Little change to 90L; new African tropical wave is worth watching
Invest 90L is a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 33W with a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity but a decent amount of spin. It does not have a well-defined surface circulation, and has shown little change in organization today. CIMMS wind-shear analyses show a low amount of wind shear (5 - 10 knots) over 90L, and sea surface temperatures are a record warm 29°C. The wave currently is in a moist environment and is not being affected by the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The disturbance has moved far enough away from the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin to help it develop. The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.
Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite image from 2pm EDT 7/30/10 of the relatively tiny 90L, and the large new tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday.
Forecast for 90L
One factor inhibiting development of 90L this week will be the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO.) The MJO currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased.
Perhaps the main factor interfering with 90L's development will be the presence of the large tropical wave to the east of 90L that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday. This new wave is large enough and close enough to 90L that it will probably begin to dominate regional weather patterns this weekend, stealing away 90L's inflow of low-level moist air. The new wave may also act to bring sinking air over 90L that will tend to suppress 90L's thunderstorm activity. It may turn out that the new wave will also steal some of 90L's spin, and end up being a threat to develop itself later on this weekend.
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) model runs for 90L show very little in the way of development of the storm. The predominant track forecast takes 90L into or just north of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands about 6 - 8 days from now. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 19% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Sunday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones that develop at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, and I think that the large tropical wave off the coast of Africa will kill 90L this weekend.
Tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean
A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, south of the Dominican Republic, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph with no signs of development. The wave is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds from an upper level low centered north of Puerto Rico. This shear is expected to remain remain high through Saturday. By Sunday, when the wave will be approaching Nicaragua, the wave will be far enough away from the upper level low that shear should fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. Some development is possible on Sunday, but the wave will have only about a 1-day window to develop before its westerly motion brings it inland over Nicaragua on Monday. NHC is giving this wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 2pm Sunday.
Extreme cold records for 2010
In my post yesterday, I reported that fourteen countries had set their all-time hottest temperature record this year. I neglected to mention that one country has also set its coldest temperature in recorded history mark in 2010. Guinea had its coldest temperature in its history on January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region. Of the 229 countries with extreme coldest temperature records, 14 of these records have occurred in the past ten years (6% of all countries). There have been five times as many (74) extreme hottest temperature records in the past ten years (33% of all countries.) My source for extreme weather records is Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather.
New study finds huge drop in the plants that form the base of the oceanic food chain
A study published this week in the journal Nature documents that microscopic marine phytoplankton, which form the basis of the marine food chain, have declined by 40% globally since 1950. Joe Romm at climateprogress.org discusses the implications, using this headline:
Scientists may have found the most devastating impact yet of human-caused global warming — a 40% decline in phytoplankton since 1950 linked to the rise in ocean sea surface temperatures. If confirmed, it may represent the single most important finding of the year in climate science.
I plan to discuss this paper next week.
Next update
I'll have an update this weekend, probably by 8pm EDT Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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4th
My uncle got a heart attack due to heavy snow. Say that again, that the winter wasn't 'that bad.' >:(
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Link to 2-2010 DFW, TX Monthy Totals.
Officially -7.7F normal, with 12.6 inches of snow:
Link
My mistake....trying to move to the HEAD of the class!
wvloop
Do you like arguing a lot?
A winter that only gets within 17 degrees of the all-time record low is not that extraordinary.
was the part I was addressing.
Also, coldest does not necessarily mean worst. I never said it was the coldest.
Its all relative to your means. It was a cold winter in the deep south.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
A 6th lowest extent looks likely.
And here is a pic from that out of League City
So sorry:
Link
Florida saw real snow not seen since 1977. I think that's pretty darn exceptional to me, considering that was when the PDO was cold. The PDO has just turned cold in June.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMVJdnG3XKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST FRI JUL 30 2010
.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND A
POTENTIALLY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER AS DRIER AIR HAS
ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP HAS KEPT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
THE TUTT LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR REFLECTION OF THIS
TUTT EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE VI AND
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. THE MOST
INTERESTING FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS THE POTENTIALLY
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...THAT AT THIS TIME HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...BUT EITHER WAY...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
Ha, way to smooth it out for the entire CONUS....I said southern and eastern. The northeast got more snow than cold. Take a look at the southern states....top-10 winters for all.
I am sorry, I will post this, sorry for stretching the blog!!
