ex-TD 5 regenerating; globe has 2nd or 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010

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The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system has enough spin to regenerate into a tropical depression later today or early Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense but disorganized thunderstorms lies over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity is intensifying and growing more organized. A center of circulation is becoming more defined about 60 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida. Strong upper-level winds out of the northeast are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over ex-TD 5, and this shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the northern side of the center of circulation. Thus, I expect that heavy thunderstorms will be slow to develop over land today. By Tuesday, ex-TD 5 should be able to intensify into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds, and heavy rains should spread across the entire Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. All of the models bring ex-TD 5 back ashore over Louisiana on Tuesday, and it is unlikely the storm will get sustained winds stronger than 50 mph. The GFDL model predicts ex-TD 5 will stay below tropical storm strength, while the HWRF predicts a 45-mph tropical storm at landfall on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters will fly into ex-TD 5 this afternoon to see if it has regenerated into a tropical depression. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models continue to predict a major pattern shift in the global atmospheric circulation late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and start to the Cape Verdes hurricane season. Most of the models predict a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras late this week.

Smoke clears from Moscow
Moderate westerly winds over the past few hours have cleared Moscow's air, bringing an end to a 42-hour period where smoke from persistent wildfires blanketed the city. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today, which is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls continued very hot temperatures and light and variable winds through Wednesday, as Russia's record heat wave continues. However, on Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure is expected to move through European Russia, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for July, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Second or fifth warmest July on record for the globe
July 2010 was the second warmest July on record, behind 1998, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). July was the first month since February that was not the warmest on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2010 the fifth warmest July on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - July, as the warmest such period on record. July 2010 global ocean temperatures were the fifth warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in July, according to University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), and the warmeest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems (RSS).

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from July 2010.

Russia, Finland, and Qatar set all time heat records
Three nations--Russia, Finland, and Qatar--recorded their hottest temperatures in history during July 2010. No nation set a coldest temperature of all time record.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old recrod for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) The source for the previous all-time records listed here is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt.

Seventeenth warmest July on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 17th warmest July in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to July, was the 27th warmest such period on record. Two states, Delaware and Rhode Island, had their warmest July on record. Fourteen other states had a top-ten warmest July on record, including nearly every state on the Atlantic East Coast. No state recorded a top-ten coldest July.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., July 2010 ranked as the 36th wettest July in the 116-year record. Four states--Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska--had a top ten wettest July on record. Only Louisiana had a top-ten driest July on record.


Figure 3. The record-setting hailstone of July 23, 2010, that fell on Vivian, South Dakota. Image credit: National Weather Service, South Dakota.

Record hailstone falls in South Dakota
A severe storm on July 23rd dropped hundreds of massive hailstones on the small town of Vivian, South Dakota. Local reports stated that every house in Vivian sustained some type of hail damage. One of the stones collected broke the U.S. record not only for the largest hailstone (in diameter) but also the heaviest. The stone measured 8 inches (20.3 cm) in diameter, 18.5 inches (47.0 cm) in circumference, and weighed 1.9375 lbs (0.89 kg). It was also reported that the hailstone was originally much larger, but the freezer it was stored in lost power for about five to six hours and the person who collected it kept opening the freezer door to show friends and relatives. Even so, it smashed the previous hailstone record of 7 inches (17.8 cm) diameter, collected in southern Nebraska in June 2003. The world record for the heaviest hailstone belongs to Bangladesh, with a stone collected in April 1986 that weighed 2.25 lb (1.02 kg).

U.S. tornadoes
On July 25th, an EF-1 tornado touched down in Bronx County, New York, marking only the second ever recorded in the Bronx. On July 26th, an EF-3 tornado hit rural Sheridan County, Montana, killing two. This ties as the deadliest tornado in Montana history, and only the fourth EF-3 or stronger tornado ever observed in the state.

La Niña intensifies to moderate strength
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.1°C below average by August 16, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.0°C below average (as of August 8.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 1.0°C below average. SSTs 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. La Niña conditions must be present for several months before this will be officially classified as a La Niña event, but it is highly likely that a full-fledged La Niña event lasting at least seven more months has arrived. We started out the year with a strong El Niño, so it may seem surprising that we have transitioned La Niña so quickly, However, historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

It is well-known that both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to increase during La Niña events. However, as I discussed in a post in June, since 1995, neutral years (when neither an El Niño or La Niña are present) have had Atlantic hurricane activity equal to La Niña years. The last time we had a strong El Niño event followed by a La Niña event in the same year, in 1998, we had a Atlantic hurricane season 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. I'm thinking this year's season may be similar, though four or more intense hurricanes are a good bet due to the record warm SSTs.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of August, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 will probably end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

July 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in July 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Relatively cool weather occurred this July in the Arctic, compared to 2007, when the record low was set. Ice volume was at a record low for July, though, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. On August 16, the fabled Northwest Passage was just a day or two from melting open, and will probably be open for navigation during most of late August and all of September.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tkeith:
My opinion may not be very good, but it will be honest. I believe it's gonna do about the same as it did last time through here. JMO...


