Tropical Depression Five struggling

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:13 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

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Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of TD Five from the Florida Panhandle radar.

93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Think the reason that we see such inconsistencies in naming classification is simple, surface observation. QuikSCAT died, ASCAT sucks, and where 93L is there are no buoys in 500 miles or so. How many buoys are in the Gulf? A lot of them. Is there a limit a hurricane hunter aircraft can go in the Gulf? Nope.
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Quoting btwntx08:

nope sry im fine thank u how about u take urs


Even something so simple as using correct grammar would make people take you a lot more seriously. For example:

"Nope, sorry. I'm fine, thank you. How about you take yours?"

Sorry for the OT, I'm trying to improve the blog. I think the system just east of the islands will be our next invest. I'm out for now...
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Just for fun where would you put the center of xTD5?
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Quoting fallinstorms:


u know alot about me lol

maybe because ya troll the chat together i believe your chat trollin buds
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
346. MahFL
Can everyone see the new coc ?
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345. Prgal
Quoting nolacane2009:


Got tired of reading his stupidity so I just ignored him. I am here to learn not be read false statements.


Yeah, she should go play YoVille or something.
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341. xcool
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Quoting Prgal:


He comes every season and does the same thing. He wont change because he is probably a kid with nothing else to do. Maybe his parents dont give him enough attention, I dont know.


Got tired of reading his stupidity so I just ignored him. I am here to learn not be read false statements.
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336. Prgal
Quoting btwntx08:
also if u didnt know fallinstorms is a girl


LOL, I didnt know that. Well, change my comments from "he" to "she" lol.
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Quoting FloridaDweller:


Oh geez, come on! You are off your rocker and need to come back to reality.
and he's one to you should stop by chat sometime
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no he's not a bot he is a TROLL

Yeah I know.. I say we issue a advisory that Fallen is a troll/bot can get out of control.. This would be my last advisory.. So hear this warning..lol
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Quoting Levi32:


No not their knowledge, just their guidelines for naming tropical systems. There is no one set of rules for them in recent years. It changes with every storm. They are experts and know their stuff, but they need to pick criteria.


Interesting. I wonder how much influence the forecasters get from higher-ups. They are, after all, a government agency.

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332. xcool
btwntx08:ARE YOU OKAY
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331. Prgal
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
fallin.. u keep posting stuff thats not funny at all but u say u speak the truth.. I dont really believe what u say.. Ur no expert or nor i am either.. But its rediculous of keep posting nonsense when u don't explain urself.. We havent reached the peak of the season and ur already jumping ship.. That tells me a lot more about u.. So there's ur truth..


He comes every season and does the same thing. He wont change because he is probably a kid with nothing else to do. Maybe his parents dont give him enough attention, I dont know.
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Well I dont know if you guys remember this but I remember reading an article earlier this year about someone/company trying to put out devices in the oceans to deter tropical systems you think they are behind all these failing storms :P.
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Looks like the circulation up around the FL/AL border will come ashore around Mobile/Pascagoula.

I'm really interested in the circulation southeast of there though. The most dominant circulation is obviously the one northwest of there, but if you look closely enough, you can see the circulation west of Florida trying to bend the flow around it.
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Quoting reedzone:
I know, I know, they are the experts, but sometimes I question their knowledge...


maybe their judgement not their knowledge
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
Quoting btwntx08:
someone email the nhc saying u didnt track the right llc and we(wu bloggers) have more evidence than u (nhc)


Oh geez, come on! You are off your rocker and need to come back to reality.
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fallin.. u keep posting stuff thats not funny at all but u say u speak the truth.. I dont really believe what u say.. Ur no expert or nor i am either.. But its rediculous of keep posting nonsense when u don't explain urself.. We havent reached the peak of the season and ur already jumping ship.. That tells me a lot more about u.. So there's ur truth..
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321. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


Completely agree....I could care less anymore which set of criteria they pick, just pick one and stick to it. They dug their own hole by classifying it yesterday and now by their own rules they have to keep it classified. But no....more inconsistency.


I'm glad that we see eye to eye on this consistency issue.
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Quoting reedzone:
I know, I know, they are the experts, but sometimes I question their knowledge...


No not their knowledge, just their guidelines for naming tropical systems. There is no one set of rules for them in recent years. It changes with every storm. They are experts and know their stuff, but they need to pick criteria.
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

Im starting to think ur a bot.. What I mean is keep posting stuff and never give useful info.. Its all ur sake or the highway.. get ur weak stuff outta here!
no he's not a bot he is a TROLL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
I find it funny how certain individuals in here are bashing the NHC, yet a couple of weeks ago were reporting and placing people on ignore because THEY were bashing the NHC...It seems when the "experts" agree with your prognostications, they are the experts, yet when they disagree with you they are "stupid".
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315. Prgal
Just stop quoting fallinstorms and he will go away. He just needs attention, that's all...so don't give it to him.
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313. xcool
btwntx08 .Are you okay? I am a little worried
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well.... since 05l was declassified... ill be back for the two.
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I know, I know, they are the experts, but sometimes I question their knowledge...
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Quoting scott39:
Do you think it may still slow down and organize tonight?


Maybe, if it hugs the coast westward, but it's now farther east than it was supposed to be so the environment may not become as favorable as it could have at the last minute.
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Is this season ever gonna live up to its potential? If there is one, I swear I will destroy the Weather God for making this hurricane season so booooring. I mean at first we expected a hurricane from Danielle now barely a TD.
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Quoting btwntx08:
someone email the nhc saying u didnt track the right llc and we(wu bloggers) have more evidence than u (nhc)


Ok, I'm all for questioning the NHC, but that's a little much.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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