Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Stop comparing this season to 2005, we shouldn't expect that kind of level this year of activity. 2004, lets talk about that season.. no named storms until late July. 15 named storms, 2007 had 7 storms in September, 2000 also had 15 named storms with the first named storm forming in early August. If we see a ramp up in activity like those seasons which is very possible we'll hit 17 easy.

Add couple of the "unnamed" invests and 20 could be breached

Quoting TampaSpin:


You are 100% correct. Strange thing about MJO was it truly has not fully arrived into the Atlantic Basin fully as the Models have forecasted. Not sure why that has not occured. Almost as if it missed us completely.

Yep, wonder if I should be called 'attack dog ted'.

I haven't measured a 25 mph wind yet on my davis weather station on my truck down here on Dauphin Island. Where are you Surgeon ?

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Stop comparing this season to 2005, we shouldn't expect that kind of level this year of activity. 2004, lets talk about that season.. no named storms until late July. 15 named storms, 2007 had 7 storms in September, 2000 also had 15 named storms with the first named storm forming in early August. If we see a ramp up in activity like those seasons which is very possible we'll hit 17 easy.

My reference to 2005 was simply it was a hyperactive year and busy at the beginning. I only forecasted 17 storms which is 11 behind 2005.. I also said that we were at the "G" storm by now and I thought we would be at the "D" storm.

Met Service of Jamaica
July 24, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across the central Caribbean.

Comment
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the trough are expected
to continue affecting most areas today and tonight.


24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning and Afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms across sections of all parishes.

Tonight… Occasional showers with isolated thunderstorms.


3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sun… Isolated morning showers over western parishes. Partly cloudy afternoon.

Mon/Tue… Mostly sunny morning. Periods of showers likely during the afternoon mainly over hilly areas.

Regionally… High Pressure Ridge will gradually rebuild across the northern Caribbean.

grb

There is a non tasked HH taking off from St Croix also.



AOI

Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I also heard that Downward motion is not as effective once you start getting into the heart of the season.. It tends to be more prominant of a player when you are on the front or back side of the season.... Of course that is my opinion and I certianly could be full of XXXX! even my detector went up as I was typing.. LOL

Actually that's a good statement, storms form more easily as we get later into the season and aren't influenced as much by downward MJO.. still affects the basin however. Aug 09, we experienced 3 storms in 2 days in a neutral - downward MJO phase including a Category 4 hurricane.

The word HYPERACTIVE may have been over used. Yes it will be above active but, as i have posted this graphic before as everyone can see the very active years for the globe gradually incline......not a 1 year spike.....next year and the year following may be the true HYPERACTIVE YEARS......i pointed this out in my JUNE 1st prediction for the year...thats why i only had 16 named storms!

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I haven't measured a 25 mph wind yet on my davis weather station on my truck down here on Dauphin Island. Where are you Surgeon ?

Heck yesterday I didnt even get a 20mph on my Davis as the storm past. But it is stationary now and Im in Central Fl. But I am 160ft. above sea level...

Looks like I am finally going to get wet. No waterspouts yet

Met Service of Jamaica

NEWS RELEASE
July 24, 2010. 6:00 a.m

***INCREASED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT JAMAICA ***


A Trough, currently east of Jamaica, is expected to linger across the area today. Satellite imagery indicates cloudy conditions with possible showers and thunderstorms currently over the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.

Therefore, the forecast is for widespread showers and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times, along with gusty winds, to affect sections of most parishes today and tonight, as the Trough moves closer to Jamaica.

Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are likely in showers and thunderstorms over inshore and offshore areas.


Meanwhile,

Quoting ackee:
Well seem like 2010 seasons will be active and not hyper active looks like it will be a seasons full with invests upper level low and African dust

Relax, it's only July 24th .. the season hasn't started as yet.

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I haven't measured a 25 mph wind yet on my davis weather station on my truck down here on Dauphin Island. Where are you Surgeon ?

Must be an off day down there. I'm in West Mobile. I have a nice Tiger pic if you want to change that avatar.....heh heh.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


My reference to 2005 was simply it was a hyperactive year and busy at the beginning. I only forecasted 17 storms which is 11 behind 2005.. I also said that we were at the "G" storm by now and I thought we would be at the "D" storm.

Well, if 92L, TD2, and 95L were named we'd be at Earl right now.

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Looks like I am finally going to get wet. No waterspouts yet

Just wait on the 2nd wave of thunderstorms...
I think you will have a water spout out of it....