Detailed outlook on TD 5 from last night. Will update this around 9 PM EDT or sooner.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The NAO swings back positive when PGI30L would be in the central or western Atlantic.

We'll have to see what happens, but I think there's a strong chance that this goes out to sea.


interesting to note that the ECMWF yesterday had a negative NAO throughout the rest of the month. Can you give me proof of what you are saying. The pattern indicated in that map i just showed you would indicate a negative NAO if I am correct.

I'm not disagreeing that this will probably go out to sea but it is still far out and this 8-14 day temperature outlook gives a good idea of what the synoptic pattern would be 8-14 days from now and it shows no sign of a trough
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ULL's this season have been causing most of the deaths of our disturbances/storms.

I know Im going to sound like every other person on here for the past two months, but once they go away things could get active.
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how many times have the NHC gone to a high chance of development and it didnt happen?

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7829
Just look at the NEW convection blowing up for the first time on the northern side of the LLC.....<


Yah....we just got a "taste" of that convention here at BPT - 20G45kt out of the gust front at the scareport. Pro'ly more than we'll ever see out of the impending "TD" 5 (or whatEVER it was/is/will be called!!)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Exactly. 3 storms that come to mind that have had similar model support was Bill, Bertha and Dean.

Look at it this way folks. Alex became a 947 mb Hurricane in June. TD2 ran out of time. Bonnie had a massive ULL follow it around, Colin ran into the TUTT but still became a pretty healthy 60 mph system. TD5 also had a ULL plague it, and if it regenerates tomorrow and becomes Danielle people will be singing a different tune (not saying it will). The storms this season have been plagued by timing. True, the 24 named storms NOAA predicted was pretty extreme but the ECMWF has come out and said 13 storms after September 1st. If we get 1 more storm this month that would put us at 4. Add 13 to that, that's 17 systems right there and if we don't and the models are some how even though its the climatological time, have been showing it for days, and we have a wave with a very strong MLC emerging off the coast, we'll have 16 in the end, just like 2008. If the ECMWF's forecast is off by a storm or two, we'll have 14 or 15 in that case, guess what two infamous seasons had 15 named storms? 2004 and 2007.

+1
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5694
am thinking we are still feeling EL Nino
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1241. scott39
The first threat of a Major hurricane to the States will have most peoples anxiety and frustration melting away. Oh wait shouldnt it be the other way around? LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And they're killing off the season. What's happened is that everyone patience has snapped. We have strong model support for a very potent system late this week into next week. The wave train is about to begin.


You are correct. Patience has run out, especially when we have something right here at home that refuses to develop. I, personally, am tired of the models, and watching these pathetic attempts at storms shudder over the Atlantic and never meet expectations. Plus, it takes a long time for these storms to cross...it is literally exhausting coming here and blogging about them. I miss the days when I didn't know anything about what was happening in the tropics until it was close to home. I am now salivating over what the GFS spins up at 324 hours. Sad, really.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Weekly MJO Update




Incoherent? LOL
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OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010


.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES NEAR 29N86W...1009 MB WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND THEN INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TUE. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD W ALONG 28N WED AND PREVAIL
THROUGH SAT.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


And they're killing off the season. What's happened is that everyone patience has snapped. We have strong model support for a very potent system late this week into next week. The wave train is about to begin.


Not really seeing any support for a defined wave train, but we may squeeze 2-3 more storms out of August.
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Facts are facts cybrteddy if it's not one thing that kills of the system it's another.The season was basially hyped to be something that it's not turning out to be(thank god).People are putting way to much faith into alex,and this current wave to save the season.other than alex the season has been full of week storms that have fallen apart.I was surprised the forecast stayed the same.I gussing well see 14-15 named storms.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17149
1234. TGTTX
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The wave ahead of PGI30L did its job well.


That's a really cool pic...Would be good to show from just yesterday morning...what a difference.
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Quoting calder:


not even nearly to this extent


Exactly. 3 storms that come to mind that have had similar model support was Bill, Bertha and Dean.

