Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Levi32:


Lol. I don't think so.

I like the term "Mischeif" myself! :o)
and disagree with post 487...

Quoting sammywammybamy:
Look at Miami...

Huh. That is interesting. Was surprised to see Va Beach up that high. I thought it would have been NO or Tampa #2.

Quoting unf97:


This is a fairly broad question. Do you mean what point in longitude or latitude?

both

as in lets say the coordinate 24N 77W has the distinction of having more storms tracks pass through it than any other point in the Atlantic Basin

Quoting hunkerdown:
ahhh...coordinate would be the position, i.e longitude and latitude

It's still a broad question. He is looking for a fixed position of where most storms pass through in the Atlantic basin right?

Gaining a bit of strength.



AOI

Quoting unf97:


It's still a broad question. He is looking for a fixed position of where most storms pass through in the Atlantic basin right?

no, he is looking for the fixed position that have had the most storms pass through

Quoting unf97:


It's still a broad question. He is looking for a fixed position of where most storms pass through in the Atlantic basin right?

yes and that is not a broad question or else you wouldn't use the term fixed point

I can't wait for that ole mischief myself. Good times ahead.

Quoting atmoaggie:

All TCs:


As for the world, The Philippines might have an argument.

Typhoons 1980 to 2005:

LOL!! Looks like my Chickens scratched up the map!!

Quoting bappit:
"Mischeif" is a good spelling for an obnoxious phrase. Just look at the death and destruction done by tropical systems or simple interruption of daily life (see CanesFanatUT and southlousiana's posts) that can cause significant economic repercussions. Not saying that anyone using the mischief phrase is a wishcaster, of course. The term is just inappropriate.

That's a little over done, honestly. I wouldn't say inappropriate.

It's just a term they are using to tell folks on this blog "hey watch this area - I'm not saying it's Wilma Pt 2 but you might want to take a look".

Quoting ElConando:


You might get some gusts near 30 mph look out for it.

I live in the woods, essentially. I doubt the gusts will be that high with all of the wind drag I have surrounding me.

Now, if I went down to the lakefront, yeah, maybe.

Quoting hunkerdown:
no, he is looking for the fixed position that have had the most storms pass through

OK just wanted to clarify. Sorry about that. Based on the tropical cyclone history map someone posted on this page a bit earlier I would hedge a guess and say 25.0N and 74.0 or 75.0 W.

Not sure if this has already been posted...12Z ECMWF shows little to nothing significant through August 2nd.

Here's the eastern Atlantic view...nothing.

Quoting Orcasystems:
Gaining a bit of strength.



AOI

Orca, what is that? sometimes I do not understand just a post of a map..

is that something forming????

Quoting atmoaggie:

All TCs:


As for the world, The Philippines might have an argument.

Typhoons 1980 to 2005:

Your kid take a crayon to that map???

I can't even see the Philippines. Geez

Quoting DestinJeff:


every 1 mb drop in pressure brings 5 bloggers back on

Is slowly dropping.... key word...S l o w l y

Good afternoon all. May I celebrate the lack of impact from Bonnie yet? I haven't gotten a bit of rain or any breezes yet. I'll gladly take all of these weak-things mother nature can send.

Atmo: I'll keep an eye out for those pesky falling pine-needles though. We've got a few of them around here ready to break off at any minute. They might even bend a blade of grass on my lawn as they impact. (Shudder the thought)

LOL!!! Bonnie?! Nya nya!

Quoting seflagamma:



Orca, what is that? sometimes I do not understand just a post of a map..

is that something forming????

It shows the latest HH information and location of the Vortex reports.

For Bonnie.. or what ever you want to call it now :)

Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Huh. That is interesting. Was surprised to see Va Beach up that high. I thought it would have been NO or Tampa #2.

Return frequency for landfalling TCs in an area is prolly the best way to gauge this. (CAVEAT: Some areas simply didn't have people along the coast for substantial portions of our records going back to the mid-1800s).

For cat 1:



For cat 3:



More here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/basics/return.shtml

Do you guys think there will be a persistence in the atmospheric patterns that would continue to all storms to go north of hispanola but generally westward? Accuweather has a graphic that shows a congregation of tracks that's pretty scary for Florida.Link

Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Your kid take a crayon to that map???

I can't even see the Philippines. Geez

Nor Taiwan.

Let's lay some bodies out and talk about mischief.

Quoting DestinJeff:
This season is a bus.

no, a bust



or a a bust...

