Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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93L is most likely a Tropical Depression, but because it is far out to sea, and expected to stay that way. They are not paying much attention to it, unless it develops deep convection, but this is most likely a TD right now with a nice closed LLC, some convection and nice banding.
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429. IKE
Latest GFS through August 24th...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting sporteguy03:

exaggeration?
Yeah. Pulverizing is a strong word.
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Quoting Drakoen:


That is the UKMET 00z text. The analysis found 93L to be a tropical depression.

Oh. Thanks.
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Quoting Drakoen:
93L has the potential to become significant system as it recurves out to sea. Re models are really strengthening the system.
As long as it heads out to sea let it intensify all it wants...at least our ACE will go up.
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Drak, any chance for 93 to loop in a sense?
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Quoting OneDrop:

The point is that based on climatology of the past, there was a greater chance of an over-active hurricane season. It's like this, when the NWS says there is a 80% of rain, what they're really saying is that based on atmospheric conditions of that day, it rained 80 out of 100 times. It doesn't mean it will rain over your house but there is a good chance it will. Key word being Chance. With that being said, based on this years predicitons for storms, I would be a little more prepared than usual because it could blow up or it could not. It only takes one bad one to make it a bad year and if you don't get hit by chance then drink your water, eat your tunafish sandwiches, break open the canned chili and make chili dogs and be thankful nobody's life was affected by what was supposed to be a bad season. We have a long way to go and anything could happen so just monitor the Atlantic and be prepared for anything.
been thru plenty of major hurricanes..i am always prepared with regard to the hurricane season.
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Quoting donna1960ruled:
Fr. Scholls of Kenisaw Community College has revised his 2010 Hurricane forecast.....

5 Named Storms
0 Hurricanes
0 Major Hurricanes


Looks like Dr. Scholls is going to be out of a job... considering we already had one cane
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93L has the potential to become significant system as it recurves out to sea. Re models are really strengthening the system.
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Quoting Dr3w:
94L is pulvarizing my area, we are under flood watches and tornado watches.

exaggeration?
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when was there a TCFA on 93?
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Quoting divdog:
they are both doomed to the graveyard known as the north atlantic
That will be north of 35-40N where SSTs are not warm enough to support a tropical cyclone, also where upper level conditions turn very hostile.
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Quoting divdog:
i never said vast majority you did. it's boring to hear over and over the caps coming off ... here we go .. the atlantic is about break loose. Nobody knows if and when it will happen. just because science tells me it should be busy does not mean that will be the outcome. I continue to see storms getting torn apart and a part of me believes that may continue. the pattern may change or it may not. who is to say.

The point is that based on climatology of the past, there was a greater chance of an over-active hurricane season. It's like this, when the NWS says there is a 80% of rain, what they're really saying is that based on atmospheric conditions of that day, it rained 80 out of 100 times. It doesn't mean it will rain over your house but there is a good chance it will. Key word being Chance. With that being said, based on this years predicitons for storms, I would be a little more prepared than usual because it could blow up or it could not. It only takes one bad one to make it a bad year and if you don't get hit by chance then drink your water, eat your tunafish sandwiches, break open the canned chili and make chili dogs and be thankful nobody's life was affected by what was supposed to be a bad season. We have a long way to go and anything could happen so just monitor the Atlantic and be prepared for anything.
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Quoting Vero1:


THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MOSTLY ELY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NOW LIES ALONG 16N63W TO 12N63W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 59W-65W.

TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD.


Vero, to me it looks more then a simple surface trough, low level clouds are looking like a circulation is forming at the surface. It is still disorganized, but becoming more and more organized with every satellite frame that goes by.
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Glad you asked that Ike. I was going to question the over hyping with the use of the word pulverizing myself.
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Quoting donna1960ruled:


Later for 94L, 95L is the bomb.


eh?
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm 04L (COLIN)
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of SUN 08 Aug 2010 16:21:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST T.C.F.A
04L.FOUR
East Pacific
07E.ESTELLE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
05W.FIVE
99W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Huh?


That is the UKMET 00z text. The analysis found 93L to be a tropical depression.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would say that 93L is more organized than Colin...however satellite imagery shows an open circulation to the south.

RGB satellite imagery
they are both doomed to the graveyard known as the north atlantic
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before or after it crosses?
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


In what sense, development or such?


Current structure, vertical development, circulation... pretty much everything at the current moment... imo both storms are doomed in the long run.
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Quoting MrstormX:
93L more vigorous then Colin
I would say that 93L is more organized than Colin...however satellite imagery shows an open circulation to the south/east associated with 93L.

RGB satellite imagery
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404. IKE
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ike whats you preception on 94 and 93?


93L is exposed right now. It might make a TD or weak TS...looks like it heads out to sea.

94L...according to the NHC....

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE W OF AREA BY TONIGHT. FRONTAL TROUGH LIES
OVER THE GULF FROM TAMPA BAY TO 28N85W TO NEAR GRANDE ISLE
LOUISIANA. LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL TROUGH OFF
FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT MOVE TO 27N85W TUE MORNING...28N88W WED
MORNING...AND 29N90W THU MORNING.