Look at it this way folks. Alex became a 947 mb Hurricane in June. TD2 ran out of time. Bonnie had a massive ULL follow it around, Colin ran into the TUTT but still became a pretty healthy 60 mph system. TD5 also had a ULL plague it, and if it regenerates tomorrow and becomes Danielle people will be singing a different tune (not saying it will). The storms this season have been plagued by timing. True, the 24 named storms NOAA predicted was pretty extreme but the ECMWF has come out and said 13 storms after September 1st. If we get 1 more storm this month that would put us at 4. Add 13 to that, that's 17 systems right there and if we don't and the models are some how even though its the climatological time, have been showing it for days, and we have a wave with a very strong MLC emerging off the coast, we'll have 16 in the end, just like 2008. If the ECMWF's forecast is off by a storm or two, we'll have 14 or 15 in that case, guess what two infamous seasons had 15 named storms? 2004 and 2007.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
1232. calder
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Im not killing off the season, but I am seeing 2010 as the boy who cried wolf season

how many times have we had good model support for something and then it either doesn't develop or becomes a weak system?


other than Alex, look at all the other systems that have fallen way short of expectations

TD 2, was expected to be Bonnie, really should have never been TD 2 most likely

Bonnie, while giving a decent jolt to S Florida, could never take advantage of the hot Gulf Waters.

Colin, had strong support from models that mostly brought him to a hurricane, he never made it higher than a 60mph TS and that reading was probably generous

TD 5, 2-3 days over the warm Gulf Waters and was expected to at least be a moderate TS, never got past the TD stage and now after thoughts of regeneration and making TS status, will likely fall short again


Until something shows some steady indications of organization, it is hard to believe the models


The question you have to ask yourself is whose expectations? Remember we are not even halfway through the season so you can't possibly speculate on it's final activity. You can do that come December 31st, we have no idea what the tropics will do, that's the beauty of tracking storms.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Im not killing off the season, but I am seeing 2010 as the boy who cried wolf season

how many times have we had good model support for something and then it either doesn't develop or becomes a weak system?


other than Alex, look at all the other systems that have fallen way short of expectations

TD 2, was expected to be Bonnie, really should have never been TD 2 most likely

Bonnie, while giving a decent jolt to S Florida, could never take advantage of the hot Gulf Waters.

Colin, had strong support from models that mostly brought him to a hurricane, he never made it higher than a 60mph TS and that reading was probably generous

TD 5, 2-3 days over the warm Gulf Waters and was expected to at least be a moderate TS, never got past the TD stage and now after thoughts of regeneration and making TS status, will likely fall short again


Until something shows some steady indications of organization, it is hard to believe the models


It is an interesting point you have brought up, we have been consistently seeing ULLs (upper-level lows) disrupting the tropical cyclones that do form. Only Alex was "lucky."

TD 2: An ULL in the Gulf of Mexico produced a surface trough, and TD 2 struggled to develop along the surface trough (struggled to become the dominant center of convergence along the trough).

TS Bonnie: Killed by upper-level convergence northeast of an ULL

TS Colin: Killed by dry air from ULL to its west.

TD Five: Killed by dry air and lack of upper divergence beneath ULL

However, if we do stop seeing cut-off ULLs, all heck will break loose in the Atlantic.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


And they're killing off the season. What's happened is that everyone patience has snapped. We have strong model support for a very potent system late this week into next week. The wave train is about to begin.

My patience hasn't snapped, but I'm gonna have a headache if something doesn't regenerate, pop up, or develop by the 25th.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5694
Quoting Twinkster:



Interesting. wouldn't that signify strong ridging in NE which would cause a trough to either lift out faster or not be able to dip as far south. If that is the case our future CV system might not recurve


The NAO swings back positive when PGI30L would be in the central or western Atlantic.

We'll have to see what happens, but I think there's a strong chance that this goes out to sea.
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1228. tkeith
Quoting nola70119:
I wouldn't give up entirely on TD5 or whatever it is because the NHC failed to classify it. Or to announce the season over-- that would be foolish, even childish. But I do think the long term predictions are being hyped up way too much, and they are creating unreasonable expectations.
I wouldn't doubt we'll lots of parked cars on the neutral ground by mornin...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
I remember there was a wave in 2007 I t never came off Africa but the NHC put an orange circle on it and it had all the model support but it never developed I wouldn't get excited until it's over water and the NHC says 50%
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Quoting angiest:


I don't think you have to worry about xTD5 hitting the coastline in Baton Rouge. :)


LMAO...you got THAT right!
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Weekly MJO Update


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Quoting Patrap:


