Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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i'm sure we'll understand it all better in the morning.
goodnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


I Did some resarch on Bermuda.

Incoming flights to bermuda tommorow are still schedualed.


I sort of wished I did sometime in the (Canadian) East Coast navy, their secondary post was Bermuda, us poor west coasters got stuck with Pearl Harbour :)
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Quoting weatherman12345:

im not reading the right thing, colin is under 20k of shear right?


Actually it is under only about 10kts of shear....



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Quoting will45:


not with an anticyclone above it prob not just yet



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115386
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes, a lot of people call this a fish... I don't



I think its not so much its Bermuda, its the fact that its not a large place like the CONUS. For example, back in '07 I was flipping channels on the TV with a few of my friends and we stopped to watch the 'Tropical update' on BayNews9 and Dean was about to hit the Yucatan as a Category 5. He just says 'well, better them than us right?'. Humberto got more attention than Dean.
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1603. JLPR2
Another interesting area south of the Cape Verde islands.

But Ascat missed it, so unusual right? -.-




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Quoting Hurricanes101:
looking at 93L, I have to agree with the comments made by kman, the area further to the south and east; may indeed become the dominant area of development
I guess that answers my qtn. I think that SE area actually entered as a separate entity....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22595
StormW & other bloggers on here said things would pick up towards the middle of August. The dry air seems to be losing its punch. 93L may pave the way for storms to follow.
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Quoting CrazyDuke:
A fairly well developed rotating thunderstorm complex just exited the coast near Charleston, SC. I don't expect anything out of it because of it's association with the trough. But, it looks interesting at least.


I think that is the area that the ECMWF hints at for possible development
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Tow this to the gulf to cool the sst....


An ice chunk four times the size of Manhattan has broken off of Greenland's Petermann glacier—possibly the biggest glacier collapse in recorded history, scientists announced Friday...

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/08/100806-ice-chunk-island-greenland-glacier-petermann -biggest-science/


I read the article. National Geographic didn't say anything about the glacier moving faster than previously, or that the glacier was melting faster than expected. This was an ice shelf. It was bound to break off sooner or later. It just happened to do it in one big piece instead of 20 little pieces.

They did say it was the largest break-off of a glacier in 'recorded history', but then we've only been recording such things since the late 1960's and the age of satellites. Other than that, it is the largest one we KNOW of before that, but it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

I didn't see anything alarmist or really significant about this.
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I need to start heading to bed. Unlike other Fridays, I have to consider getting up relatively early tomorrow, and if I'm going to blog at all before going out, I need to sleep before 2 a.m. I'm really interested in whether we'll see this continued trend of AOIs looking really good by day and funking out by night....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22595
1596. SLU


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A fairly well developed rotating thunderstorm complex just exited the coast near Charleston, SC. I don't expect anything out of it because of it's association with the trough. But, it looks interesting at least.
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1594. will45
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if there going too drop 93L


not with an anticyclone above it prob not just yet
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1592. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


neither do I, but for many if it doesnt affect the US, than it is a fish storm


The sad reality.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if there going too drop 93L


no way, they will likely keep it at 40%

no reason to drop it
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1589. Levi32
....think I'm going to have to join Holly and take my leave. You guys are worse than my local middle school.

Goodnight.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes, a lot of people call this a fish... I don't



neither do I, but for many if it doesnt affect the US, than it is a fish storm
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i wounder if there going too drop 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115386
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yup. I think sometimes people forget about Bermuda.


Yes, a lot of people call this a fish... I don't

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1583. JLPR2
Quoting EricSFL:
Talking about repetitions... Here is a list of some of the most repeated phrases on the blog:
take it with a grain of salt
bla bla bla caster!
eating crow
gaining lattitude
press the ignore button
poof!


poof is #1 or close to it LOL XD
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yup. I think sometimes people forget about Bermuda.


Unfortunately yes. Bill, Florence, Bertha all affected Bermuda.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WTF IS THIS


She already knew u were going to do that.... and say that!

heheehehe
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's the last thing they need. Fabian was absolutely devastating. Of course, Fabian was out shadowed by the next CV system.


Yup. I think sometimes people forget about Bermuda.
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Hi Baha. Yeah, watching the churning and the turning. Getting a bit more nervous now about the Cape Verde waves.
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1575. EricSFL
Talking about repetitions... Here is a list of some of the most repeated phrases on the blog:
take it with a grain of salt
bla bla bla caster!
eating crow
gaining lattitude
press the ignore button
poof!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you mean 92L


no I mean 93L
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening all......just got back from dinner. Guess i should have stayed a little longer by the sounds of this blog.


It was just me being stupid, I've learned my lesson and ignored hurrkat. How you doing?
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Quoting ho77yw00d:



WOW you know what I am out of here tonight! you have no right to talk about him he did nothing to you and I respect his "opinions"
grow up I mean really just grow up.. he is a very smart kid he knows a heck lot more then me... I would tell you where to go but looking at your avatar your already there!!

POOF


Thank you
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For thoses interested, presentations from the NHC forecasters at this years Florida Govenors Hurricane Conference are available. Most are compressed files (zip) that will need to be uncompressed.

Name or Not Name, Forecast Verification
Introduction to Tropical Cyclones
Probability, Surge
Seasonal Forecasting, Climate, Track, Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (largest file 21mb)
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1569. JLPR2
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Don't make me make you number 42 LOL


Go ahead if you wish, I doubt I'm in many ignore lists. LOL

But if your resistance is that low then I dont recommend this blog to you. XD
I have 10 on my ignore list, my patience and forgiveness apparently is amazing. XD
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
looking at 93L, I have to agree with the comments made by kman, the area further to the south and east; may indeed become the dominant area of development



you mean 92L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115386
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good thing this isn't Fabian.


That's the last thing they need. Fabian was absolutely devastating. Of course, Fabian was out shadowed by the next CV system.
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1564. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good thing this isn't Fabian.


Oh yeah...
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Evening all......just got back from dinner. Guess i should have stayed a little longer by the sounds of this blog.
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1562. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:


93L's main problem is its shear size. It appears to be developing multiple, competing centers. Heck, it almost looks like monsoonal development out in the ITCZ.


In fact, during active years, everything that develops within the ITCZ between Africa and 35-40W is monsoonal in nature.
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It's funny that people were wondering why some of the old bloggers don't come on anymore. They do actually, just not in the evenings. Thanks to all of you who brave the frustration and provide me and the rest of the lurkers (and occasional posters) on here with our evening information!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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