Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.
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I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
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Yeah I think so too. But, whatever it's just the NAM. I don't take it overly serious, just another thing to look at while I wait for something more reliable.
Why would it fizzle out? remember 92L, it started out as a ITCZ disturbance.
Lets see if it develops something or if it dissipates.
If it is small, like Humberto, they can (and will) miss it completely. Don't think they can exactly miss something large. It also depends on how far out in time.
Beats me.
West Coast of Africa to East Coast of U.S.
Using Senegal as the reference point for the west coast of Africa and:
Fort Lauderdale, FL as the reference point for the east coast of the U.S., the distance is approximately 4,330 miles.
Next time you try to top me Canes, I'll tell your mother to hide your chocolcates. LOL Besides, I thought you said you were in Kansas?
Where've you been hiding, never come on anymore.
yes. it is the Latest Image from Ramdis Full View.
i dont think the RAMDIS full view is taken as often as the other images.
here is the link RAMDIS FULL VIEW
Interesting to see two vorts east of the islands, away from the were the TW is supposed to be.
Night!
You didnt say goodnight EDF... LOL
Hey, i'm the closest without going over lol. And i'm 18, nobody has or will hide anything from me, I can easily find it lol
Interesting.
Starts to organize the system more than it did on the previous run.
It'll be interesting to see if the other models develops this feature at all.
Yes it will. I can't imagine this actually evolving into much until at least 3 days from now from what I can tell.
Vort from the E Caribbean wave moved west towards the south of PR and now a new area or 850mb vorticity is developing east of the islands, jeez, this is a very undecided wave. XD
READ POST 1612 ONCE MORE.
Moderate TS in the Bahamas.
monster anticyleon
TW with low and ITCZ Disturbance to the south
Even a 3rd blob in the bottom left down at 5N
Hard to tell what is going on but the scene def. changed on that one camera.
Published: Sunday, July 18, 2010, 8:42 PM Updated: Sunday, July 18, 2010, 9:20 PM
Give me a frigging break Mr. Suttles.
The first relief well has reached 17,864 feet, about 100 feet above and 4 feet to the side of the target area where it will break into the existing well, he said. A second relief well has reached 15,874 feet, but has been put on hold to await completion of the first well.
Suttles said workers also are sampling bubbles visible around the wellhead to assure they are not an indication of leaking of oil or natural gas or gas hydrates from the well.
He said initial tests that he did not describe indicate the bubbles are not hydrates -- a solid form of methane or natural gas formed by the combination of cold temperatures and pressures a mile below the water's surface.
But Suttles also said workers had been unsuccessful in actually capturing the bubbles, and thus additional tests must be completed to confirm that conclusion.
will likely show a deeper low on the next Cimms run. It definately
has a shot in the next 48 hours to develop.
but in the long run the Cape Verde System looks to be a monster
with that unbelievably huge Circulation.
carribean system now has a better defined center...
It might result in a total anticlimax since it is not directly associated with the tropical wave instead it is a flare up within the ITCZ that looks very impressive. You're right, I've seen systems like this develop in the last 10 years or so but they generally tend to die away after a day or so since they are not self sustaining systems.
But as always .. this is the hurricane season and any cluster of showers over warm water needs to be watched regardless. Persistence is the key so let's keep and eye on it for the time being.
If this happens look out south florida!
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