Taco :o)

Quoting SLU:


Relax, it's onlt July 24th .. the season hasn't started as yet.

LOL That has got to be the most popular graph on the site. LOL

Quoting StormSurgeon:


Must be an off day down there. I'm in West Mobile. I have a nice Tiger pic if you want to change that avatar.....heh heh.

No thanks it's a great time to be an Alabama and Saints fan

Gotta run.....everyone have good day. Don't see a lot of worries except and inland flooding problem coming from Bonnie in the Tennessee Valley....could be bad!

Quoting taco2me61:

Just wait on the 2nd wave of thunderstorms...
I think you will have a water spout out of it....

Taco :o)

I will turn on the stream once that 2nd wave arrives and post a direct link for yall

Quoting Chicklit:
Enjoy the break, Dr. Masters. Looks like your neck of the woods has been getting some extreme weather!
Relieved that Bonnie is making LA landfall with best case scenario.
Thanks for keeping us all up to date.

Record Report
Statement as of 7:51 am EDT on July 24, 2010
... Record warm low temperature tied at Melbourne (FL) yesterday...
The low temperature of 78 degrees Friday at Melbourne International Airport equaled the record warm low for that date... July 23... which previously occurred in 2005.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the record release of methane from various oil well leaks the world over for the last few years has something to do with the temperature spikes lately...but it's only a hunch (methane is also said to be much more conducive to creating a warming environment than CO2). ;)

Quoting StormSurgeon:


Must be an off day down there. I'm in West Mobile. I have a nice Tiger pic if you want to change that avatar.....heh heh.

Hey I second that Tiger Pic too... It would be a Nice change for ya there HardCore.LOL

Taco :o)

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Like 2008 and 2007. I don't get what some people don't understand, the conditions we're seeing out there right now are NORMAL. I'm not talking about you ackee, not specifically, but there are loads and loads of bloggers out there who still don't understand and will probably ignore this post.

Here's the shear anamolies. Look at the trends, not the current level of shear.

In the Gulf, that large spike in late June - Early July is thanks to Alex.


In the Caribbean


In the tropical Atlantic


In the sub-tropical Atlantic


How about SAL? Does this SAL honestly look as bad as it did in 2006? You must remember, 2005 had only 1 Cape Verde cyclone, Irene. Everything else developed from trough splits or tropical waves well away from the Cape Verdes.


ULLs are also normal for this time of year.

MJO? CFS predicts a downward yes, but not as hard as the GFS is. MJO has been trending towards our basin all season, because that is where all the heat is bundled up. Even if we go downward, it has been noted that the downward MJO might not act like normal thanks to the abnormally high SSTs.. we still might see large amounts of moisture. This is similar to 2005.

If these conditions continue through August to October then we're in for a major season.

And a downward phase of the MJO doesn't mean that storms can't form. They can still develop. They tend to be more prevalent when there's upward motion but they don't need widespread upward motion for formation to occur.

Gotta go hit the Gym and work my one pack! Wife is sick of me being on the computer with "no storms" LOL... My wife is a downcaster or a NAG CASTER.... LOL

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


No thanks it's a great time to be an Alabama and Saints fan

Just fooling with you Hardcore, I like the Tide too. Few have been lucky enough to hoist the trophy this century. Won't be heading to the Island today, too much to do around here and the weather is uncooperative. I really need to get off my butt.....and this blog.......

Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL That has got to be the most popular graph on the site. LOL

Yep .. certainly has been of late.

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Gotta go hit the Gym and work my one pack! Wife is sick of me being on the computer with "no storms" LOL... My wife is a downcaster or a NAG CASTER.... LOL

OMG you are not right while I'm LMBO

Nag-Caster Thats funny right there I tell Ya....

Taco :o)

Quoting TampaSpin:
Gotta run.....everyone have good day. Don't see a lot of worries except and inland flooding problem coming from Bonnie in the Tennessee Valley....could be bad!

What about the potential for there to be more than just rain dropped? Acid rain anyone? It seems like I'm talking to myself on this topic here. ;(

Quoting sammywammybamy:
RIP BONNIE.

hey bonnie looking better than she did last night. at least she picked up some storms.lol!:)

Dr. Masters is traveling and taking a break.

Things are sure to pop now.

Quoting taco2me61:

OMG you are not right while I'm LMBO

Nag-Caster Thats funny right there I tell Ya....

Taco :o)

Ha ha ha ha, that's why I'm single..........

