Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow
A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.
Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.
Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.
Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.
Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.
Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Here comes the GW talk though. Meh. =/
WTNT44 KNHC 061449
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
COLIN SHOWS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS BY 20-25 KT
OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK AND AMSU SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAIN NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE COLIN
AROUND 18Z TODAY.
JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CENTER OF COLIN TOOK A SHARP
TURN TO THE RIGHT...AND IT HAS BEEN MOVING 065/6 FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OF HIGHER PRESSURES TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
WEST SUPPORT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
THAT MOTION SHOULD BRING COLIN NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE WESTERLIES...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME
SPREAD IN THE SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER NOGAPS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION AND IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET
AND ECMWF. SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG COLIN CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION.
SHEAR FORECASTS FROM THE SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CURRENT SHOULD SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS FORECAST
OF 11 KT OF SHEAR BY 00Z. AFTER THIS...COLIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES
STRONGER SHEAR IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 72 HR.
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HR...
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
SHOULD BEGIN AT ABOUT 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE
THROUGH THAT PROCESS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 27.1N 66.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 28.3N 66.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 30.2N 66.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 32.2N 65.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 34.5N 64.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 39.5N 60.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 45.0N 52.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 11/1200Z 53.0N 41.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
yeah, best just to ignore global warming and hope it goes away.
Link
Parental guidance is strongly advised.
Yeah but its really no big deal..
Nice... is that the catl 93l?
One thing I'm seeing is the actuall llc is moving East Northeast while the convection isn't really moving a whole lot... but its building West... The llc might be trying to get sucked into the convection
I expect it to be TS Danielle early next week
lol
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Its possible.. in fact... its quite possible it could do so this weekend.... But it is rather broad... and disorganized...
Aww man!
Same thing I said at 1st glance because the overall pattern favours a more northward motion.
You look at the rest of Europe, the temperatures aren't all that pronounced.
Berlin 25C, Paris 25C, Madrid 33C, Athens 32C...
Nothing bizarre for this time of year.
Someone in Moscow must've angered Nature this year.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
You know what's funny? Alex, TD2, and Bonnie are all ignored in that statement. Colin's going out to sea thanks to a unseasonable trough, 93L might follow, 'might', as the models are now starting to shift westward. One or two systems are not a indicator of the season.
Teddy --- That guy became #40 on my list. I truly am now a firm believer that the ignore list is the way to go, my blood pressure was only 130 over 85 this morning and I contribute that to the 100% increase on that list over the last couple of days... LOL
#41 just appeared on the new blog LMAO
Naked swirl looks like its moving NE now... as a pulse of thunderstorms tries to grow westward north of the swirl. Trying hard to stack itself.
Yep it would be really hard for it to sustain an eastward motion with the current steering pattern and overall setup.... besides... on satellite you can almost see it getting sucked into the convection.
It is not that Mother Nature has been angered. I suspect that this heat wave is a manifestation of AGW due to the millions of vodka stills that are in operation this summer in the land of Lenin.
It's a conspiracy guys, no truth in that, atall atall.
LOL
Being an Ohio native, that one ranks up there with nickle beer night at the Indians game. LOL
It WILL go away. Whether man survives or not is in question. My bet is he will.
I personally do not see any further development happening.... It lacks in overall organization... and is very close to central america
lol
True. The thing is, while this blog has some good forecasters, it's rife with aftcasters and nowcasters...that is, people who look at what has happened and/or what is happening at this very instance and base their predictions for the entire season on that data alone. If the most recent storm has recurved, every storm from now until the end of the season is going to recurve. If wind shear tears one storm apart, wind shear is going to tear every system apart. If there've only been three storms in the past two months, there'll only be three named storms in the next two months. Conversely, of course, if a storm enters the GoM, every storm will follow suit. If one makes landfall in Florida, they'll all make landfall in Florida. And so on. You get the idea.
The trick, then, is to ignore the aftcasters/nowcasters, for there's nothing scientific about their methodologies. They're the forecasting equivalent of the XTRP non-model 'model'...and "right" just about as often :-)
No matter what your opinion is, please try and contain it, so that this tropical weather blog can remain just that today.
Disclaimer: Not trying to police, just don't like all of the bickering!
Well, to be fair, GW wasn't mentioned.
to much vodka poured down the drains.
the mention of the word heat will bring them
Agreed
guys couple of things before I go
1 92L is making a comback look like to at 16.5N 82.5W
2 93L might not become a fish and maybe impact the leeward Islands
3 colin seems to be moving east now
4 pre-94L what is going on !?!?
I am so glad someone else seen that, I read it twice to make sure. He's just talking about a heat wave and smoke.
sheri
I do not think the central american coast will affect development at all.
yes... indeed.
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