ex-TD 5 regenerating; globe has 2nd or 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system has enough spin to regenerate into a tropical depression later today or early Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense but disorganized thunderstorms lies over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity is intensifying and growing more organized. A center of circulation is becoming more defined about 60 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida. Strong upper-level winds out of the northeast are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over ex-TD 5, and this shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the northern side of the center of circulation. Thus, I expect that heavy thunderstorms will be slow to develop over land today. By Tuesday, ex-TD 5 should be able to intensify into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds, and heavy rains should spread across the entire Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. All of the models bring ex-TD 5 back ashore over Louisiana on Tuesday, and it is unlikely the storm will get sustained winds stronger than 50 mph. The GFDL model predicts ex-TD 5 will stay below tropical storm strength, while the HWRF predicts a 45-mph tropical storm at landfall on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters will fly into ex-TD 5 this afternoon to see if it has regenerated into a tropical depression. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models continue to predict a major pattern shift in the global atmospheric circulation late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and start to the Cape Verdes hurricane season. Most of the models predict a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras late this week.

Smoke clears from Moscow
Moderate westerly winds over the past few hours have cleared Moscow's air, bringing an end to a 42-hour period where smoke from persistent wildfires blanketed the city. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today, which is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls continued very hot temperatures and light and variable winds through Wednesday, as Russia's record heat wave continues. However, on Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure is expected to move through European Russia, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for July, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Second or fifth warmest July on record for the globe
July 2010 was the second warmest July on record, behind 1998, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). July was the first month since February that was not the warmest on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2010 the fifth warmest July on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - July, as the warmest such period on record. July 2010 global ocean temperatures were the fifth warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in July, according to University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), and the warmeest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS).

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from July 2010.

Russia, Finland, and Qatar set all time heat records
Three nations--Russia, Finland, and Qatar--recorded their hottest temperatures in history during July 2010. No nation set a coldest temperature of all time record.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old recrod for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) The source for the previous all-time records listed here is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt.

Seventeenth warmest July on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 17th warmest July in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to July, was the 27th warmest such period on record. Two states, Delaware and Rhode Island, had their warmest July on record. Fourteen other states had a top-ten warmest July on record, including nearly every state on the Atlantic East Coast. No state recorded a top-ten coldest July.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., July 2010 ranked as the 36th wettest July in the 116-year record. Four states--Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska--had a top ten wettest July on record. Only Louisiana had a top-ten driest July on record.


Figure 3. The record-setting hailstone of July 23, 2010, that fell on Vivian, South Dakota. Image credit: National Weather Service, South Dakota.

Record hailstone falls in South Dakota
A severe storm on July 23rd dropped hundreds of massive hailstones on the small town of Vivian, South Dakota. Local reports stated that every house in Vivian sustained some type of hail damage. One of the stones collected broke the U.S. record not only for the largest hailstone (in diameter) but also the heaviest. The stone measured 8 inches (20.3 cm) in diameter, 18.5 inches (47.0 cm) in circumference, and weighed 1.9375 lbs (0.89 kg). It was also reported that the hailstone was originally much larger, but the freezer it was stored in lost power for about five to six hours and the person who collected it kept opening the freezer door to show friends and relatives. Even so, it smashed the previous hailstone record of 7 inches (17.8 cm) diameter, collected in southern Nebraska in June 2003. The world record for the heaviest hailstone belongs to Bangladesh, with a stone collected in April 1986 that weighed 2.25 lb (1.02 kg).

U.S. tornadoes
On July 25th, an EF-1 tornado touched down in Bronx County, New York, marking only the second ever recorded in the Bronx. On July 26th, an EF-3 tornado hit rural Sheridan County, Montana, killing two. This ties as the deadliest tornado in Montana history, and only the fourth EF-3 or stronger tornado ever observed in the state.

