Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Bonnie Makes Her Debut

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:32 AM GMT on July 23, 2010

Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

Based on information from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD Three to Tropical Storm Bonnie. As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Bonnie was at 23.4N, 76.5W which is 285 miles southeast of Miami, Florida. Bonnie has maximum winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Bonnie will pass over the Everglades/Florida Keys Friday and cross into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night/early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts south of Lake Okeechobee to Key West.

Fig. 1 IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1216AM EDT.

Threats
NHC is expecting 2-4 inches of rain over south Florida due to Bonnie and 3-5 inches over the Bahamas. They are forecasting a storm surge of 1-2 feet. Tropical storm force winds are expected in the Bahamas starting Thursday night, and they are forecast to arrive in southern Florida Friday morning.

Impacts and Emergency Preparedness
As of 1130PDT EDT, the Key West NWS office is indicating that there are no evacuation orders in effect or planned for Monroe County (the Keys). Small craft are being advised to stay in port and be well secured to their docks. Two shelters will be opened, Key West High School and Stanley Switlik Elementary School in Marathon.

Most of the ships at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site and other skimming ships have been ordered to seek safe harbor. In the statement, Adm. Allen said ships that operate the ROVs will be the last out and the first back to keep the wellhead observations going as long as possible.

Forecast/Model Assessment
The track models and ensemble models show remarkably good agreement for Bonnie's path across south Florida and towards southeast Louisiana. The current intensity forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain strong tropical storm force winds (40-50 knots) until it makes landfall in Louisiana, with a 15% chance of becoming a hurricane before then. However, the global models (GFS, Canadian GEM, NOGAPS) and the hurricane dynamical models (GFDL, Navy GFDL, and HWRF) do not intensify Bonnie at all. The statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM) support the intensity forecast.

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

Next Update
Jeff will have an update sometime Friday morning.

Categories: Hurricane

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1151. coffeecrusader 1:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
This year is shaping up to be a bust. Too many ULL's and too much SAL. Waves coming off Africa are being choked by all the dry air. Guess upward MJO, record high SST's, and La Nina are not enough to get things going. Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 254

1153. weatherguy03 1:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
TS Bonnie Update w/ Video Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

1154. chrisdscane 1:08 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting StormW: SO IT WOULD GO WEST? Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 738

1155. BenBIogger 1:08 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting StormW: If ya go here, you can pick the variables you want. ECMWF Thanks. Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

1156. gordydunnot 1:09 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Each storm always got a little wrinkle to it Bonnie may go down as the storm that was moving faster than her surface winds.But is is dropping some nice rain.Perfect environment to do nothing. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1158. tkeith 1:09 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting chrisdscane: SO IT WOULD GO WEST? the caps locks button is right above the shift button... Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

1159. Chicklit 1:10 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting wxhatt: LOL, he is getting it now though... He'll probably be on a plane to NOLA in time for dinner...or maybe Biloxi. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

1160. BobinTampa 1:10 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
it's a little chippy on here today. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?? Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

1161. wxhatt 1:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting coffeecrusader: This year is shaping up to be a bust. Too many ULL's and too much SAL. Waves coming off Africa are being choked by all the dry air. Guess upward MJO, record high SST's, and La Nina are not enough to get things going. I sure hope those inhibitors continue. There is still the meat of the season to go through though, and weather patterns could change... Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 834

1163. mcluvincane 1:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Looks like hurakat was on the money with Bonnie.. IT nailed the forecast. Congrats to you hurakat if your out there. Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

1164. IKE 1:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting tkeith: anyone think they'll downgrade it at next TWO? Yes...I do. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1165. KATRINABILOXIGIRL 1:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: He'll probably be on a plane to NOLA in time for dinner. As long as he stays away from us here. Last time he came here wasn't good at all... Member Since: July 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 324

1167. StormHype 1:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting wxhatt: LOL, he is getting it now though... He better milk it for viewers. This might be as bad as it gets. Sun will be out by 3pm. All the lazy kiddies normally on this blog will oversleep and miss most of it. Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163

1168. tkeith 1:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: He'll probably be on a plane to NOLA in time for dinner. good news for us Chicklit :) Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

1169. BenBIogger 1:12 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting MiamiWarnings: I want my TS winds, dammit, where are they? Offshore. Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

1172. txag91met 1:12 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
NE at 33 mph at buoy offshore--whoo hooo. Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

1173. Chicklit 1:12 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL: As long as he stays away from us here. Last time he came here wasn't good at all... awww...sorry. added biloxi as an afterthought. Evidently the NOLA plane found coordinates slightly more northerly. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

1174. tkeith 1:13 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting IKE: Yes...I do. me too... Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

1175. KATRINABILOXIGIRL 1:13 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting StormW: Be careful what you wish for this season. AMEN!! Member Since: July 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 324

1176. QMiami 1:13 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
... A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AND METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES... ... FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS... ... FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS... AT 841 AM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A RAINBAND EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF HALLANDALE TO 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH BAY VILLAGE TO 15 MILES EAST OF OCEAN REEF... MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT... MIAMI BEACH... BAL HARBOUR... AVENTURA... ALLAPATTAH... BROWNSVILLE... this is my area and i'm on the bay 15th floor not so bad yet steady rain a little gusty Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 124