WFO Monthly/Daily Climate Data
000
CXUS54 KFWD 081624
CF6DFW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)
STATION: DALLAS FORT WORTH
MONTH: FEBRUARY
YEAR: 2010
LATITUDE: 32 54 N
LONGITUDE: 97 2 W
TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND
================================================================================
1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================
1 46 29 38 -8 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.5 16 190 0 0 9 18 M M
2 51 38 45 -1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.3 14 350 450 70 9 1 17 40
3 47 35 41 -6 24 0 0.14 0.0 0 7.6 16 90 0 0 9 18 24 80
4 44 41 43 -4 22 0 0.23 0.0 0 7.0 15 100 0 0 9 1 21 100
5 59 39 49 2 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.3 17 310 350 54 6 1 23 310
6 43 35 39 -8 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.2 15 360 129 20 7 18 360
7 44 36 40 -7 25 0 0.05 0.0 0 5.3 13 120 0 0 10 18 15 130
8 42 38 40 -8 25 0 1.06 0.0 0 11.6 25 350 0 0 10 1 30 350
9 43 26 35 -13 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 14.0 29 340 627 96 5 35 350
10 39 29 34 -14 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.8 13 30 0 0 10 M M
11 38 32 35 -13 30 0 1.08 11.2 1 5.8 15 180 0 0 10 12 18 190
12 36 29 33 -16 32 0 0.06 1.3 11 5.8 12 260 0 0 10 1 15 290
13 44 32 38 -11 27 0 0.00 0.0 5 8.6 17 180 384 66 6 12 18 180
14 41 29 35 -14 30 0 0.00 0.0 1 11.5 30 10 165 25 5 128 39 10
15 46 29 38 -11 27 0 0.00 0.0 T 14.8 26 310 662 100 0 33 300
16 50 27 39 -11 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.8 22 320 616 93 3 26 330
17 54 27 41 -9 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.6 12 310 633 95 0 15 320
18 62 32 47 -3 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.6 21 160 633 95 1 28 160
19 57 42 50 -1 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.6 20 190 84 13 8 23 190
20 62 52 57 6 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.5 18 150 221 33 10 24 150
21 65 40 53 2 12 0 0.21 0.0 0 13.0 26 310 61 9 10 1 32 300
22 40 36 38 -13 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.5 21 340 0 0 10 25 350
23 42 32 37 -15 28 0 T 0.1 0 13.2 22 20 0 0 10 1 28 30
24 50 29 40 -12 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.3 17 340 679 100 1 22 350
25 57 33 45 -7 20 0 T 0.0 0 14.3 26 170 518 76 7 8 36 160
26 50 37 44 -8 21 0 T 0.0 0 13.5 24 360 0 0 9 1 28 360
27 64 34 49 -4 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.8 15 300 671 98 2 18 20 320
28 65 38 52 -1 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.8 23 150 546 79 7 30 150
================================================================================
SM 1381 956 645 0 2.83 12.6 263.6 7429 193
================================================================================
AV 49.3 34.1 9.4 FASTST 265 40 7 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> # 30 10 # 39 10
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES
COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2
STATION: DALLAS FORT WORTH
MONTH: FEBRUARY
YEAR: 2010
LATITUDE: 32 54 N
LONGITUDE: 97 2 W
[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16
AVERAGE MONTHLY: 41.7 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 2.83 1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL: -7.7 DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.46 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST: 65 ON 28,21 GRTST 24HR 1.14 ON 11-12 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST: 26 ON 9 3 = THUNDER
SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS
TOTAL MONTH: 12.6 INCHES 5 = HAIL
GRTST 24HR 11.2 ON M 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
GRTST DEPTH: 11 ON 12 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW
X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 7
MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 5
MIN 32 OR BELOW: 13 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 2
MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 2
[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 645 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 6
DPTR FM NORMAL 197 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 8
TOTAL FM JUL 1 2251 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 14
DPTR FM NORMAL 216
[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 0
DPTR FM NORMAL -7 [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1 0 HIGHEST SLP 30.37 ON 10
DPTR FM NORMAL -10 LOWEST SLP 29.70 ON 21
[REMARKS]
EDITED PEAK WIND ON 1ST AND 10TH
#FINAL-02-10#
StormW at work
Thanks..is that your home? You in League City? The Houston NWS used to office there and is in Dickinson now..correct?
I'm not a doctor but I play one on tv lol.
I don't answer to you,
Actually, he nailed it back in July and renewed it in October.
No that is my wifes work and I forgot that pic is actually out of Baytown. Yeah Im under the radar invisibility cloak.
Do we have a third?
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