Quoting sammywammybamy:
Florida Hurricane Capital of the World?

and this is major's only! not counting Cat2 and below!

and that chart is wrong because hurricane Andrew was in August 24, 1992 not september

Quoting Hurricanes101:


both

as in lets say the coordinate 24N 77W has the distinction of having more storms tracks pass through it than any other point in the Atlantic Basin

Oh you gave the answer Hurricanes101. I did not realize it at first LOL. I hedged a guess a few posts back but it was a close guess to the actual answer.

That makes sense the answer because it is at this point where many cyclones recurve out into the Atlantic.

As far as possible U.S. landfalls for the remainder of the season, it is still just too early to make a definitive forecast as to where the majority of TC's will track during the remainder of the season. That being said, I do not personally expect that the U.S. will make it through the 2010 hurricane season without multiple hurricane landfalls and at least one major land falling event. It is important to remember that 30 days is a very long time in attempting to forecast the probable atmospheric set up with regards to the upper level steering currents. Even then, it is still possible for an unforeseen trough to come along and steer a particular TC farther N and away from the U.S. Consequently, any respective track forecasts outside of 7-10 days carries a very large degree of possible error. Regardless, I do anticipate that Florida will encounter at least 1-2 hurricane landfalls before this particular hurricane season comes to a close. I also expect that there will be at least 2-3 land falling hurricanes and at least one major hurricane landfall in the U.S. during the season. We will just simply have to wait and see what actually does materialize during the succeeding 3 months or so.

adrian

Quoting bappit:

Sounds like the law of small numbers at work. Here's a Wikipedia reference.

I tend to agree. however one cannot ignore the fact of how the season set up, although not law, but just a point of reference... Simular to what we spoke of earlier on the probability of precipitation... when it is a 10% chance of rain it really means that when the day sets up this way 100 times it rains 10 times.. Simular in a greater way to the tropical season.... If the AB high and other variables such as el nino, la nina, sst, shear and the strengths of all of those factors and more will affect the tropics on the greater scale. IMO all of these things will present tendencies in the weather patterns and therefore increasing the probability that storms will go certian places... Not every time since the variables are not a constant.

Quoting unf97:


Uh You gave the answer Hurricanes101. LOL. I hedged a guess a few posts back but it was a close guess to the actual answer.

That makes sense the answer becuase it is at this point where many cyclones recurve out into the Atlantic.

it was an example, the question was not a trivia question; I do not know the answer, I was looking for one.

Almost looks like what's left of Bonnie in the north-eastern GOM is moving due west or almost stationary.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


it was an example, the question was not a trivia question; I do not know the answer, I was looking for one.

Oh OK LOL.. I thought you gave the actual answer. Well then that remains a very good question to pose to an expert like StormW or Dr. Masters.

Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I tend to agree. however one cannot ignore the fact of how the season set up, although not law, but just a point of reference... Simular to what we spoke of earlier on the probability of precipitation... when it is a 10% chance of rain it really means that when the day sets up this way 100 times it rains 10 times.. Simular in a greater way to the tropical season.... If the AB high and other variables such as el nino, la nina, sst, shear and the strengths of all of those factors and more will affect the tropics on the greater scale. IMO all of these things will present tendencies in the weather patterns and therefore increasing the probability that storms will go certian places... Not every time since the variables are not a constant.

of course I could be just stupid...

Quoting hunkerdown:
no, a bust



or a a bust...

Nice bust...

97oW 22oN in Gulf of Mexico. Is it an optical illusion? It looks like circulation. Even so its right on the shoreline so no real chance of further development. Just looked at satellite and it caught my eye.

Thanks hurricane23 and StormW...it will be interesting in a few weeks.

thanks!

Quoting turtlegirl9:
97oW 22oN in Gulf of Mexico. Is it an artificial illusion? It looks like circulation. Even so its right on the shoreline so no real chance of further development. Just looked at satellite and it caught my eye.

Surface trough located right on the coast of Southern Mexico. There is a spin there but the system is likely to keep moving inland into Mexico.

Quoting bluehaze27:
Thanks hurricane23 and StormW...it will be interesting in a few weeks.

No problem! I'am with stormw on a very busy season just around the corner.

Ooooo, you should prolly put up one a little different...

.

Quoting unf97:


Surface trough located right on the coast of Southern Mexico. There is a spin there but the system is likely to keep moving inland into Mexico.

Thanks!

Afternoon guys and girls!

Well at least we don't need HH data to see the center of Bonnie/remnant low!