Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow
A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.
Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.
Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.
Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.
Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.
Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 — Blog Index
uhm...uhm...wow I'm just speechless.
Thank you sir!
I think thats how I was understanding your blog today?
Those are in mph.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
WED. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE POSITION AND THE MOISTURE RETURN. GFS
PUSHES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WESTWARD THROUGH GA AND AL AND
ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A SURFACE LOW. ECMWF IS SHOWING A
CLOSED 1010 LOW FORMING OVER TAMPA BAY WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY
UNCERTAINTY OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DIFFICULTLY THE MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE HAVING WITH THIS SYSTEM...TOOK A MODEST BLEND OF THE
THE ECMWF AND GFS ON MON AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUMPED UP POPS TO 60 ACROSS THE
BOARD ON MON. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCATTERED POPS THROUGH WED...BUT
MAY HAVE INCREASE IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WELL WEST OF THE STATE...
Gulf System next week may be
Wayne wins! Lol. Wow. Can't see where it started or ended. :)
Best Hurricane/Weather song I ever heard
LOL It's Dizzying.
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
2:50 pm SSE ( 157 deg ) 4.2 m/s
2:40 pm SE ( 130 deg ) 4.3 m/s
2:30 pm SE ( 126 deg ) 4.2 m/s
2:20 pm SE ( 124 deg ) 3.9 m/s
2:10 pm ESE ( 116 deg ) 4.9 m/s
2:00 pm ESE ( 119 deg ) 5.1 m/s
Thanks. :)
does that include so fla ? or will they be dry
That's because it's not going in a Floridian direction
Wilma was already a minimal hurricane in the location of 92L.
Except Wilma was a beast with 140mph winds and a 100 mile wide eye.
92L is over serious fuel. 87-89 degree waters or higher in smaller patches on the surface.
The warm waters are also at great depths in the area where 92L is located.
Can't imagine what a storm track like that would be, these days. It just wanted to hit everything, particularly Puerto Rico.
Only a year after it became under the United States' control.
Thanks hadn't heard that one. Added it to my collection. Here's the saddest hurricane song I ever heard. :( Link
Almost looks like a North West movement right now.
I'm starting to lean towards a center redevelopment around 83W-84W and 17N. I think the mass of convection is the cause.
What a hoot! lol
Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 6 Aug 2010 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: at 0.0 kt gusting to 1.9 ktSignificant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and fallingAir Temperature: 80.8 F
Dew Point: 76.6 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F
Probably doing what Colin is doing and pulling it under the strongest storms.
I see 92L, and when I look at it on the floaters (especially visible on water vapor here) I see what looks like good outflow on the North and South. This makes me think the storm is strengthening, but quite often, it turns out to be nothing. Sometimes, like now, I'm also fooled by persistent convection far from the center.
Am I just being confused by the high level flow? Also, am I being fooled by low level convergence? What causes that stronger convection far from the center?
Thank You in Advance!
A total of 32 tropical depressions formed in 1986 in the Western Pacific over an eleven month time span. Of the 32, 30 became tropical storms, 19 storms reached typhoon intensity, and 3 reached super typhoon strength.
.... conditions in the WPac must have been splendiferous.... lol
Hi Homeless.....you got mail
Tip was 1979.
Conditions at 42057 as of
(3:50 pm EDT)
1950 GMT on 08/06/2010:
Wind Speed (WSPD): 0.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 1.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.1 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1011.8 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.8 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.1 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.0 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 24.8 °C
Heat Index (HEAT): 30.7 °C
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
3:50 pm ESE ( 106 deg ) 0.4 m/s
3:40 pm S ( 177 deg ) 0.7 m/s
3:30 pm S ( 176 deg ) 1.6 m/s
3:20 pm SSW ( 193 deg ) 2.6 m/s
3:10 pm S ( 189 deg ) 3.6 m/s
3:00 pm S ( 178 deg ) 4.0 m/s
With extremely warm waters underneath it, might not have a problem fueling itself.
Viewing: 601 - 651
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 — Blog Index