La Niña intensifies to moderate strength
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.1°C below average by August 16, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.0°C below average (as of August 8.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 1.0°C below average. SSTs 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. La Niña conditions must be present for several months before this will be officially classified as a La Niña event, but it is highly likely that a full-fledged La Niña event lasting at least seven more months has arrived. We started out the year with a strong El Niño, so it may seem surprising that we have transitioned La Niña so quickly, However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

It is well-known that both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to increase during La Niña events. However, as I discussed in a post in June, since 1995, neutral years (when neither an El Niño or La Niña are present) have had Atlantic hurricane activity equal to La Niña years. The last time we had a strong El Niño event followed by a La Niña event in the same year, in 1998, we had a Atlantic hurricane season 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. I'm thinking this year's season may be similar, though four or more intense hurricanes are a good bet due to the record warm SSTs.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of August, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 will probably end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

July 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in July 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Relatively cool weather occurred this July in the Arctic, compared to 2007, when the record low was set. Ice volume was at a record low for July, though, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. On August 16, the fabled Northwest Passage was just a day or two from melting open, and will probably be open for navigation during most of late August and all of September.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1898 - 1848

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Curious, I keep seeing references to 2005 season - almost like people are expecting something like 2005 again.?.. Everyone does realize that the 2005 season was probably a once in a lifetime season for the Atlantic, right? Broke all kinds of records, some of which were over 100 years old.

We will likely not see anything like that again in our lifetimes and those hoping for such a repeat season are likely setting themselves up for disappointment.

Luckily for those of us in the New Orleans area this season has been subdued because otherwise we'd be dealing with our third tropical system so far this year - Bonnie, TD5 and TD5 redux.

Mike
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Present Your Degree?
.

He has a B.S. degree, that's why he's on my ignore list
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Unless this has the possibility of becoming a Tropical storm I doubt it will be upgraded. It may become a tropical depression but imo the NHC uses Tropical depressions to warn ships or land of a possible tropical storm forming. If a system has little to no possibility to form into a Tropical storm in its lifetime, it will likely not be designated as such. Right now the possibility still exists but it only has a number of hours prob 12-16 to become a depression recognized by the NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting troy1993:
Oh my God i swear if i hear anymore ridiculous unnecessary downcasting I am going to lose it..I hate when people expect every hurricane season to be like 2005. Ever since 2005 everyone thinks that just because we havent had any early-season activity that means the season is over..IT DOES NOT! I repeat IT DOES NOT! We are just beginning to emerge into the heart of the season where things will likely pick up for where it could be a very active late August/September/October. And plus why the heck is everyone so focused on the number of named storms? We could have 20 plus named storms but all of them can recurve out to sea what really matters is how many of them impact land and become dangerous deadly hurricanes(Does Hurricane Andrew ring a bell?). I feel bad for people like Levi32 and Storm W who have consistently and with their allmighty patience have tried to explain to people on this blog and on why they feel we are still in for an active season and yet people ignore this great forecasters who really know there stuff and make inaccurate statements exclaiming Oh no this season is a bust! Wake up people..not every season is going to be a 2005 and if that is where you guys are hoping then you guys are going to be disappointed every single time.


It has been getting quite out of hand hasn't it?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24456
Quoting troy1993:
Oh my God i swear if i hear anymore ridiculous unnecessary downcasting I am going to lose it..I hate when people expect every hurricane season to be like 2005. Ever since 2005 everyone thinks that just because we havent had any early-season activity that means the season is over..IT DOES NOT! I repeat IT DOES NOT! We are just beginning to emerge into the heart of the season where things will likely pick up for where it could be a very active late August/September/October. And plus why the heck is everyone so focused on the number of named storms? We could have 20 plus named storms but all of them can recurve out to sea what really matters is how many of them impact land and become dangerous deadly hurricanes(Does Hurricane Andrew ring a bell?). I feel bad for people like Levi32 and Storm W who have consistently and with their allmighty patience have tried to explain to people on this blog and on why they feel we are still in for an active season and yet people ignore this great forecasters who really know there stuff and make inaccurate statements exclaiming Oh no this season is a bust! Wake up people..not every season is going to be a 2005 and if that is where you guys are hoping then you guys are going to be disappointed every single time.


Yeah Ike
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People are just bored. That is why we have all the downcasting. They all know that all it takes is one major hurricane for everyone to stop the downcasting and start analyzing instead. We will have at least 10 Hurricanes after all is said and done. 4 Major at least with the conditions improving. Hope none of them hit land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
wow two big cold fronts coming to the east coast by tuesday night in the northeast that will make the east coast free from any hurricane for the next week or more.


Present Your Degree?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Ok - I will try firefox - that's what my daughter uses.

I thought maybe I didn't have the right version of Java or something.

Thanks


Firefox will prompt you to get all of the add-ons that youneed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
zzzzzzz
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


i dont see a stall oh and dont go out to play in the bayous tommorow currents could be a tad strong by then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1888. xcool
The 2010 Hurricane Season thus far…


Timeline of the 2010 hurricane season from the first day of the season to Aug 15th.

