Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2480. sebastianflorida
5:57 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


This could be our next invest.
Think I'll have to change my numbers to 20 Invests, 11 stay yellow, 5 Oranges, 4 Reds. No God Awful Storms just a bunch of wimpy half as# type storms.
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 719
2479. weathernerdcc
5:14 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Quoting surfsidesindy:


In East Central Florida it's 110% humidity and dead calm. UGH.


Umm, sarcasm flag??? I do know the feeling, if you stomp your foot, it will cause a rain shower.
Member Since: July 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
2478. txsweetpea
3:56 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Quoting RitaEvac:
I never do this hardly, but I'm exptecting a named storm in the gulf from 94L


I agree with you.
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
2477. catastropheadjuster
3:51 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
I am just wondering the invest94 really don't have much of a chance does it. I mean its so close to Florida and all. It wouldn't have much time to become anything would it?
sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
2476. scottsvb
3:43 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Pat your looking at the midlevel cut off low.. that is not @ the surface :(
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
2475. blueyedhrlyridr
3:33 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Chriss with Impact Weather still believes 94L will still be a Southeast Louisiana event. Even with the relocation tghis morning
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 76
2474. mcluvincane
3:31 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Just looking at the models and nothing to shake a stick at. What gives? Thought mid August was going to be a ramp up in activity.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1394
2473. TampaSpin
3:25 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
There is a strong Mid Level Circulation East of Tampa....and there are 2 circulations near the Surface just West of Naples and the other is just NE of Miami. The Strongest of the 2 Surface Cirulations is near Naples. The current big player in all of this is the ULL located to the East of Florida and another ULL located in the middle of Texas. That is what i see currently! Those ULL is causing Shear of 20kts on the East Coast of Florida and 15kts of shear on the West Coast of Florida. The better chance of something to develop would be at the Naples Circualtion. Time will tell and we will see over the next 12hrs as conditions should improve from the current Shear.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2472. HarleyStormDude52
3:22 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
2470. HouGalv08 10:20 AM CDT on August 09, 2010
93L...really, who cares, other than shipping interests? 94L going to be the first real story maker if it winds up tight like the GFDL was projecting last night, as a CAT 3 smacking into the upper TX coast. The potential for real damage is there if all the factors come together correctly.



We need the rain, but I jsut want a good TD!!!!! Cat3 go away!!
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
2471. Patrap
3:21 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Take yer powers of observation to the NEW Blog..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2470. HouGalv08
3:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
93L...really, who cares, other than shipping interests? 94L going to be the first real story maker if it winds up tight like the GFDL was projecting last night, as a CAT 3 smacking into the upper TX coast. The potential for real damage is there if all the factors come together correctly.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
2469. Ossqss
3:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Model tool if interested. Options are below the graphic, models are on the slide bar on the right :)

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/kml/94-googlemaps.html
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
2468. HarleyStormDude52
3:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Keep 94L as a TD or a small TS and we will take it right here in SE Texas... not a problem..
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
2465. nrtiwlnvragn
3:19 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276
2464. Abacosurf
3:19 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
The CoC is East of Tampa proper..not near Naples..the Radar clearly shows the CoC.





AT the surface we have S.E. winds in Naples and due west winds in pulaski shoals just west of key west.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
2463. weathermanwannabe
3:18 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Starting to get slightly gusty over the Florida Big bend which is a sign of a developing circulation to our SE....Looks likes some squally weather and topical "drizzle" on tap for parts of Florida if this develops in the Eastern Gulf.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9342
2462. RitaEvac
3:18 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
sammy serving yourself huh
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
2461. Abacosurf
3:16 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Water at naples pier is between 88 and 89 degrees.

I was longboaridng at the pier last night..

It's bloody HOT!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
2459. RitaEvac
3:15 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Nobody knows where 94L is heading, it isn't even defined yet. Models tell you the pattern of steering movement of the system not where it's going directly to go
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
2458. Patrap
3:15 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
The CoC is East of Tampa proper..not near Naples..the Radar clearly shows the CoC.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2456. Neapolitan
3:14 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Yet another close up showing the putative COC 70 miles or so due west of Naples (click to enlarge):

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
2455. cyclonekid
3:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Tropical Storm Estelle
National Hurricane Center Advisory #15
11am EDT Graphics Update

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
2454. Patrap
3:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2453. TexasHurricane
3:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
So is 94L still suppose to go to LA?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2451. nrtiwlnvragn
3:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
My predictor was they changed the description of AL93 from METWATCH to WARNING, which usually indicates a change in classification. Learned not a reliable indicator.

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL932010
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010080812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276
2450. Patrap
3:12 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
93L is Phish of the Highest order...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2449. Hurricanes101
3:12 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Quoting kshipre1:
good morning Storm,

the red line you have going throug Tampa Bay, are you saying that a storm could start there than move sw? Thanks


thats not a line, its a tropical storm symbol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
2448. kshipre1
3:11 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
good morning Storm,

the red line you have going throug Tampa Bay, are you saying that a storm could start there than move sw? Thanks
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
2447. Hurricanes101
3:10 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
2443. IKE 3:09 PM GMT on August 09, 2010

too bad for the shear that 93L has an anticyclone located with it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
2446. MrstormX
3:10 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
HPC does develop 94L which is interesting

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2445. RitaEvac
3:10 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
I never do this hardly, but I'm exptecting a named storm in the gulf from 94L
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
2444. TampaSpin
3:09 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
20kts of shear on the East Coast and 15kts of shear on the West Coast of Florida! I know where i would develop if i was wanna be storm.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2443. IKE
3:09 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Well, looks like I was wrong on thinking they would initiate TD05. As the line from the Buffett song goes "Don't ever forget that you just may wind up being wrong".


Looks like it's heading into some shear....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2441. Tropicsweatherpr
3:08 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Well, looks like I was wrong on thinking they would initiate TD05. As the line from the Buffett song goes "Don't ever forget that you just may wind up being wrong".


I guess they want to see more convection around the LLC to then upgrade.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14598
2440. KennyNebraska
3:08 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


QUE:


I like hypecasters! :)
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
2438. MrstormX
3:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Quoting RitaEvac:
thats the Upper low dude


Aye you are right, whats with all these ULLs in the GOM this year? Btw here is the 24 hour forecast...

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
2437. Seastep
3:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
93L closed:

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
2435. RitaEvac
3:06 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
stormw thats a cheesy graphic....but it gets the point across!
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
2434. Drakoen
3:06 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
2433. SouthDadeFish
3:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
The SW spin will become the dominant one as it is in a more favorable environment and will rob the East spin of any convection it tries to develop. The SW spin already has formed a broad surface circulation.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
2432. TampaSpin
3:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Chances for sure are much greater for something to develop off the West Coast of South Florida than on the East Coast. Current shear is much better on the West Coast as the ULL is near the East Coast.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2431. nrtiwlnvragn
3:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2010
Well, looks like I was wrong on thinking they would initiate TD05. As the line from the Buffett song goes "Don't ever forget that you just may wind up being wrong".
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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