Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010 | +3 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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How much lightning occurs in tropical cyclones?
Surprisingly, not much lightning occurs in the inner core (within
about 100 km or 60 mi) of the tropical cyclone center. Only around a
dozen or less cloud-to-ground strikes per hour occur around the eyewall
of the storm, in strong contrast to an overland mid-latitude mesoscale
convective complex which may be observed to have lightning flash rates
of greater than 1000 per hour (!) maintained for several hours.
Hurricane Andrew's eyewall had less than 10 strikes per hour from the
time it was over the Bahamas until after it made landfall along Louisiana,
with several hours with no cloud-to-ground lightning at all (Molinari et
al. 1994). However, lightning can be more common in the outer cores of
the storms (beyond around 100 km or 60 mi) with flash rates on the order
of 100s per hour.
This lack of inner core lightning is due to the relative weak nature
of the eyewall thunderstorms. Because of the lack of surface heating
over the ocean ocean and the "warm core" nature of the tropical cyclones,
there is less buoyancy available to support the updrafts. Weaker updrafts
lack the super-cooled water (e.g. water with a temperature less than 0 C
or 32 F) that is crucial in charging up a thunderstorm by the interaction
of ice crystals in the presence of liquid water (Black and Hallett 1986).
The more common outer core lightning occurs in conjunction with the
presence of convectively-active rainbands (Samsury and Orville 1994).
One of the exciting possibilities that recent lightning studies
have suggested is that changes in the inner core strikes - though the
number of strikes is usually quite low - may provide a useful forecast
tool for intensification of tropical cyclones. Black (1975) suggested
that bursts of inner core convection which are accompanied by increases
in electrical activity may indicate that the tropical cyclone will soon
commence a deepening in intensity. Analyses of Hurricanes Diana (1984),
Florence (1988) and Andrew (1992), as well as an unnamed tropical storm
in 1987 indicate that this is often true (Lyons and Keen 1994 and Molinari
et al. 1994).
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory - FAQ : HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND TROPICAL CYCLONES
ULL
Daytime makes it alot less visible.
I see you made your point.
Could be correct.
12Z GFS at 180 hours....1034mb high in the EATL....
I wonder why. It is perhaps because all of heat tropical cyclones release into the atmosphere. The ice pellets are liquified into rain before they even reach close to the surface.
Now, while fallinstorms rants and bickers about a very inactive hurricane season, which I know is false, I forecast that we will get somewhere between Matthew and Tomas when the season ends November 30. I also forecast the following:
Probability of a season with 7-12 storms: <1%
Probability of a season with 13-18 storms: about 83%
Probability of a season with 20 or more storms: approximately 27%.
These forecasts are just my opinion. Let's see what this season has to offer.
Might have something to do with vertical motion as well. The core of a hurricane has much more of a horizontal component to the air motion because of the extremely strong winds, and thus only the very strongest of updrafts may be able to lift hail stones very far upwards in a thunderstorm. I don't know what the most popular explanation is. I haven't read up on it.
We are nearing the end of July, with already having two weaker type storms; this puts us on the above average side of climatology (technically speaking). Although, with all the 2010 pre hype, it appears slow and boring, althogh boring is good to most during any storm season.
I put the odds of squeeking out one more weaker type storm in July at 50%, something probably close to home.
August, especially beginning after the 10th, should be a lot less "boring". We could easily see more than one named system at a time that is being tracked. We definately will see a lot more red circles from the NHC; seems mom through away the other colors. I exspect no less than five named storms in August, and could be as high as seven or eight(my guess 6). This would put us at Seven or eight named storms by the end of August at a minimum.
September will be, and usually is the month to watch and perhaps dread during a storm season, this year could be especially painful to some. I anticipate no less than seven named storms during September, where there could be three storms going at once at some point. The named storm total I guess would be eight but could be as high as nine. This puts us at between 14 and 16 named storms by the end of September 2010.
October is usually the time during most seasons where things really begin to unwind storm wise. I expect this year to NOT follow suite. I see no less than four named storms forming in October 2010, and feel we could easily see five named storms. By this time all those predicting high numbers will be saying "I told you so" those predicting or changing their predictions to numbers under 15 will slither back into their holes. By the end of October we will have seen between 18 and 22 storms.
November should quiet down a lot, however one or two storms could still pop up; I expect one.
December is always much quieter in the tropics, and after our 2010 season, quietness will be welcome; as far as totals for December, possibly one storm, I guess Zero.
This puts us at between 19 and 23 storms for the 2010 storm season. My guess, 20 Storms, 14 Hurricanes and 5 or 6 intense Hurricanes.
To guess regarding landfall locations, is a laughing matter; my cone covers all of North America, Central America, and Some of South America, and parts of Europe. But seriously, do to early season indications I would guess all points south of a line from Texas to Georgia need to be extra prepared to protect life and property this year.
Of note is how far north the high is centered though, up near 50N. That's way up there. The secondary center forecasted by the GFS looks to set up as a weaker ridge centered near 60W and farther south, a favorable pattern for the Atlantic overall. Even a dry eastern Atlantic is just more bad news for us in the United States and the Caribbean.
Wow, that is quite alot of activity during those three months! If your 9 storms in September verifies, it would break the record of 8 storms from 2002! Still though, I feel that you might be on the right track. 2005 spawned 18 storms in the ASO period (5, 6, 7, respectively), which is comparable to your numbers that you have up. I know that this isn't 2005 and is 2010, but I don't see how we are going to escape without huge numbers this season, everything seems too favorable for it not.....
Yes, that may be a problem for the next couple of weeks before the MJO gets back in the Atlantic and restores the ridge east of the US.
It's faltering! Still can't bust right through Octant 3....should see it swing right back where it came from yet again in the next couple weeks.
Can I have the link to that? I have the CPC link but not that one.
Link
Yes, that is where it is focused right now, and there's really nowhere else for it to go this summer and fall.
La nina going to become very strong by the heart of hurricane season,same with the MJO.
(Tooken from Levi's tropical tidbit.)
Tracks may be similar to 05.Just my prediction...
wtd
lmbo
well, there may be global warming, but it certainly is cold around my house.
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