Here we are on August 15th and so far we have had a hurricane season that started out with one loud bang and then a few little fizzles. Back in June the season got off to a fairly early start with a very impressive early season storm. Alex was the first Atlantic basin storm of this year’s season and was also the first Atlantic basin hurricane in the month of June since Hurricane Allison in 1995. In terms of wind speed Alex’s 105 mph (165 km/h) winds were the strongest recorded in a June hurricane since Alma in 1966. This also means that Alex was a category 2 storm and was just 6 mph (8 km/h) shy of becoming a major hurricane. As for its barometric pressure Alex recorded a low pressure of 947 mbar (27.96 inches) which makes it the most second most intense Atlantic hurricane in the month June. The strongest was Hurricane Audrey in 1957. Hurricane Alex also devastated portions of Mexico and caused just over 1.8 billion dollars in damages. 33 people were killed as the directly by the storm and another 22 were killed indirectly. It is very likely that after 2010 the name Alex will be retired because of the significant impact this storm had on Mexico’s east coast and the Yucatan







Alex shortly after making its second landfall on the Mexican east coast.

Another thing that was interesting about Alex was the size of its wind field and the relation to its top wind speed and low pressure. Before making it into the Gulf of Mexico (Gom) Alex had a fairly tight area of pressure falls. As the storm passed over the Yucatan Peninsula its low pressure center grew very broad while interacting with the added friction of land which is much higher in comparison to the amount of friction a storm experiences while over open water. Due to this fact the pressure was much lower than what you would typically have in a storm with winds that were only 105 mph (165 km/h). In actuality the pressure was low enough that if the wind field had been smaller Alex would have likely been a Cat 3 or stronger at landfall. This is very similar to what we saw with Hurricane Ike from 2008. Ike was a very tight compact storm until it hit Cuba. After passing over Cuba the storm more than doubled its size making its wind field massive and relatively slower than what you would normally expect with a pressure as low as Ike had. An example of a storm that has a very tiny area of rapid pressure falls is Hurricane Charley which had a very tiny yet incredibly intense area of hurricane force winds. Charley also had a significantly lower storm surge than Ike. Ike was only a minimal cat 3 at landfall yet it had a storm surge comparable to a category 5 hurricane and this allowed it to nearly destroy the entire community on Galveston Island, TX.




Above is a cross section of Hurricane Ike's eye and pressure falls. Note how gradual the slope of the pressure fall is and how broad the wind field is. Image courtesy of Chris Collura from sky-chaser.com Clicking this image will take you to Chris's site.




Cross section of a typical hurricane's eye and pressure falls. Note that the winds are much stronger for the same pressure and that the wind field is much smaller. Image courtesy of Chris Collura of sky-chaser.com Clicking this image will take you to Chris's site.

Since Alex the season has been very quiet. All though we have had five tropical cyclones this year only three were able to strength to tropical storm strength and be named. Out of the three named storms (Alex, Bonnie, Colin) that we have had only Alex was able to become a hurricane. The main reasons why we have thus far seen a fairly slow seasons are…

Strong high pressure over the mid Atlantic resulting in a moderately strong Calima.
High wind shear over the Atlantic basin due to the same area of high pressure.
The continual presence of a TUTT low in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM).
A Calima is the result of dust storms over the Sahara Dessert kicking up large amounts of dust that are then carried out over the Atlantic by strong westerly trade winds. This large mass of hot, dry, and dusty air is often referred to as the Saharan Air Layer or SAL for short. If the dust is thick enough it will block enough sunlight to lower the seas surface temperature which will inhibit the development of any tropical cyclone. The SAL is also very dry and thus hampers convection which is also needed to form tropical cyclones. Climatologically it is common to have the SAL eject into the Atlantic around June and July and so it should no longer be a problem going forward in the season.

In contrast to severe thunderstorms and supercells, tropical cyclones require minimal to no wind shear in their environments. In fact the weaker the wind shear is the better. This is because tropical cyclones are fairly weak monsters. They need to have deep convection present on all sides of their low pressure centers in order to sustain and intensify their strength. Too much shear will cause all the convection of the storm to blow off and make the storm lopsided. This was the primary factor that resulted in 2009′s almost non-existent hurricane season. An example of a storm being killed off by strong shear can be seen in the image bellow. Note that the center of Tropical Storm Ana has no convection and thus is unable to build an eye wall or the convection necessary to help deepen its low pressure. You may want to click on the image to to make it larger so that the text on it becomes easier to read.