Houston.Gal was 100F with a 122F HEat Index before the squall hit
Yes I tried to take my kids to the park after lunch here in Spring TX (just north of Houston), and my kids couldn't even get on the equipment. So I took them to get Ice Cream instead. They enjoyed that and the storm that blew threw so much more. Also there was a good 40 mph wind gust that blew threw here just before the storm came.
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We have seen the forecast models developing decent storms all season long, yet other than Alex, we have had 4 weak systems
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7829
I wouldn't give up entirely on TD5 or whatever it is because the NHC failed to classify it. Or to announce the season over-- that would be foolish, even childish. But I do think the long term predictions are being hyped up way too much, and they are creating unreasonable expectations.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I never said it would become a hurricane in the GOM. I did say that it could become a minimal hurricane, but followed that by saying I expected a minimal to moderate TS. I was even wrong with that, though. It's not like I have some ego thing about it and I know you didn't point me out, but you said "the same people" which implies that I'm part of that group.


Wasn't referring to you at all.
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1220. tkeith
Quoting nolacane2009:
In anyone's honest opinion what does it look like EX-TD5 will do?
My opinion may not be very good, but it will be honest. I believe it's gonna do about the same as it did last time through here. JMO...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
Quoting tornadolarkin:
Oh man......



Interesting. wouldn't that signify strong ridging in NE which would cause a trough to either lift out faster or not be able to dip as far south. If that is the case our future CV system might not recurve

here is the image from the quote
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1218. scott39
Models more than 5 days out with the track of a TC, Is like playing at the Willy Wonka Model factory.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
The wave ahead of PGI30L did its job well.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


We have not we've had two models at best developing a system and they always kept it weak like what it became with the exception of like one model run. Every run for the past 3 days have shown on most of those runs a strong TS at least. Even the slowest of seasons have a big major CV hurricane, shall I bring up Bill, Helene, Gordon, and countless other storms?


Agree with you. Since we have been in the warm AMO phase (which enhances CV storm activity), you can have some impressive CV hurricanes, even if Mr. El Nino is there.
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1214. calder
Quoting Hurricanes101:


but we have had strong model support before this season and then nothing happens


not even nearly to this extent
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The same people that were screaming that EX-TD5 would become a hurricane in the Gulf are screaming RIP.

Classic


And they're killing off the season. What's happened is that everyone patience has snapped. We have strong model support for a very potent system late this week into next week. The wave train is about to begin.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Those killing off the season, really need not to ignore post 1188. You'll get your major hurricane soon enough.


Im not killing off the season, but I am seeing 2010 as the boy who cried wolf season

how many times have we had good model support for something and then it either doesn't develop or becomes a weak system?


other than Alex, look at all the other systems that have fallen way short of expectations

TD 2, was expected to be Bonnie, really should have never been TD 2 most likely

Bonnie, while giving a decent jolt to S Florida, could never take advantage of the hot Gulf Waters.

Colin, had strong support from models that mostly brought him to a hurricane, he never made it higher than a 60mph TS and that reading was probably generous

TD 5, 2-3 days over the warm Gulf Waters and was expected to at least be a moderate TS, never got past the TD stage and now after thoughts of regeneration and making TS status, will likely fall short again


Until something shows some steady indications of organization, it is hard to believe the models
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7829
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The same people that were screaming that EX-TD5 would become a hurricane in the Gulf are screaming RIP.

Classic


I never said it would become a hurricane in the GOM. I did say that it could become a minimal hurricane, but followed that by saying I expected a minimal to moderate TS. I was even wrong with that, though. It's not like I have some ego thing about it and I know you didn't point me out, but you said "the same people" which implies that I'm part of that group.
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In anyone's honest opinion what does it look like EX-TD5 will do?
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PGI30L has a nice area of 850 vort associated with it.
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1206. scott39
What do wind shear conditions look like for the next 12 hours ahead of L-5.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
Quoting Hurricanes101:


but we have had strong model support before this season and then nothing happens


We have not we've had two models at best developing a system and they always kept it weak like what it became with the exception of like one model run. Every run for the past 3 days have shown on most of those runs a strong TS at least. Even the slowest of seasons have a big major CV hurricane, shall I bring up Bill, Helene, Gordon, and countless other storms?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
1204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54623
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Indeed. PGI30L looks pretty good.



Yeah, I noticed that too. It is one of the nicest wave we've had come off of Africa since 92L in June.
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The same people that were screaming that EX-TD5 would become a hurricane in the Gulf are screaming RIP.

Classic
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1201. angiest
Quoting tkeith:
If you're in Katy, you're about to get wet I think...


I'm in the med center at the moment.
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We had ridiculously heavy rain in Fort Myers. Several cars got stuck in deep water by my house.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
In that run it shows the system further south.Stormchaser2007 in the pre forecast we were suppose to have at least 8 named storms by now.in which 3 would be majors.That has not come to pass right now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17149

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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