Colin ready to re-form; TSR keeps their Atlantic hurricane forecast numbers high
The remains of Tropical Storm Colin continue to generate heavy thunderstorm activity over the waters a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the storm is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Despite the high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, Colin's remains have grown more organized during the past day, and a low-level circulation has formed. A pass of the Windsat satellite last night revealed that ex-Colin is already generating tropical storm force winds of 40 mph in isolated regions. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage this morning, and a low level circulation that may or may not persist has formed near 23.5N 65.5W (Figure 1.)
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 10 - 20 knots on Friday. This relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next three days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. A major trough of low pressure will move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the north and cause it to slow down. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 2 pm EDT this afternoon. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Newfoundland.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains show a low-level circulation, exposed to view, has formed at the edge of a region of heavy thunderstorms.
92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) a few hundred miles south of Jamaica is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday and the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model is predicting that a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday will develop into a tropical depression early next week. None of the other models is showing any obvious tropical cyclone development over the coming week. The current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Atlantic favors upward motion and enhanced probabilities of tropical storm formation, so it would not be a surprise to see a new tropical depression form next week between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.
TSR keeps their forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season high
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) joins CSU in calling for a very busy Atlantic hurricane season. The latest TSR forecast issued August 4 calls for 17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes, 4.5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 183% of average (assuming an ACE of 101 is average.) These storm numbers are a slight drop from their July 6 forecast of 19.1 named storms, 10.4 hurricanes, and 4.8 intense hurricanes, but this is still a very aggressive forecast. The 50-year average is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 96% chance that this season will have an above-average ACE index, and only 4% chance it will be near normal. TSR rates their skill level for August forecasts as 51% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 64% skill for hurricanes, and 47% skill for intense hurricanes.
TSR projects that 5.7 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. TSR's skill in making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 19% - 23% above chance. They give an 89% chance that the U.S. landfalling ACE index will be above average. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.8 named storms, 0.8 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.
TSR cites two main factors for keeping their numbers high: below-average trade winds and near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. TSR expects trade winds in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean) to be 1.53 meters per second (about 3.4 mph) slower than average in this region, which would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up, due to decreased mixing of cold water from the depths and reduced evaporational cooling.
Forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season
Here are the number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecast groups in their late May or early June forecasts:
23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU COAPS dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology
And here are the new late July/early August forecast numbers so far:
15 named storms, 8 hurricanes: FSU COAPS dynamical model (July 15 forecast)
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes, 4.5 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique (Note: TSR had higher numbers of 19.1, 10.4, and 4.8 in their July 6 forecast)
This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.
Next update
I'll have an update on Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think reedzone mentioned he wouldn't be back until late tonight.
Oh, I wish it was that easy!Life is hard and it will get back at you. Don't jynx it anymore or it will come. Expect the unexpected.
wish one?
PGI24L.
hang on I will check
It is slightly west of the model consensus so far. I expect it to go further west of Bermuda, but stay futher East- off of the East Coast. Bermuda could see Tropical Depression force winds from this though, IMHO.
this one
ROTFL!
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN
HONDURAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
lol!
LMAO
ok
Teddy, you been here too long when you can interpret Taz easily! LOL
LOL
yup but we wont no be come the site is down
Recoon heading home from Colin
no went them stay all night i pay for there hole tell
ya I suppose that is southwest of Cape Verde ;-)
how is PGI25L doing
We are beginning our descent into the Peak of Hurricane Season. Please fasten your seatbelts and put your trays in their upright locking position. Do not be alarmed as there might be a bit of turbulance as we begin to descend. Current weather conditions are hot, humid, with a moderate chance of thunderstorms. We here at Cape Verde Airlines would like to thank you for flying with us and hope your stay is a pleasent one.
Too Funny!!!
Western Africa looks quiet.. Taz
LOL.
ok
Yes
may be will see 93L and 94L soon
NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensificiation Processes - The goal of GRIP is on better understanding the processes important in tropical cyclone genesis and rapid intensification. The aircraft used in GRIP are the NASA DC-8 and the NASA Global Hawk. The DC-8 will be used in Fort Lauderdale, FL while the Global Hawk will be based in Dryden, CA. GRIP runs from Aug. 15 - Sept. 30, 2010
NSF PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics - The goal of PREDICT is to increase the spatial and temporal sampling of tropical disturbances prior to, and during, genesis. The primary research tool is the NCAR G-V aircraft which with double crewing will sample disturbances for as much as 16 out of 24 hours during the early life stage. The G-V will be primarily based in St. Croix, USVI. PREDICT runs from Aug. 15 - Sept. 30, 2010
Guess theirs a good resone why they schedueled these for aug 15 through Sept 30 i understand aug and sep are the most active months but they didnt come up with a exact date by radom
at least i dont think so anyway. but it will be nice to see what they find from this though
Thanks
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