Ana being killed by the presence of strong easterly wind shear.

A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, or “TUTT low” as it is more commonly known as, are the result of wind and energy from the mid levels ejecting into the the tropics forming an area of low pressure. It is also possible to have one develop from the inverted trough of low pressure that is next to a strong upper level high pressure system. The latter of these two ways in which a TUTT low will form was the case of the most recent TUTT low that has been acting almost as a shield from tropical cyclones for the areas impacted by the gulf oil spill. TUTT lows are usually responsible for large amounts of vertical wind shear which limits the ability for tropical storms to for and survive near them. The can, however, pinch off from their base and move away from the area of low pressure that was their base. When this happens the strong surface lows they have left in their place can and commonly do move on to become tropical cyclones. Furthermore when a TUTT low follows in the wake of a tropical system they tend to aid in the outflow of the system and thus help strengthen it so the precess of a TUTT low can easily be a double edged sword.

Despite what would appear to be a slow season thus far the NHC , UKMO, and CSU still predict this to be an above average season with each source calling for 14 to 20 named storms. In fact the CSU increased the number of named storms they are forecasting from 15 to 18. The reason behind this is that the conditions of a La Nina influenced season have finally come together well over the Atlantic basin. Strong Seas Surface Temperature (SST) are present all across the GoM, Caribbean, and Atlantic waters. The shear is also believed to relax across the entire Atlantic basin and now that we are getting into mid august the prime area for storm formation shifts from the GoM to out over the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde islands. By shifting the focus away from the gulf you largely eliminate the threat of a TUTT low being a factor in the formation of a new storm. The SAL has also moved on and the chances of another strong Calima happening again are much lower as we move away from their prime formation time of June and July.

A slow starting season such as the one we are having right now is rarely an indication of what rest of the season will be like. It is very important to note that although the hurricane season starts in early June the bulk of tropical activity doesn’t typically start until about mid August. Calling out that the 2010 hurricane season is dead and over this early into it would be like saying because there has been minimal tornado activity in February through mid April means that the rest of the tornado season will be non existent. In fact that was the very mentality by many this year when between the month of February through April 22nd there was only one notable tornado event and of course we all know how incredibly active the rest of the tornado season turned out to be. With that said I should point out that their is little to no correlation between how active a tornado season is and how active a hurricane season will be. I was simply using it as an example as to how its much to early to write off this hurricane season. Bellow you will see a graph illustration when peak tropical cyclone activity occurs in the north Atlantic basin.

Currently in the tropics there is little activity going on with one exception being the remnants of tropical depression five. ”Low 5″, as it is referred to now, is moving over the western Florida Panhandle and has peeked the interests of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), so much so that they have decided there is a 30% (moderate) chance of it becoming a tropical cyclone again during the next 48 hours. Low five currently is exhibiting explosive convective development in its right front quadrant out over the Gulf of Mexico and it is in my belief that we will see it once again become a tropical depression once it is out over the open water. Interestingly enough the forecasted track of this system takes it back over the same exact area it passed previously to make a giant 360 circle over the southeastern part of the united states. It is also possible that they system could make it to tropical storm status before making its next landfall over the area around the Mississippi Delta. Tomorrow morning the NHC has tasked the USAF Reserve’s Hurricane Hunters to fly into the system and determine what exactly five will or wont do. Looking bellow you can see the spaghetti plot for five showing the giant c shaped forecast track that will take it right over the same areas it has already passed.


Looking beyond this week I agree with the forecasts that still call for an active season and wont be surprised if much later in this month or in the beginning of September we see the tropics light up like a light bulb with multiple storms. Keep those eyes on the gulf and watch here for updates. I will be chasing any and every hurricane that makes a landfall onto the Gulf and East Coast of the United States.


by http://svrwxchaser.com/


sorry way too much stuff.sorry
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1887. Patrap


Hurricane Preparation 2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1886. Levi32
Hey if we're wrong, we're wrong, it will be another great puzzle to solve, which is what being a meteorologist is all about. However, the danger to the US is very real and there is no guarantee the season won't still live up to the forecasts. Everything is verifying as forecasted except for the burst of storms which has yet to materialize. It still might. The fact that the environmental conditions are verifying means we were on the right track, and there might have been one thing we missed, but it is too early to declare failure.

