Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bonnie barely alive

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1251 - 1301

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 — Blog Index

1252. JLPR2 5:41 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009: Ironically, 1998 used the same name list as we are using this year. yeah, that's freaky XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1254. xcool 5:47 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
hmm Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1257. xcool 5:58 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
:::::) Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1260. xcool 6:05 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
huh Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1264. xcool 6:10 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
why he Reported you ? Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1266. xcool 6:15 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
oh Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1267. xcool 6:21 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1268. JLPR2 6:23 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Sunday: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 102. East wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Hurray! XD Hadn't seen that number in awhile. Maybe I'll give the beach a little visit this week. :D Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1269. xcool 6:25 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
k Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1270. xcool 6:27 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
ECMWF come Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1271. JLPR2 6:27 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Lots of Dry air on its way, I'll have a super week. :) Also for the Cape Verde season to really get going the dry air needs to moisten up and disappear. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1272. xcool 6:27 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
lots of dry air Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1274. TexasHurricane 6:29 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Lots of Dry air on its way, I'll have a super week. :) Also for the Cape Verde season to really get going the dry air needs to moisten up and disappear. Not so much in the Carribean and GOM... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1275. xcool 6:30 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
sw cab ? Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1277. xcool 6:33 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
lmaoo Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1278. TampaSpin 6:34 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
LOOKS like there was another hacker attack.....GEESH! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1279. JLPR2 6:34 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Not so much in the Carribean and GOM... That's true, while the Eastern and Central Atl and the Eastern Caribbean are dry, the Western Caribbean and GOM are moist, it will be interesting to see how much further the dry air moves into the Caribbean. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1280. xcool 6:34 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1281. xcool 6:35 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
TampaSpin yeah make 3 times Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1282. TampaSpin 6:39 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Tropical Update Posted by TampaSpin on July 25, 2010 at 2:10 AM Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1283. TampaSpin 6:41 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting xcool: TampaSpin yeah make 3 times 3 today? It really is not hard to do as they know how to do it now.....The Doc. blog has a problem it appears now. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1285. TexasHurricane 6:42 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Nite all, check back tomorrow. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1286. xcool 6:42 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1287. JLPR2 6:43 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Nite all, check back tomorrow. night! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1288. xcool 6:44 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
TampaSpin i meaning 3 times This Week" Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1289. xcool 6:45 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
mmmMM SOO GOOD CHEESE PUFF Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1291. xcool 6:49 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
BYE ROB Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1292. TampaSpin 6:49 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting Landfalls: Hi, Tim, how are ya? OK........NOW tired and getting Sleepy....need the ZZZZZ's......LOL I just completed this..... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1293. JLPR2 6:50 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: OK........NOW tired and getting Sleepy....need the ZZZZZ's......LOL I just completed this..... Well that looks interesting and problematic down the road. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1294. xcool 6:52 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
TampaSpin ECMWF SHOWS THAT Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1295. TampaSpin 6:53 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Well that looks interesting and problematic down the road. Below is what i just posted with in on my Site... I have identified 2 AOI in blue circles to watch long term. First off there is no model support for any development at all in the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days. If you all notice the Pacific has been very quite. Models are showing an increase in activity in the Pacific as rarely do both basins are active the same time. The area the NHC has in yellow in the BOC should move into Mexico and not develop but, will bring unreal rains to the same region that has had major flooding already. The AOI in Blue that i have circled in the SW Caribbean is an area to watch long term. There is strong 850mb Vorticity and good Divergence and Convergence but, there is an ULL just to the North that will bring very High Shear and will not allow this to develop. The AOI should move inland and eventually possibly move to the BOC in time. The AOI i have in the Eastern Atlantic is very far out. The GFS model did hint at some development but, the other models are not showing this to develop. I'm not sure why as it appears to have a decent spin already. This needs watched as possibly the first true Cape Verde storm of the year could come from this Spin. I am also very fearful that the combination of the ULL and the reminates of Bonnie will cause some very severe Flooding problems coming to the Tennessee Valley area. Flash flooding could be a major problem. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1296. TampaSpin 6:54 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting xcool: TampaSpin ECMWF SHOWS THAT LOL....silly me that was one model i did not even look at to be honest! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1297. xcool 6:57 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
LOL Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1298. TampaSpin 6:58 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
God knows i need my beauty sleep....time to get my beauty restored.......i hope i wake up tho.....LOL....NITE ALL! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1299. JLPR2 6:59 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: God knows i need my beauty sleep....time to get my beauty restored.......i hope i wake up tho.....LOL....NITE ALL! XD Night! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1300. xcool 7:01 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
:) Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1301. JLPR2 7:10 AM GMT on July 25, 2010
Well, it's rather sad when there is nothing to talk about LOL! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

Viewing: 1251 - 1301

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters