Lesser Antilles may see a tropical storm late this week
A concentrated area of intense thunderstorms near 9N 36W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become more organized this morning. NHC has labeled this system Invest 91L, and is giving it a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 8am Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of 91L to potentially allow further development. The main negatives for development are the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, and the fact that 91L is too close to the Equator to take much advantage of the Earth's spin to get spinning. Last night's ASCAT pass of the region did show a large region of westerly winds south of 91L, indicating that a surface circulation is trying to form. Satellite imagery shows that the intensity and areal extent of 91L's heavy thunderstorms is increasing. However, there are no signs of a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are not apparent yet.
Forecast for 91L
There is strong model support for 91L developing into a tropical depression. The GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all develop 91L into a tropical depression by Tuesday or Wednesday. A west to west-northwest motion is predicted, and residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm arriving in the islands as early as Thursday. It is possible that 91L would pass northeast of the islands, as predicted by the UKMET model, and it is too early to speculate on which of the islands is at most risk. As the storm approaches the Lesser Antilles late this week, 91L will encounter a strong upper-level low pressure system centered north of Puerto Rico. This upper-level low will likely bring high levels of wind shear to the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Thus, if 91L stays to the south, in the Caribbean, it is far more likely to attain hurricane status than if it pushes north of the Caribbean. As always, long range forecasts of this sort are speculative, and it is too early to reliably say what the long-term risks of 91L becoming a hurricane are. The latest intensity forecast from the SHIPS model shows 91L peaking in strength four days from now, then weakening as it encounters the high wind shear area north of Puerto Rico.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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WTF? Where?
Off to bed.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
let me rephrase that:
The disturbance which I believe is the remnants of the area of convection that left Africa yesterday is firing some cold cloud tops known as hot towers.
*I still like the simple version XD
hahaha just messing :)
How about "with cloud tops up to 80C or greater".
But again, just messing.
you felt anything?
I had a 5.8 in May and it was a scary experience.
XD LOL!
Your recently modified explanation works well too. :D
ABNT20 KNHC 020532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Link
Dude i just felt that!
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/us2010zlai.php\
Seriously?
lets see how 91L does until D-max's peak hits it.
Yeah...Knocked my damn coke off my bed!~
I'm at exactly 30N 90W. Didn't feel a thing. Interesting.
Well it was just a 3.0, not many people tend to feel those.
looks like a 92l in the making here
lol
blame it on the earthquake XD
Nah i felt some slight shaking and i freaked out and kinda kicked my coke off the bed hahahah
Quoting WaterWitch11:
well i'll be a monkey's uncle i mean aunt, louisiana had a 3.0 earthquake!
you felt anything?
I had a 5.8 in May and it was a scary experience.
seeing how i'm in cali, nope didn't feel a thing!
Anyhow, so no Colin yet, huh? Guess we'll get a TD by morning time then.
Only a moron would set a can of coke on a bed anyway. Of course it fell over.
I'll take your word for it. lol
¬¬
Hey!
I do that a lot!
And I have developed a sense of balance, plus there are areas on the bed where I cant place it, it has to be in a specific spot. LOL
Hey buddy i have a great Meteorology mind...nobody said i had common sense so back off :)
Oh yeah, sure, those are very common around here. XD
Notice he's not talking about how he's going to clean the stain. It's like O.J. never caring about finding the, "real killer."
I would never use the word great on this blog....that will always come back and bite you for sure.....JUST SAYIN!
Wow i never thought i would be compared to O.J. Simpson thats a first
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