I'll defend a forecast that I made until it is pointless to do so and has been proven wrong. It isn't pointless yet. Expect me to defend it. Why wouldn't I.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow two big cold fronts coming to the east coast by tuesday night in the northeast that will make the east coast free from any hurricane for the next week or more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting troy1993:
Oh my God i swear if i hear anymore ridiculous unnecessary downcasting I am going to lose it..I hate when people expect every hurricane season to be like 2005. Ever since 2005 everyone thinks that just because we havent had any early-season activity that means the season is over..IT DOES NOT! I repeat IT DOES NOT! We are just beginning to emerge into the heart of the season where things will likely pick up for where it could be a very active late August/September/October. And plus why the heck is everyone so focused on the number of named storms? We could have 20 plus named storms but all of them can recurve out to sea what really matters is how many of them impact land and become dangerous deadly hurricanes(Does Hurricane Andrew ring a bell?). I feel bad for people like Levi32 and Storm W who have consistently and with their allmighty patience have tried to explain to people on this blog and on why they feel we are still in for an active season and yet people ignore this great forecasters who really know there stuff and make inaccurate statements exclaiming Oh no this season is a bust! Wake up people..not every season is going to be a 2005 and if that is where you guys are hoping then you guys are going to be disappointed every single time.


+....+ A Lot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok - I will try firefox - that's what my daughter uses.

I thought maybe I didn't have the right version of Java or something.

Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Better yet..... bet that any professional team in Cleveland will win a world championship in the next 30 years LOL
That might be a good bet too....but I can only speak of the Mets.....and that's all folks!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
MSLP is also verifying as forecasted in a pattern favorable for a lot of action in the Atlantic.

MSLP anomalies and means for the last 30 days:


In this debate you've been having tonight, I have agreed with you on everything. You have all of the evidence and proof to back youself up. The other guys has had barely anything to back himself up tonight. It's sad that if Storm were making this debate, everyone would listen to him, and not argue. Great job.
Member Since: May 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 352
thanks for the suggestions of shutting down, etc. I've done that, after cleaning all temp files etc

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:


IE8


I downloaded Mozilla (firefox) and it works a lot better for me than IE8 did... You'll have increased speed and the blog does not stretch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Alright guys, put this into perspective:

* We have a pattern change coming later this week...One that will make the ULL's and Dry Air go Bye-Bye. This happens just as that wave off Africa starts to develop.


Bingo. 170 or so hrs from now there will likely be a wave that will intesify into a storm and likely curve back into the sea. At least that is what several models forecast.

But for all those "down" and "hyper" casters...breathe..its ok. Drink some water. Breathe again. Because the next system pops out soon after and it is so far keeping true to what the models were forcasting since Friday. Why not be a good neighbor and enourage those in the coastal areas to have a prepardness plan?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1877. FLdewey
More like the Braves... :-o
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting will45:
calm down Taz xcool said that he was sorry



i re move the commet i made pls re move what you this said
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115343
1875. Patrap
The developers here will always state that they design the functionality with the FireFox Browser in Mind.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1874. will45
Quoting xcool:
will45 .thank


welcome xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bigguy675:
If you feel that strong about it, why not fly to Vegas and put $1,000 down on the New York Mets winning the World Series.


Better yet..... bet that any professional team in Cleveland will win a world championship in the next 30 years LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh my God i swear if i hear anymore ridiculous unnecessary downcasting I am going to lose it..I hate when people expect every hurricane season to be like 2005. Ever since 2005 everyone thinks that just because we havent had any early-season activity that means the season is over..IT DOES NOT! I repeat IT DOES NOT! We are just beginning to emerge into the heart of the season where things will likely pick up for where it could be a very active late August/September/October. And plus why the heck is everyone so focused on the number of named storms? We could have 20 plus named storms but all of them can recurve out to sea what really matters is how many of them impact land and become dangerous deadly hurricanes(Does Hurricane Andrew ring a bell?). I feel bad for people like Levi32 and Storm W who have consistently and with their allmighty patience have tried to explain to people on this blog and on why they feel we are still in for an active season and yet people ignore this great forecasters who really know there stuff and make inaccurate statements exclaiming Oh no this season is a bust! Wake up people..not every season is going to be a 2005 and if that is where you guys are hoping then you guys are going to be disappointed every single time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1871. xcool
will45 .thank
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1870. IKE
Quoting zoomiami:
Some computer help please - my computer catches and barely moves on a Wuderground radar loop - like the ones that Pat posts, but not on anything else.

