Tropical Depression Five struggling
Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.
Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of TD Five from the Florida Panhandle radar.
93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.
Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
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I'm out. I should be able to look in at some point today [who knows when], prolly after Doc does an update.
Have a good one, all.
Me. I can't afford one of them Digital Converter Calendars.
Hahaha.... I luv the morning blog with a nice cup of coffee 2 scoops of sugar and a dash of creamer.
80.0 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 95%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.80 in (Steady
Thanks for that, SLU.
Looking forward to more...
Digital all the way!
--
My point with those seven years is just purely statistical. I've no point to 'back up'; I made no "forecast" to do with storm numbers before the season. I doubt even Nature has a complete idea yet.
You can make a better bet how the season'll play out in about a month as that's when the peak is.
The Calm before ????
Please excuse my Bad Manners...
Good Morning, to ALL!!
Lovely one here!
And they continue to. And it may verify. But I'll bet my commission check that none of the experts expected the total on August 12th, 2010 to be.....3-1-0....with storm #4 being days away. It's fascinating to watch and read excuses.
Right Joe Bastardi? "Above-normal tropical activity should feature four named storms in July, with one or two impacting the coastal areas," said Bastardi.
Oops!
Link
Researchers will launch three projects -- and a fleet of aircraft, including an unmanned drone -- intended to improve forecasts of hurricane intensity.
To bad we don't have the funding to run these research programs for the whole season. We would have had ample opportunities to collect data on why storms don't form, which I feel is just as important as collecting data on why they do form. Lots of upper air data from data sparse regions from the dropsondes in these programs will help.
That was a good one 6.9
What were your preseason #'s?
Agree
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
21:00 PM JST August 12 2010
============================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Dianmu (994 hPa) located at 39.6N 142.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 28 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Gale Force Winds
==================
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 47.5N 158.7E - Extratropical
But anyone who lives along the EATL coast who is not prepared at this time is a total fool.
I live in Ft. Laud. Fla home has shutters generator and buckets full of three days of supplies for my family of four. I will not need a busy season or people whining about the lack of storms it only takes ONE (ANDREW) to ruin your day... or year....BE PREPARED
Most come here for information and education and could care less about your predictions.
The red is for all tropical storms and hurricanes. The yellow is for hurricanes only. The average number of hurricanes active in the N Atlantic on Sept 10 is about 0.55 (55 canes in 100 years). The average number of TS's and/or hurricanes is about 0.95.
For August 20, looks like 0.25 hurricanes, 0.45 for all TS's and up.
being born and raised in South Florida. I know we never even thought about the season until September 1st growing up. I remember thinking Andrew was a very early storm at the time. I don't believe June through August is telling of much of anything. just my opinion...
keep thinking that as in we are in for a surprise?
Better than two other recurring topics:
GW or JustFreakingVexatious
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