Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bonnie barely alive

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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551. atmosweather 8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Afternoon guys and girls! Well at least we don't need HH data to see the center of Bonnie/remnant low! Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

552. bohonkweatherman 8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting StormW: For da non believers: REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS Great job Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

553. LSU79 8:26 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting jlp09550: Almost looks like what's left of Bonnie in the north-eastern GOM is moving due west or almost stationary. Well it seems to be on its forcast path but it does appear to have slowed down a bit. It does have an real nice spin though. Member Since: August 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

556. CybrTeddy 8:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
We're getting deep enough in the season where climatological favored events like the 12z ECMWF is showing that are 192 hours plus have a good chance of verifying. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

557. IKE 8:28 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Bonnie update: Bonnie left her mark on me(inland Florida panhandle).....I received .02 of an inch of rain from her and a peak wind gust only my blow dryer could match. Stay tuned for further updates! $$$ Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

558. unf97 8:29 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting IKE: Bonnie update: Bonnie left her mark on me(inland Florida panhandle).....I received .02 of an inch of rain from her and a peak wind gust only my blow dryer could match. Stay tuned for further updates! $$$ LOL.. hey Ike you are throwing out some good lines today. Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

561. Hardcoreweather2010 8:31 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Very strong couplet over Mobile bay right now heading west. Should have been warned :) Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

562. atmosweather 8:31 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting StormW: For da non believers: REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS Terrific explanation Storm...people just have to be patient, I've never seen a La Nina year with a below average season or even an average season in ACE terms. June/July are useless in previewing entire-season activity. The amount of heat in the Atlantic this summer is extraordinary. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

565. CaicosRetiredSailor 8:33 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
I looked back some pages and didn't see this posted... They have a vessel back over the BP well, and have an ROV down on site monitoring again. Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5131

566. Hardcoreweather2010 8:33 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: 30 Minutes to next advisory. Last Advisory Maybe. More like 10 mins Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529

570. IKE 8:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: 30 Minutes to next advisory. Last Advisory Maybe. It is..... THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

571. CybrTeddy 8:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting atmosweather: Terrific explanation Storm...people just have to be patient, I've never seen a La Nina year with a below average season or even an average season in ACE terms. June/July are useless in previewing entire-season activity. The amount of heat in the Atlantic this summer is extraordinary. 2007 was pretty un-eventful in ACE. Had a LOT of storms though. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

572. atmosweather 8:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting IKE: Bonnie update: Bonnie left her mark on me(inland Florida panhandle).....I received .02 of an inch of rain from her and a peak wind gust only my blow dryer could match. Stay tuned for further updates! $$$ LMAO Ike...hey there's a whopping 4 mph wind being reported in Mobile, AL!!! Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

573. bappit 8:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Hmmmm, "A List of Common Logical Fallacies in Propaganda and Debate" might come in handy on here if you are keeping score. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4381

575. bappit 8:37 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: NHC should start ending their updates with Ok, I'll bite. Why? Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4381

579. jlp09550 8:37 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: 000 $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS R.I.P. Bonnie. Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340

581. IKE 8:38 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
It's over.... ...BONNIE DEGENERATES INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... 4:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 Location: 28.5�N 87.6�W Max sustained: 30 mph Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 1011 mb Dedicated to Bumbling Bonnie.... This time it's legit.... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

582. atmosweather 8:38 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: 2007 was pretty un-eventful in ACE. Had a LOT of storms though. Yeah it was pretty average ACE-wise but we still had 2 Cat-5s and 15 storms. La Nina will always give you plenty to watch no matter how June/July fare. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255

583. unf97 8:39 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: with the nasty weather Ike was reporting he may look more like this: LMAO.. That was a good one Destin Jeff LOL.. Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

584. stormpetrol 8:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Interesting feature in the BOC/GOM, Despite the ULL, the NW Caribbean & SW Caribbean might want to brew something, TD Bonnie looks to have slowed and moving more westward, Despite some criticism, I think the NHC made a good call and Bonnie deserved a name though shortlived, I thinked TD2 might have deserved a name also, I think starting from Aug 10 on the season is really going to ramp up, jmo. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

585. NOSinger 8:42 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Storm...while I didn't understand alot of the graphs and such...I must tell you how impressive it is to read your blog. To spend that kind of time to help us understand weather and what makes a storm do what it does...is really awesome...All I can say is ...THANK YOU!! Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

589. DoubleAction 8:45 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
98L is sure putting some tropical rain down on Mexico, all the focus is/was on Bonnie but the damage report will go to 98L for sure. Member Since: August 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 159

590. StormSurgeon 8:46 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Big T-Storm in Mobile Link Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

591. thewindman 8:46 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
NHC to lower their prediction by 50% and stop calling areas of interest with less than 1% chance of forming. They have become a bunch of wishcasters Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

592. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:49 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40559

594. CybrTeddy 8:50 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
I'm telling you all this though, this season has already proved itself deadly and destructive. Heck, in a inactive year Alex would have been the 'it only takes one' storm, 1.21 billion dollars in damage and 40+ people dead or missing. And I'll tell you, this season will continue to be deadly and destructive, and in 9 days or so when this season really gets going, it won't stop, we'll just see a continuous onslaught of increasingly deadly and destructive storms. Remember 2008? Once Fay formed all hell broke loose in the Atlantic, and it never stopped and soon enough we had Ike. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

595. HouGalv08 8:50 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
And even though Storm did a great job of laying out the facts in succinct order, some still don't GET IT. See comment made by "bappit", post #580. You can lead a horse to water, but ya can't make it drink. Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 313

596. TexasHurricane 8:51 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

597. PanhandleChuck 8:52 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: That dude in the picture ain't got nothin on StormW...LOL Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

599. JLPR2 8:52 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
The Atlantic looks a little dry Its going to be a little difficult for the wave that just emerged. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

601. StormSurgeon 8:53 PM GMT on July 24, 2010
Raining tons and buckets....... Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

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