Bonnie weakens to a tropical depression
Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearing the end of its traverse of South Florida, and passage over land has significantly disrupted the small storm. Satellite images show almost no heavy thunderstorms near Bonnie's center of circulation, and the center is now exposed to view. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Key West radar shows that Bonnie dumped very little rain on South Florida--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm were about four inches over a small region southwest of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. This low has brought an increasing amount of wind shear to Bonnie today, and shear has increased from 20 knots this morning to 25 knots this afternoon. Surface observations in South Florida currently don't show any tropical storm force winds. Bonnie's top winds today were at Fowey Rocks, which had sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.
Figure 1. Satellite image of Bonnie from NASA's MODIS instrument, taken at 17:10 UTC July 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA/.
Track Forecast for Bonnie
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the three previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. Assuming Bonnie doesn't dissipate over the next day, the storm's winds, coupled with a likely storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will drive oil into a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands. However, the current NHC forecast has Bonnie making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predicts potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday.
Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.
Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has been disrupted by its passage over land, and it will take at least six hours for the storm to reorganize once it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This process will be hindered by the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 - 30 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, or may even destroy Bonnie. Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm, and I give a 30% chance it will dissipate over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. The GFDL model predicts Bonnie could hit the Gulf Coast as a 50 mph tropical storm, but the other major models such as the HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS show a much weaker storm. I don't give Bonnie any chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 2 pm Saturday at 4% (5pm advisory.)
If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 5pm EDT advisory:
Buras, LA 30%
New Orleans 28%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 30%
Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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SO COLDER WINTERS IN sfl???
God bless you my friend. 10 hrs was enough for me, cannot imagine 24!!!! I imagine we had sustained winds in the 70-80 mph range for the 10 hrs of Ike..I wish I could remember when Ike really started, I think it was around 1030 that night and all I remember is being outside in the morning and see this little last gust of wid blow through the tree in my front yard and it was over, I think around 8-9 am somewhere in between. And yes, Ike was quite an experience!
5 out of 6 for me have been at night...it's not too fun LOL!
I didn't remember one way or the other if she was, going off of those pictures (especially the first one) I would have had not problem saying she was annular if I didn't see the outer-most edges of the storm. The interior definitely looks annular.
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF FORT MYERS FLORIDA NEAR 26.4N 83.4W
MOVING WNW NEAR 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A SMALL REGION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ON BOTH EAST AND WEST SIDES OF
THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOW ONLY WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N84.5W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
Warm PDO supports cold winters in the SE US like you had this past winter. Cold PDO supports warm in the southeast US. The Pacific northwest, Canada, and Alaska will see the full force of the northern hemisphere winter in 2010-2011.
naw bro its safe rip now its in 40kt of shear i hate to RIp storms but u know... rcon andd satelite say it all the only reason the nhc hasnt made it an open low is because they want no surprises
As Ike was finishing coming onshore at the north end of Trinity Bay, I was an hour north of Dallas getting a little wind and rain from him and the clouds were very obviously from a tropical cyclone (to anyone who has ever been in one).
Woah! That looks amazingly weird. Didn't think Ike looked like that when it made landfall.
Yeah that's what people who haven't been through a strong hurricane can't really get their heads around...when the winds are THAT strong for more than about 3 or 4 hours continuously, unless you're sleeping through it, it's just remarkable how insane you feel and how you're just in awe.
looks like a octupus's tentecal wrapped up lol
Nope. All the better to freak you out. You can hear everything. But have to imagine what made the noise. Lol.
And I thank my lucky stars I most likely won't have to go through a winter like last years LOL! Unbelievably cold for this far south...and almost never-ending.
actually snowed here in dade county
I have to admit tho it was cool, until about 3 or 4 am when I wanted to get a lil sleep and as I close my eyes all I hear is that sound...and you know what I am talking about! I sat up in the recliner and said "this is not normal!" LOL.
thanks. my little eye is not good at spotting vorticity until it's obvious. i use the different loops too. i have been told to use rgb for spin spotting, but i'm still not good at it:(
I bet! You guys in Florida had a worse winter than we did lol! I still have pictures of temperature maps of Alaska averaging 5 degrees warmer than most of Florida on several mornings lol. We were rather warm last winter.
So you think this will be a warm winter for the Southeast?
Yeah. Just looking at that sat shot his weird outer bands were already to the top of Louisiana. That was one big Bubba. He followed us to Longview. Knocked out the power at the motel. Blew the water into the second story. They passed out extra towels to the first floor because the rain flooded. It just got wet on the second floor. He knocked down trees on peoples houses. Incredible!
yeah...LOL. That is how my son was during Humberto. What was that, what was that,what was that. :)
Goodnight everyone, lets see what tomorrow, well today... XD brings.
thanks! i have seen the vorticity maps posted on here lots, but i never knew where they got them
Likely yes, especially after December.
Oh boy. Watch it.
Lol. I don't think it's much to really worry about, but it's just pretty fun to watch. I have a feeling it will collapse.
Lol. Exactly.
Hope so. :)
I just realized something...the strongest hurricane to strike the U.S. in both the 1990s (Andrew) and the 2000s (Charley) passed directly over my house...three decades in a row maybe? LOL!
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