Tropical wave bringing heavy rain to northern Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave near 18N, 60W is entering the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave on Monday and Tuesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Thursday, when it will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. At that time, shear is expected to drop below 20 knots, and the wave has the potential to develop. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect that this wave will eventually enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of tropical wave entering the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
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then continue your service to America I appreciate it.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
419 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010
.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN FL THIS MORNING WHILE ONE TROPICAL WAVE
PUSHES DEEPER INTO THE GULF AND ANOTHER PUSHES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND CLOSER TO FL. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG EAST FLOW WILL CREATE FAST
MOVING SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL COVER LARGE SWATHS OF REAL ESTATE,
HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE THAT BIG AND MOST IF NOT ALL
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF. OPTED TO GO ON THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE DAY FOR THIS REASON SINCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE AT LEAST A BRIEF SHRA. TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, AND THE MODERATE EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE EAST AND TRANSITION TO
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE SAL WORKS IN AND THE EAST
FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO PUSH INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST LIMITING MASS CONVERGENCE. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCH UPWARD AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.
Thankfully the SAL that was lingering across FL specially in CFL has finally lifted out enough to clear the skies up.
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
Where does it say that we have 97L? I did notice that the NHC bumped up the percentage for both of the AOI's to 20%, throughout the season that is the benchmark for invest tagging.
i was referring to his military service. And I will thank anyone who is in the military for serving their country wherever and whenever I want.
At the end of this loop looks like GFS tries to launch a couple of them off Africa. Link
Looking at the data from SHIPS...shear is an issue til Thursday. Looks to be moving WNW...may bend back west and be somewhere near northern Cuba by Friday.
Maybe it will simply die out. Unlikely though. Maybe it will head for northern Mexico and southern Texas for system #3 for them.
Get ready for the....I think it will turn posts later in the week. The high does look to weaken some early next week.
...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A DERECHO EVENT FROM NERN NEB ESEWD ACROSS
WRN AND CNTRL IA. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE CONCERNING AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK.
ALTHOUGH THE MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS
THE MCS ORGANIZES EARLY IN THE EVENT. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR WITH ANY CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE (THE ONE CURRENTLY NEARING PUERTO RICO) ACROSS THE KEYS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE PERIODS. DEEP AND MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND 40 PERCENT
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
Link
Telling us something; the CV season is getting ready to start in earnest....As to the current wave, we will need to keep a close eye on it given the very low sheer levels out there at the moment.
Andrew
Roger that and Morning all
Hi - favorable towards development?
Yeah those are the nightmares we follow for a thousand miles. The home grown ones are bad. But these like to spread the joy around. :(
Systems follow patterns. Sometimes the pattern changes. Right now it looks locked in. Fine with me:)
I noticed the similarities in track. But that's as far as I'm going to think about that. :)
I agree, Ike, StormW - S Texas/Mex could go without another hit, esp now.
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