1177. REELHOUSE 1:13 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Now is a good time to vote in the WUNDERPOLL!!! I bet we can all get it right! Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

1178. wxhatt 1:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: He'll probably be on a plane to NOLA in time for dinner...or maybe Biloxi. LOL, I know, He's always on it! Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 834

1180. Chicklit 1:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
The further right it stays probably the stronger it will get due to the beater to its west. WVLoop Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

1181. AlexEmmett 1:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting divdog: Hey Jeff Nice call on this being a high ts or hurricane before it hit land. noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooootttt!!!!!!!!!!!!! okok gtfo and leave the doctor alone

1182. hurricanejunky 1:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting rossclick: pretty heavy line moving in Mornin Ross. I guess food chasers in Del Ray is out of the question now... Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2875

1183. txag91met 1:15 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting StormW: Be careful what you wish for this season. Yes, this storm is a small system...but later on we could get a much, much bigger system similar to Alex again, and all this wish casters would wish that wouldn't happen. Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

1184. dolphingalrules 1:15 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
In West Broward Cty...No wind at all..It is raining..like a normal afternoon...where is Cantore? I also know that Good Morning's weatheman is on South Beach.. Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 177

1185. StormHype 1:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting mcluvincane: Looks like hurakat was on the money with Bonnie.. IT nailed the forecast. Congrats to you hurakat if your out there. You're right. Probably why blog is so quiet... along with the fact that so many kids stayed up all night watching hopefully for RI during Dmax that didn't happen (as expected) and now will sleep in until noon. Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163

1186. cutlerbay32 1:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: The first real rainbands from Bonnie are just coming ashore in Dade County right now. I've a felling that commute won't be so nice in another 15 minutes or so... You were right on. In Brickell it is verrry dark outside now but at the same time the wind and rain look quite moderate from my 5th floor view. Just glad I got an early start this morning. Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

1187. hurricanejunky 1:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: Bonnie taking a jog to the NW, looks to come ashore in Miami Bay. 1KM RADAR She's been moving north of the forecast points for the last 24 hours it seems... Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2875

1188. MiamiHurricanes09 1:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Nasty rain band moving onshore. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 848 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010 FLZ072-074-172-173-231330- METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL- COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL- 848 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AND METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES... ...FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS... ...FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS... AT 841 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A RAINBAND EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF HALLANDALE TO 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH BAY VILLAGE TO 15 MILES EAST OF OCEAN REEF...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT... MIAMI BEACH... BAL HARBOUR... AVENTURA... ALLAPATTAH... BROWNSVILLE... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES. RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. LAT...LON 2567 8015 2567 8016 2569 8019 2573 8016 2573 8023 2560 8031 2551 8032 2547 8020 2553 8018 2553 8017 2535 8024 2535 8025 2539 8026 2547 8021 2537 8030 2587 8036 2609 8024 2609 8010 TIME...MOT...LOC 1245Z 106DEG 15KT 2602 7999 2592 8007 2580 8011 2568 8011 2554 8010 2545 8009 2532 8005 $$ GARCIA Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1189. hydrus 1:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting StormW: If the pattern stays like that, yes. Good morning Storm. I cannot help but wonder where 456 and Levi are....We have a T.S. affecting Miami. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

1190. wxhatt 1:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: The further right it stays probably the stronger it will get due to the beater to its west. Your right, It's getting out of the ULL way. Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 834

1191. jeffs713 1:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting MiamiWarnings: i know, strom! but why are we under a ts warnings, if the coditions are not there? Because the potential for conditions to be there are. Its just like a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. You can be under one, but not have a severe thunderstorm or tornado overhead. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

1192. Chicklit 1:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
I don't think it's a good picnic day in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale today. Many people will be surprised at the strength of even of a tropical storm. Maybe a good wake up call. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

1193. dearmas 1:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Ok so why does WU have Tampa under a Tropical Storm Warning but NHC does not? Help me understand !!! Thanks :) Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 115

1195. StonedCrab 1:18 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Here is Channel 7's LIVE CAM from N Bay Village Member Since: October 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 270

1196. weatherwart 1:18 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting hydrus: Good morning Storm. I cannot help but wonder where 456 and Levi are....We have a T.S. affecting Miami. Levi was on early this morning. Finally went to bed after the 0200 update. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

1198. myway 1:18 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting dolphingalrules: In West Broward Cty...No wind at all..It is raining..like a normal afternoon...where is Cantore? I also know that Good Morning's weatheman is on South Beach.. Tootsies Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 442

1199. rossclick 1:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting hurricanejunky: Mornin Ross. I guess food chasers in Del Ray is out of the question now... Doesn't mean I cant get some grilled wings and afternoon brew lol Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

1200. BenBIogger 1:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Quoting txag91met: Yes, this storm is a small system...but later on we could get a much, much bigger system similar to Alex again, and all this wish casters would wish that wouldn't happen. I would not be surprise if a major hurricane makes landfall in the U.S this August or September.... Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

1201. ElConando 1:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Saw some gusts over 40 with that squall. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

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