Quoting vince1:

What about the potential for there to be more than just rain dropped? Acid rain anyone? It seems like I'm talking to myself on this topic here. ;(

I appreciate your posts Vince, but Dr. Ricky Roods blog is down the hall, second door on the left...you might find some takers there.

no acid rain, or oil rain from this tropical poof:)

Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Masters is traveling and taking a break.

Things are sure to pop now.

it never fails...

Quoting IKE:
BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.

you happy now? lol

:)

See ya'll after lunch.....got things to do. Take care and Geaux baby........

Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL That has got to be the most popular graph on the site. LOL

Needs to be posted as many times as possible for people to get the hint, cause it aint working lol.

i can't believe they canceled the warnings. we are getting winds of at least 2 to 3 mph. the trees are barely moving. :)

Quoting tkeith:
you happy now? lol

:)

Nice breeze blowing outside. Made my mowing much easier:)

Quoting tkeith:
you happy now? lol

:)

I don't think Ike is happy at all, they didn't do a last advisory, next one at 5 p.m.

Ike, i'm just kidding around with you, great news for the oil spill :)

Ok I'm out too getting ready to go to Gulf Port all have a great day and I hope to have Pics for all to see....

Play nice in here....

Taco :o)

Quoting SLU:


Relax, it's only July 24th .. the season hasn't started as yet.

Nothing predicted for the next week!!! We will be in August by then. Unless we have 8 storms in August and September they overhyped this year

Quoting taco2me61:
Ok I'm out too getting ready to go to Gulf Port all have a great day and I hope to have Pics for all to see....

Play nice in here....

Taco :o)

Taco, if ya see Cantore, tell him we said Hey :)

Quoting sarahjola:
i can't believe they canceled the warnings. we are getting winds of at least 2 to 3 mph. the trees are barely moving. :)

They shouldn't have even named Bonnie. Just trying to fluf up the numbers of storms I guess

Getting ready to kick over the props. Cloudy up top and we may get a sprinkle or two. Still gonna stay out of Ponchatrain just in case. Nice cool day for inland boating. Thanks Bonnie.

Quoting TropicalGenesis:
Interesting Report from San Juan Weather Service. Is there a correlation between 1958 wet weather and the start of 2010?

.CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...A TOTAL OF 8.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN
RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST START TO
JULY ON RECORD TO DATE. JULY 2010 IS NOW THE FOURTH WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1961 WHEN 9.35 INCHES WERE
RECORDED. 2010 STILL ON TRACK TO BE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. THROUGH
JULY 23RD...A TOTAL OF 48.66 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS IS 5.11
INCHES MORE THAN THE NEXT CLOSEST YEAR SINCE 1958.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...A TOTAL OF 7.32 INCHES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
7.41 INCHES WERE RECORDED. WITH ONLY 0.10 INCHES NEEDED TO BREAK THE
RECORD AND EIGHT DAYS STILL LEFT ON THE CALENDAR MONTH IT IS MORE
THAN LIKELY THAT JULY 2010 WILL END UP AS THE WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD. LIKE IN SAN JUAN...2010 REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE ONE OF THE
WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD. SINCE JAN 1 2010...A TOTAL OF 29.96 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT ST. THOMAS. THIS TOTAL REPRESENTS THE
SECOND WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD ONLY BEHIND 1960 WHEN 32.99
HAD BEEN RECORDED TO DATE.

AT THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT IN ST. CROIX THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY
AS WET AS IN SAN JUAN OR ST. THOMAS. THROUGH JULY 23RD...A TOTAL OF
3.97 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS REPRESENTS THE NINTH WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
6.34 INCHES WERE RECORDED. 2010 RANKS AS THE EIGHT WETTEST START TO
A YEAR ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 21.88 INCHES.

WHILE SEARCHING FOR THIS DATA...1958...1960 AND 1961 CAME OUT IN
SEVERAL OCASSIONS AS GOOD ANALOGS FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES WITH
1958 HAVING THE BEST ANALOG WHEN COMPARED TO 2010. THAT YEAR A TOTAL
OF TEN NAMED STORMS FORMED DURING THE HURRICANE SEASON WITH SEVEN
BECOMING HURRICANES OF WHICH FIVE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES. THREE
STORMS AFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN AND ONE OF THEM BECAME A MAJOR
HURRICANE (HURRICANE ELLA).

I guess they are bust casters.

Quoting thewindman:


They shouldn't have even named Bonnie. Just trying to fluf up the numbers of storms I guess

Nope 95L should have been Bonnie j/k