97L continues to grow more organized; headed for Bahamas and Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:07 PM GMT on July 20, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has continued to become more organized today, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday morning. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day, and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which should allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of steadily organizing thunderstorms, with curved bands developing to the north and east of the center. There are no signs of a surface circulation on satellite imagery or on the 10:38am EDT ASCAT pass. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but the surface winds at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic have shifted to the west this afternoon, indicating that a surface circulation may be forming just north of that location. Long-range radar loops from San Juan do not show any evidence of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today was canceled, but is scheduled to fly Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Total precipitation from 97L as predicted by the 12Z (8 am EDT) July 20, 2010 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. The latest suite of model runs from 8am EDT this morning (12Z) foresee a more northerly track for 97L into Central Florida. Several models develop 97L into a tropical storm, with both the GFDL and HWRF models predicting 97L will hit South or Central Florida as a tropical storm on Friday. Most of the models have 97L entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, but the amount of time 97L has over the Gulf may be limited to a day or less if the storm ends up exiting into the Gulf near Tampa Bay. The NOGAPS model predicts a more southerly path across South Florida and into Louisiana.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
One factor potentially aiding development of 97L will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. The primary detriment to development of 97L over the next three days will probably be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. If the center forms close to the coast of the Dominican Republic, the high mountains of Hispaniola may also be a problem for the storm. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 30%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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do you see lots of dry air here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting antonio28:
Go away 97L I am sick of the rain! PR need some rest!

I second that!!! if 97L does not get a circulation soon to suck this convection away the VI's and PR are going to erode away and be gone.....
Either that or it is going to be a meso scale complex which start to feed it's own convection and we will have a TS on top of us...
BUT
Remember it could be worse....it could have developed way east of here and stalled over us like this and wiped the islands clean....
AND
Remember
Every joule of energy removed now is one less for later in the season..... :)
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
1023. ChillinInTheKeys 6:16 PM CDT on July 20, 2010
Government: Seepage near BP cap coming from another well.Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen also said five leaks in and around BP's well are more like "drips," and aren't yet reason to worry.



Yeah, buddy. I wonder if ol' Thad would mind too much if I happened to linger over his carpet at home with just a little drip! 5 leaks in and around? Hhhhmmm, seems that at least that combined would constitute more than just a "drip!" Geeeesh, so what else is leaking? What are we doing? Are the other 4 leaks from wells? Who do they belong to? How long have they been leaking? Is anything being done to stop them?

I'm sorry, I've had respect for ol' Thad through all this, but it's definitely waning.


I have to agree. BP has inculcated a culture - at least at the executive level - where "truthiness" is not only acceptable but expected. Thad Allen seems to be picking that up ... I'll bet he lands a nice consulting job with big oil after this is eventually over.

I missed the media briefing ... did he happen to mention a storm brewing and what effect that might have on plans for the next couple of weeks?
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in tell we see a CLOSED CIRCULATION no TD tonight
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1123. Patrap
Im gonna wait for the THREE..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129411
1122. xcool



<< LOL
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8:00 Pm update still 60 % .....:(

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i'am sorry you are incorrect no cookie for you


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
1119. xcool
YEAH YEAH
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note this

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET
FORMED
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1117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
jasoniscoolman2010x 11:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2010

a copy of this post has been forwarded to the NHC and DR.JEFF MASTERS expect email soon
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Can we have about 100 more people show the 8:00 update? I only saw it 10 times already.
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
I SEE LOTS OF DRY AIR WEST OF invest 97L
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1113. FLdewey
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
UP TO 70% AT 8PM UPDATE..ITS GOING UP TO 70% AT 8PM..


Now go put some Totinos in the microwave and take a break.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting ocal44:
Iam on Ocala FL,Love this sight


Are you kidding? Ocala is my favorite town in the WHOLE WIDE WORLD!!! At least I like it much more than my cultural-vaccum town Boca Raton.
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Hmmm... Our local met Basil Dean says effects in the SE and Central Bahamas on Thursday, NW Bahamas on Friday, and they are not expecting more than TD conditions with the passage.... guess they're not buying that Cat 1 hype from on here... however he did refer to 97L as "that blob of convection". . . think he reads the blog? LOL

