Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak
Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.
Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.
93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.
Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.
The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.
Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Next post
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yep.
Goodnight everyone!
Also, nice looking TW off Africa.
Oh, ok. I think he meant the strm itself may d a anticyclnic lp. n post 2064 see hw the mdels loop it back east? That's prbly what he meant. I think. :)
Yeah. Loking at the wave just exited Africa and all the thers. Fixing t get busy.
Africa
GFS has been indicating a substantial relaxation of the vertical shear beginning in about five days as the persistent troughiness finally begins to subside.
Now, whether or not this actually materializes is another story entirely.
What I meant by "anticyclonic loop" was just a slow, clockwise movement which would ultimately cause a "looping" motion in the track.
An example of a loop:
Obviously, this one was a cyclonic loop. But it illustrates what I'm trying to construe rather well, I think.
430 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2010
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W MOVE W
OF AREA TODAY. FRONTAL TROUGH FROM TAMPA BAY NW TO 29N87W DRIFT
SW AS LOW PRES CURRENTLY ALONG FLORIDA NE COAST TRACKS SW ACROSS
N FLORIDA TODAY AND EMERGES INTO EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. LOW PRES
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 29N86W TUE...AND INLAND LOUISIANA THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 26N.
..............................................
From this mornings Tallahassee discussion.....
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST WILL REMAIN ON
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK WEST OVER THE FL
PENINSULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SOUTH
OF OUR MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH ITS
POSITION RELATIVE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF IT AND THE TUTT
CELL...DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
OUTLIERS...THE MODELS REFLECT THIS QUITE WELL AND GENERALLY INDICATE
A WEAK LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN
IMPACT RELATIVE TO OUR LOCAL AREA WILL BE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/PANHANDLE AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OUT OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR
TWO.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. BOTH THE 00Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF LOUISIANA
BY THURSDAY. NEITHER MODEL STRENGTHENS THIS FEATURE VERY MUCH...BUT
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL LIKELY KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. BEYOND THURSDAY BOTH
MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING INLAND NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AND
BECOMING VERY DIFFUSE AND HARD TO TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OUR DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. MAX DAILY HEAT INDICES MAY GRADUALLY
CREEP UP TOWARDS THE 110 DEGREE LEVEL ON OCCASION AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY AS
IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
From Local JAX NWS discussion:
UPPER LOW NEAR BAHAMAS AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF FLAGLER BEACH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
94L hardly has any vorticity with it at 48 hours....
first, it's only a weak surfac low, so it's not like it's got anything to decouple from. second, It's probably gonna just exit inot the gom as an open wave.
1032, eh, Ike??
Interesting graph, Storm.
It's either:
Perhaps a good sign or the readings are wrong.
Or:
Since Manchester City were in Baltimore recently, and one of the richest clubs in the world, they've decided to paint the sea in their colour as an advertising gimmick.
The second is quite persuading...
(scares stormw cause I'm actully trying to answer)
I see decreased wind shear and increased up lift, uh thats positive NAO, right? in the MDR
scott- I was just gonna post what you posted! :)
1984??
I sure don't see it from the ECMWF or GFS.
A lot of that thinking has been said about every future week to 2 weeks, since mid-late July.
I see nothing significant affecting the USA or anywhere, through Aug. 16th....if not beyond....right now.
The latest GFS is showing a couple of troughs in the eastern USA over the next 7 days.
Maybe that's why this is the 6-10 day temp outlook....
excpet for the IO but that area is kinda not favorable for TC development cause it's monsoonal seasn over there
Nearly the entire MDR devoid of positive SST anomalies 26 years ago. In fact, much of the entire equatorial region was heavy on the negative.
Oh, and the USSR was still intact, so some of the borders in Europe and Asia look different than they do now. But I don't think that's what you meant. :-)
now the next graphic is totally opposite- is that a pot of peanuts boiling?
An El Nino ?
lotsa folks sticking to thoer guns this year.
Red hot !
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