I've just spent a bunch of time cleaning up junk - and its better but still very slow when paging up or down the blog.

Any ideas or suggestions?


If you shut it down and start over your memory should clear out. I've had to do it before too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Some computer help please - my computer catches and barely moves on a Wuderground radar loop - like the ones that Pat posts, but not on anything else.

I've just spent a bunch of time cleaning up junk - and its better but still very slow when paging up or down the blog.

Any ideas or suggestions?


First thing run disk clean and then defrag.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1868. will45
calm down Taz xcool said that he was sorry
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


zoo, are you using IE8 or Mozilla or Chrome?


IE8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting deautschlandfutbol:
Where is storm? This season is done. Its cooked. Everything that was gonna happen didn't happen. Mjo nada nao nada lots of shear lots of sal. 2010 nada.
If you feel that strong about it, why not fly to Vegas and put $1,000 down on the New York Mets winning the World Series.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Agreed.

And frankly, I think it would be fascinating if this season were a bust. Because then we would be forced to look for answers.


Since I think we don't know nearly as much as we think we know I would like us to explore this. I think that forecasting the weather out more than a couple of days is just guesswork for the most part right now we can learn when we do it wrong. Boy, this year so far has been getting it wrong.
Somebody help me out on what purpose is served by guessing how many storms are going to happen in a year? What is important is after they blow up accurately telling folks where they are going and how strong they will be. In that regard we have failed this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Some computer help please - my computer catches and barely moves on a Wuderground radar loop - like the ones that Pat posts, but not on anything else.

I've just spent a bunch of time cleaning up junk - and its better but still very slow when paging up or down the blog.

Any ideas or suggestions?


zoo, are you using IE8 or Mozilla or Chrome?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1863. xcool
Tazmanian 1iknow.i told him sorry
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115343
1861. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


if the numbers are lower than expected
it does not mean to expect less action
in the basin everything from here on out
even if lower than expected
could become all cat 3's the fuel is there
for it to happen
if we end up with 12 to 14 as a total i still think it will be a bad year if those 12 to 14 half of them are landfalling majors on populated areas don't be fooled by numbers
Right on......Statistics are only numbers that have no control over actual events.jmo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1860. Patrap
Quoting zoomiami:
Some computer help please - my computer catches and barely moves on a Wuderground radar loop - like the ones that Pat posts, but not on anything else.

I've just spent a bunch of time cleaning up junk - and its better but still very slow when paging up or down the blog.

Any ideas or suggestions?


Shutdown windows..and your system , and re-start is always a good starting point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1859. xcool
IKE .oh my bad .sorry :0
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1858. Levi32
MSLP is also verifying as forecasted in a pattern favorable for a lot of action in the Atlantic.

MSLP anomalies and means for the last 30 days:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some computer help please - my computer catches and barely moves on a Wuderground radar loop - like the ones that Pat posts, but not on anything else.

I've just spent a bunch of time cleaning up junk - and its better but still very slow when paging up or down the blog.

Any ideas or suggestions?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1856. IKE
Quoting xcool:
IKE back offPlease do not attacks me


Attack you? I'm talking about Joe Bastardi. How is that attacking you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1855. xcool


12Z NAEFS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Alright guys, put this into perspective:

* We have a pattern change coming later this week...One that will make the ULL's and Dry Air go Bye-Bye. This happens just as that wave off Africa starts to develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1853. gator23
Quoting hydrus:
In 1990, There were (2) hurricanes in August, (1) in September and (4) in October.

yes and 2004 which was bad for Florida D storm formed August 13. That was a bad season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
a bit of an underachiever

Seems he maybe self diagnosing sub-consciously.


LOL, a Freudian slip?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry guys I'm just trying to wake up the hurricane gods. I know its not aug 21st yet but come on season get started. Since levi and storm are saying no busts I will have to go with them for now but if it don't get going soon then well its done.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1849. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
its august 16 2010 we only got 3 names storm only one hurricane mean will will not get 18 names storm this year no way this is going to happern more like 10 names storm this year..


if the numbers are lower than expected
it does not mean to expect less action
in the basin everything from here on out
even if lower than expected
could become all cat 3's the fuel is there
for it to happen
if we end up with 12 to 14 as a total i still think it will be a bad year if those 12 to 14 half of them are landfalling majors on populated areas don't be fooled by numbers
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54823

Viewing: 1898 - 1848

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
52 °F
Light Rain Mist