Maybe 94L gets to a tropical depression or weak tropical storm.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
403. Vero1
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
StormW, Drak, thoughts on the possible low level circulation developing at 13N/65W in the eastern Caribbean Sea?


THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MOSTLY ELY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NOW LIES ALONG 16N63W TO 12N63W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 59W-65W.

TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD.
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Quoting stillwaiting:



I believe this is the same area I mentioned yesterday as it was about 100miles off nc coastline,its moved SSW in the last 24hrs and w/probably due the same for atleast the next 24hrs,their also appears to be a mid level cyclonic circulation just over the northern bahamas,so 94L has some organizing to do!!!!


Yea the same system that developed a couple tornados over Boca Raton last night.
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this wait in telll 94L get in too the gulf
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Quoting cheaterwon:
probably a stupid question but how does the gulf stream help or hurt the development of a tropical system.
very warm water
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Quoting cheaterwon:
probably a stupid question but how does the gulf stream help or hurt the development of a tropical system.


I think it helps because the waters are warmer in the gulf stream.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting MrstormX:
93L more vigorous then Colin


In what sense, development or such?
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Quoting StormW:


Nice broad low!

Hey Drak!



I believe this is the same area I mentioned yesterday as it was about 100miles off nc coastline,its moved SSW in the last 24hrs and w/probably due the same for atleast the next 24hrs,their also appears to be a mid level cyclonic circulation just over the northern bahamas,so 94L has some organizing to do!!!!
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396. 7544
94l now moving ssw tia ?
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the tropics are drunk
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Quoting Drakoen:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT
POSITION : 20.8N 41.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2010 20.8N 41.1W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2010 21.2N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2010 21.5N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2010 22.6N 48.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2010 23.6N 50.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2010 24.2N 52.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2010 25.0N 53.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2010 26.9N 54.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2010 28.7N 53.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2010 30.7N 52.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2010 32.7N 49.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2010 34.8N 46.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2010 36.4N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Huh?
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93L more vigorous then Colin
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HPC I think I need a nap before I understand this. Lol

FEATURE CROSSING FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: SLOWER THAN THE NAM BY TUE NIGHT-WED... 16Z TPC/HPC
COORDINATION POSN OF 28N 86W AT 12Z WED

EACH MODEL HAS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IDEAS WITH MID LVL DETAILS. THE
GFS IS ON THE NRN FRINGE OF GUIDANCE WITH ITS PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WEAKER THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS WITH
THE REMAINING MID LVL REFLECTION CROSSING THE GULF... SO ITS SFC
REFLECTION IS MORE DIFFUSE THAN THE AVERAGE OF OTHER SOLNS. THE
12Z UKMET THRU F72 EARLY WED STRAYS TO THE E/NE OF THE PRIMARY
CLUSTER OF SOLNS BY LATE TUE-WED. MEANWHILE THE NAM IS ON THE ERN
SIDE OF THE SPREAD AS OF LATE MON BUT GRADUALLY TRENDS FASTER SO
THAT IT IS IN THE WRN HALF OF THE SPREAD BY WED. PER 16Z TPC/HPC
MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION... PREFER A TRACK THAT YIELDS A SFC POSN
OF 28N 86W FOR F72/12Z WED. BASED ON A DAY 4 POSN OF 29N 89W THE
INTERPOLATED POSN FOR F84 LATE WED WOULD BE 28.5N 87.5W. THE NAM
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STG ALOFT AND DOES BECOME TOO FAST LATER IN
THE FCST BUT OTHERWISE IT PROVIDES A BETTER DEFINED FEATURE CLOSER
TO CONSENSUS.

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting beell:
If anybody can see this post...have a nice day.



is see you
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you too Bell
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389. beell
If anybody can see this post...have a nice day.
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Quoting IKE:


Where are the tornado watches?


There are none...
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Quoting cheaterwon:
probably a stupid question but how does the gulf stream help or hurt the development of a tropical system.



it helps
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Quoting MechEngMet:


Humans eat two meter long jelly fish??? Well I never knew. It's absolutely amazing the kinds of things you can learn on the internet these days.

Can you please find me a link to a recipe for 2 meter jelly fish? I checked food network.com but no luck. Where do I buy a two meter Jelly fish, the local fish market?

Google
fresh jellyfish recipe


Advanced search
About 1,250,000 results (0.33 seconds)

Probably find it dried at local Asian Grocery.
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So, I asked 50,000 Cancer specialists at MD Anderson Cancer center to review my case, and they all agreed that I have cancer. I asked Glenn Beck to review my case, and he said I'm fine. Obviously I'm cancer-free. What do scientists know?

That being said, I love this blog. Cautiously watching that new area off of the FL coast since a couple of the models show it coming right into Houston in a few days.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Its over gulf stream
probably a stupid question but how does the gulf stream help or hurt the development of a tropical system.
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Ike whats you preception on 94 and 93?
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Quoting IKE:


Where are the tornado watches?



last time i look i did not see any tornado watches for FL
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StormW, Drak, thoughts on the possible low level circulation developing at 13N/65W in the eastern Caribbean Sea?
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380. IKE
Quoting Dr3w:
94L is pulvarizing my area, we are under flood watches and tornado watches.


Where are the tornado watches?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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