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Quoting whs2012:
THANK YOU Tropical Nonsense! How else do you learn, without making mistakes! Sorry, Hurricane 101, but I can't say where a hurricane is going right on the spot after being on this blog for a few months. Yes, some of the stuff I say is inaccurate, but I'm just stating stuff using the knowledge I've learned, and hoping that if I'm wrong, someone could correct me. If you took General Psychology, it's called Operant Conditioning (conditioning meaning learning)


Hang in there whs2012! This is a great Forum to learn and to make friends :)
Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
hey i was 1st too post it so what do i win
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1108. Drakoen
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30687
1106. JLPR2
Ok ok, I'll open the crow salad bar!
XD
LOL!
No change, I bet the NHC is waiting for a tighter circulation and a better convective pattern, aka a red blob of convection.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Landfall Points

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
I expect 80% Circle at 8 PM for 97L on NHC

and then a T.D. at 11:00 PM Or 2:00 AM depending on when they announce.
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hey people i need some help , im new. How do you post loop images?
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 202331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET
FORMED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... 60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC... HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
1101. tkeith
1099. Drakoen 6:32 PM CDT on July 20, 2010ya gotta be quick to beat Taz...
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Quoting DestinJeff:


shall I change my avatar back to Comic Book Guy?


Evening, Jeff! Hope you're doing well this evening. And no, you have the best avatar right now.
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1099. Drakoen
.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30687
no upgrade


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET
FORMED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... 60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC... HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1097. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



Please don't make stuff up, you're just confusing the public. The next TWO comes ot in about 10 minutes. Patience.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1094. whs2012
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
I'm sticking to my original theory. We'll have ourselves a tropical storm by tonight & we'll see this take a north easterly turn & hit the carolinas as a major hurricane.


TS by tonight?! That's a little bit extreme, don't you think? lol, and IMO, east of florida is out of the picture...sorry...unless he does some super rapid intensification, sorry buddy.
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1093. tkeith
Quoting DestinJeff:


shall I change my avatar back to Comic Book Guy?
does he wear pants?

local mets here are perkin their ears up on this invest...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



I guess some are desperate for tropical development. Don't worry, you won't be crying to sleep this year like in 2009. There will be more disturbances after this one.

Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
1091. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Don't forget Patrap!
Are conditions in the GOM going to be more favorable or unfavorable for 97L?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1090. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


shall I change my avatar back to Comic Book Guy?


By the time you do I'll have started Homerisms.

MMMMMmmmm invest.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
sorry all but the last thing we need on here is some joker
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1088. unf97
Quoting whs2012:
I also want to see what that wave off the coast of the Yucatan will do once it emerges in the Gulf. Will it interact with 97L? hmmm....


Not likely. This system over the Yucatan currently has been progressing steadily in a west - west/northwest motion for the past few days. It will likely continue moving through the BOC and eventually into Northern Mexico.
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Quoting robert88:
I wouldn't worry too much at this time once it enters the GOM. Models want to weaken it seeing unfavorable conditions. My guess is there will be drier air and shear in place. That would be a blessing for the oil spill if that pans out. Right now it seems the keys and S FL would get the worst conditions. It looks like it's best window for strengthening will be before it reaches the GOM. As we know in the tropics things could change and 97L could become more of a problem for Gulf coast residents. Just a wait and see scenario.


Look Like its nothing Big except for the 5.4 Millon poeple who live in south east florida. Way to be Kind!
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1086. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
I'm sticking to my original theory. We'll have ourselves a tropical storm by tonight & we'll see this take a north easterly turn & hit the carolinas as a major hurricane.
i'am sorry you are incorrect no cookie for you
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Convection firing over the center, if you look real close on the water vapor image you can see the clouds being grabbed by the center and swirling.

Water Vapor
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Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
I'm sticking to my original theory. We'll have ourselves a tropical storm by tonight & we'll see this take a north easterly turn & hit the carolinas as a major hurricane.




this is not going any where near the carolinas
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Quoting Tazmanian:




nic try the nhc forcast has not been UPDATE




you been re ported


:P
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Quoting AllStar17:


Don't post that if it is not real. I don't have the 8:00 pm TWO yet. If you are indeed making that up, you could/probably will get banned




i this re ported him
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1080. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting whs2012:
I also want to see what that wave off the coast of the Yucatan will do once it emerges in the Gulf. Will it interact with 97L? hmmm....


They are touching!!!!!
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I'm sticking to my original theory. We'll have ourselves a tropical storm by tonight & we'll see this take a north easterly turn & hit the carolinas as a major hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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