out, too.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Lucky Squawk!

lol


Makes you wonder, doesn't it?
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Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


HEY!! where is Mishy? and what happened to Aubbiesgirl? I haven't seen her this year, she was a reg staple on the blog


I know Aubbies husband was in the Air Force At Eglin, he may have gotten transferred and no need to worry about the tropics anymore.. As for Mishy, anyone can find a picture and post it as themselves... was why I asked the question
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812. unf97
Hello aquak!
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>The track pattern has been west as a nice bold high pressure has been sitting around the southern states, but models indication that is changing as well.

Just saw on the farm channel that the corn and soybeans in an area of Pennsylvania is shot. Only two foot high corn because of no rain for a month. The patterns will be changing now to an active season as high pressure moves to the east stopping the SAL, sunspot activity is less than even 2005, La Nina occurs, SST's warm, and Florida State predictive models continue reliability.
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Lucky Squawk!

lol
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


good afternoon Gamb, are you guys getting any of this rain yet?

I went to take the dogs down and hubby said it wasn't raining, when I got downstairs it was pouring rain. I came back up and said " Hey Jim Cantore, it's pouring rain out there..stick to your day job"....lol
No we are not but wish we would to cool it down. And yes Aqua, I won thank you
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792- excellent post!! I ALWAYS read way back, before diving in. I don't ask stupid questions, ok maybe I act a little stupid, but hey.

Kinda like walking in 2 minutes before launch, and saying hey guys, what's up?

And asking the SAME questions, over and over again....geeeez...
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806. unf97
Quoting reedzone:
The wave near Jamaica is starting to catch my attention. An anticyclone has formed over it and a small ball of vorticity has increased as well. Maybe this wave might try to pull something.


Good afternoon everyone!

Reedzone, I agree with you. Convection has increased today with this area south of Jamaica, and if this trend persists, we may have an area of interest in the short term.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Was he TampaMishy last year?


Nah...Tampamishy is legit. Very nice lady.
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Quoting jurakantaino:
A very out of line racial slurp in a nation that have in their constitution "all man are created equal" even worth; in an international forum like this one, were perhaps half or the people that participate here are of hispanic origins. Hispanic represent 45million people in your country and they have serve your country in all levels of the society with pride,and even more important shed their blood in your wars like the rest of the population . In all races, organizations and groups there are good and bad people. If you want to insult somebody don't use racism as an excuse.


How could that be racist if I am including myself? I said US=WE HISPANICS.
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Quoting jurakantaino:
A very out of line racial slurp in a nation that have in their constitution "all man are created equal" even worth; in an international forum like this one, were perhaps half or the people that participate here are of hispanic origins. Hispanic represent 45million people in your country and they have serve your country in all levels of the society with pride,and even more important shed their blood in your wars like the rest of the population . In all races, organizations and groups there are good and bad people. If you want to insult somebody don't use racism as an excuse.


Did you miss-read that post? Try it again.
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Quoting Grecojdw:
I think that a view of his blog and the definitions of the terms is a must on this blog. Otherwise, many of us non-meteorologists would be lost in the technicalities.


Go to StormW blog page. He has a list of terms there
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting btwntx08:
new update om look what pop up near jamaica
With the disturbance south/south-east of Jamaica...vorticity has increased quite a bit since this morning and is not as elongated. Visible cloud pattern shows a tell-tale sign of something attempting to organize.
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Quoting btwntx08:
he must be makin another handle as we type


Was he TampaMishy last year?
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hi gambler. I got really stupid at the beach, found 142 shark teeth. But dang it was hot.

hope your poker game was as successful.
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Quoting StormW:


Rant over.



It's not only you, Storm. It seems to me that there are more than a few posters who just jump on the blog and start asking questions or putting forth wild speculation without having (i) read Dr. Masters' blog, (ii) read so much as the previous 50 posts to catch up ... I generally read at least 100, (iii) read your blog or 456's blog (the two featured bloggers) and (iv) done even the most trivial amount of research themselves.

I sure hope you hang in there. Perhaps you could just start ignoring posters who fall into the group above. Including newcomers (high troll percentage). It's great that you are so courteous, but you have earned the right to demand some respect and to ignore those who don't give you that respect at some minimal level. There is courtesy and then there is responding amiably to outright rudeness and laziness, which just encourages it. I think the serious folk here respect your civil demeanor. But I am reminded of an old Zen saying "sometimes the best way to show someone the Path is to exclude them from it."

I'm not a newcomer (2005) and I'm not the blog police. But enough is enough ... we all need to adhere to some basic rules of the road. And we should all enforce them in our own responses ... or non-responses. Iggy the trolls, the fools, the rude and the lazy, and life gets easier quickly.

Please hang in there, Storm. To say that your contributions are invaluable and that your departure would totally change the tenor of the discourse is an understatement.

WTO
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Quoting StormW:
Thanks for the photo Pat!

I must say, I still remember the Apollo 11 Mission as if it were yesterday...one of the most breathtaking moments as a youngin.

I hardly remember it at all. When it happened I was stationed at Naval Air Station, Keflavik, Iceland and did not even hear about it until two days after it happened. Found out later that it was carried live on Icelandic TV, but we could not get it on the base.
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Quoting Dodabear:


I have to disagree with you on this. I don't think Hispanics have a bad reputation in this country. I think they Have a good one.
A very out of line racial slurp in a nation that have in their constitution "all man are created equal" even worth; in an international forum like this one, were perhaps half or the people that participate here are of hispanic origins. Hispanic represent 45million people in your country and they have serve your country in all levels of the society with pride,and even more important shed their blood in your wars like the rest of the population . In all races, organizations and groups there are good and bad people. If you want to insult somebody don't use racism as an excuse.
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Quoting StormW:


Looking at closeup VIS and RGB earlier, that is he one with the most pronounced spin.



Worth even thinking about?
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Quoting FLdewey:


Yes agreed, JFV's mental problems have no relation to his race. Maybe one day he'll find the right "partner" and have something better to do.
that just gives a picture that is mentally disturbing
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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