Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

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Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.


Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

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There she is...
FULL IMAGE
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There it is! 23.7N 77.9W, just off the SW tip of Andros Island.

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MLC is still ruling this system.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Just my two cents worth - I think the COC is that bright red spot just south of that little island and just east of the big one. I concur w/ others, it's zipping along. Fairly constant motion of 302-303 degrees wnw. It'll be interesting to see how the mods digest the last 2 or 3 hours.

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AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE
ON STANIEL CAY IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS.
So much for shear. Bonnie is going to strenthen now.
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hello everyone anyways looking at bonnie i still see a disorganized storm sure the appearance of the convection looks good but the center is to the south of the convection and until i see convection wrapping around the center this will only be a weak tropical storm when it makes landfall tomorrow then it goes into the gulf and that could be a totally different scenario.
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Looks like the NHC settles the fight for now, plus the image Levi posted in 321 supports it. Center is directly south of the convective circle, and on the southern edge of the convective circle.

G'night all.
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The ECMWF does agree with me though....it never had this as more than a wave, which also means it was wrong in thinking this would never be Bonnie at all.
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Interesting light in the center, as if Bonnie Dearest is beginning to see, perhaps?

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have the winds increased?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
337. 7544
no two yet hmmmmm
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Quoting Levi32:


Yes well, I enjoy doing that lol. It feels good to know that a brain can outsmart the machine that the brain created, don't you know? Lol.


good comeback!! LOL
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Levi your the Man! Ill let you pick out the crow! Gulp
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


Wow! with all due respect, levi - you are going against all the models with that statement.

My favorite expression - "If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck..."
(translation - i think Bonnie is strengthening right now and will eat crow if she is not or if the NHC doesn't mention a possible center reformation)


Yes well, I enjoy doing that lol. It feels good to know that a brain can outsmart the machine that the brain created, don't you know? Lol. That is, when I actually do outsmart the computer lol.
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Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
22/2345 UTC 23.3N 76.1W T2.5/2.5 BONNIE
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Quoting 1celia70:
THE UUL SEEMS TO BE ZIPPING ALONG ..... WILL IT GO INTO TX ..OR SLOW DOWN ...


Should continue for a while until the front grabs it.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
In looking at recent RGB satellite imagery, I would estimate the center to exist in the SE quadrant of the convection right now.
What are you looking at with the 2am?
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Quoting Levi32:


Really just a glorified tropical wave right now from all appearances. I still think this could open right back up into a wave over the gulf and lose its name. We'll see how it goes.


Wow! with all due respect, levi - you are going against all the models with that statement.

My favorite expression - "If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck..."
(translation - i think Bonnie is strengthening right now and will eat crow if she is not or if the NHC doesn't mention a possible center reformation)
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NHC estimating the center at 23.8N 77.5W...looks about right to me.
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Okay, the NHC is putting it at 77.5W 23.8N
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
325. Bonz
Updated!

23.8 77.5
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In looking at recent RGB satellite imagery, I would estimate the center to exist in the SE quadrant of the convection right now.
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Cmon people take off your Met Cap and just look at the progress of Bonnie! Im going to eat so much Crow. Levi, Way to stick to your guns!
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Hello everybody!!,I has been a member since 2008,and looking at the present satellite presentation,if the center is not in the middle of the heavy convention,this will be a first for me??,the banding seem to be wrapping around the COD center,let's see what the HH said,also I believe it will be around 50-55 MPH storm.
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Center is SSW of the ball of convection. Recon is sensing it due to the winds and is hooking towards it right now.

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is it just me or does bonnie look healthier? like kinda creepy actually
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Still no winds reported with a W-ern component and they're S of 24.0N.
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the UUL seems to be zipping along...where is it headed?
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Second that! weird lassie...

Quoting weatherwart:
South of the center of convection, really? Looks are deceiving, then. What a strange storm.
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Laughs....well, this storm is weak now, but could be a little stronger later.... :-) that might give them something to talk about!!

Quoting Bonz:


LOL. Yep. You can't imagine the jokes that are flying around my house now with this storm.
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South of the center of convection, really? Looks are deceiving, then. What a strange storm.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
This may also help. Right now, my theory is that its just SE of the ball of convection. If the center is there, then we should see the ball of convection kind of wobble SEward toward the center.
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Quoting Levi32:


South of the convection. Recon will confirm soon.


I am no expert - but i think we are seeing the beginnings of a center reformation. Unfortunately, though, the 2Am advisory won't reflect any of this because the HH are running out of time for the advisory.
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Quoting 7544:
hot towers now


Hot towers are only located around an eye wall in a strengthening hurricane.

This is a 40mph TS
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Quoting chrisdscane:

directly south?


Looks south of the ball to me but it's hard to pinpoint with IR imagery. Recon will give us the answer soon.
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Quoting atmosweather:


ASCAT and surface obs have not really even shown a defined, fully closed LLC at all...I would be surprised too. It's ragged and exposed.


Really just a glorified tropical wave right now from all appearances. I still think this could open right back up into a wave over the gulf and lose its name. We'll see how it goes.
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308. Bonz
Quoting Goldenblack:
Gotta love that avatar...Bonnie...(am I right...lol)



LOL. Yep. You can't imagine the jokes that are flying around my house now with this storm.
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307. 7544
hot towers now
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Quoting southfla:
If recon finds west winds over more than a few measurements during their flight I will be surprised.


ASCAT and surface obs have not really even shown a defined, fully closed LLC at all...I would be surprised too. It's ragged and exposed.
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Wonder where "BOONIE" will go.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Gotta love that avatar...Bonnie...(am I right...lol)

Quoting Bonz:
LOL. I don't ever think I've seen my name so much in print!

Waiting for that 2 AM update and then time for bed.
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Quoting Levi32:


South of the convection. Recon will confirm soon.

directly south?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
Quoting texwarhawk:
look at the 5:15 UTZ rainbow
now tell me that doesnt look impressive


It doesn't :P
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Quoting Levi32:
The center is not centered under the convective ball based on this:



Okay, you know with that image, now I really see the center at the surface is just SE of the ball of convection. Based on the sat appearance, looks like a 50 mph wind TS (if it were under that convection ball, I would say something like 60 or 65 mph).

Quoting synthvol:
WTNT43 KNHC 230249
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

..... THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO REACH BOONIE AROUND 06Z.

My "Boonie" lies over the ocean??!!



ROFLMAO!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


The dreaded pinhole eye......not really just a hot tower but, i thought i would at least get a chuckle..
Yep--shes tryin to get ligit! Shes a small little baby!
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Quoting weatherwart:
Evening.. or morning, guys. Where is the center of this thing? I'm looking and seeing it around 77.4W and 24.4N. Am I close?



thats the great debate
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
Quoting chrisdscane:



so just to the left?


South of the convection. Recon will confirm soon.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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