Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not surprising. In 2005 they didn't have a La Nina which undoubtedly is helping to focus the upward motion here. We also have record warm SSTs...2005 didn't have that...though they were close.

Right, which begs the question why is the season not more active. There has to be something else. Some global connection.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


looking at the loop I do not see any sort of turning with the wave at all

Nope...no curvature that I can see.



The 12z GFS also continues to suggest that upper level conditions be unfavorable for cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Quoting angiest:


Some amount of physics would have to be required. Ideally, a fair amount of geology/geophysics as well.

Hurricanes are heat engines. I would guess there's a lot of physics in those classes... fluid flow, heat, energy, work, kinematics, etc.

Quoting StormW:


What I'm expecting is, a negative NAO setup in relation to this article of what could happen:

Forecasting U.S. Hurricanes 6 Months in Advance

Excerpt:

The relationship between October-January NAO and hurricane tracks is more complex.
A weak fall/winter NAO is associated with weaker middle latitude weather systems (and thus less
precipitation) over North America and Europe. The relatively dry fall/winter season continues
into spring and the dry conditions subsequently lead to a tendency for greater middle tropospheric ridging during the summer and fall. Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North
Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower
pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east,
is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States
thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts. Support for
this hypothesis comes from the positive correlation between monthly precipitation totals from
January through May at stations in a region extending from Ohio to Massachusetts and fall/winter
NAO values. In other words, weak fall/winter NAO conditions lead to less precipitation, more
ridging, less recurvature, and a higher probability of landfall.

Thanks, Do you expect the mass to be taken off guard this season with the possibility of multiple TCs at once, and Major land falling hurricanes? I told my friends and family to prepare for a really busy season and they dont expect it to happen! What concerns me the most is, the bulk of them are going to happen in a short amount of time. People heard the starting gun back on June 1st for a possible hyperactive season and they dont understand climatology and peaks Ect.. Ect.. Oh well maybe when they see that big major Hurricane heading this way they will believe!

YESTERDAY's 18Z GFS NAO:

td5 COME BACK 3 times

I think my problem is trying to apply half the stuff i learn in college related to math. If I can begin to correlated with weather, i bet I can get a better understanding of how to apply math.

Any chance of those Orlando storms in two hours making there way North (Deltona)?

Quoting Drakoen:


Right, which begs the question why is the season not more active. There has to be something else. Some global connection.

I really don't know why 2005 was so active, I mean it didn't have what we would call "perfect" conditions. That year there was an strong easterly QBO, plenty of SAL in the Atlantic, Neutral/weak El Nino, not too much upward motion in the basin. Like you said, some sort of global connection that we're unaware of.

Quoting angiest:
YESTERDAY's 18Z GFS NAO:

Which is why it turns it out to sea.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Which is why it turns it out to sea.

Yes, I am curious as to if it will follow Euro's reversal on the NAO forecast.

Quoting Drakoen:


Right, which begs the question why is the season not more active. There has to be something else. Some global connection.

Go to page 13 comment 616

10N, 30W looking interesting.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
2005 didn't have a well-defined PDO signature like this year's either...that's also helping focusing the upward motion here:

August 16, 2005:



August 16, 2010:

As you can see, most of the cooling in the Equatorial Pacific is centered around the Central Pacific. Why won't they just name this a La Nina Mokiki(or at least a hybrid) and get it over with. It appears this is the exact opposite to last years El Nino Mokiki hybrid.

Quoting xcool:
td5 COME BACK 3 times

Xcool The sequels are becoming less entertaining! LOL

Pretty impressive vort max at the 850mb level associated with PGI31L:

Quoting StormW:


Yes...it has a tendency to do what we are seeing in La Nina years, and more of tendency to follow that 30-60 day pattern around the globe in neutral years. And, correct on the MJO wanting to stay in our basing. Next item...how many ULL'S do you notice on water vapor today in the Atlantic? Also, run the shear map loop under the GFS...how many upper lows do you see, and how many upper level anticyclones?

LINK

Well here comes my weakness...analyzing maps...but looking at the 850mb to 200mb wind shear it appears that there is one Anticyclone near the Eastern Atlantic Near Africa and a TUTT near Puerto Rico...Am i right?

Quoting Drakoen:


Right, which begs the question why is the season not more active. There has to be something else. Some global connection.

Could the extent of high SSTs have some connection? A lack of focus, perhaps?

Quoting angiest:


Yes, I am curious as to if it will follow Euro's reversal on the NAO forecast.

That would be interesting,could a possible track like the "A" storm of 1992,or the "I" storm of 2008 happen.I hope not.Those were two devestating monster.

Quoting StormW:


That's one thing...both the American land mass, and the ENTIRE Atlantic being warm is distorting the upward motion focus in the MDR.

That's what I was thinking...but what do I know? "I am but an egg" LOL

How are you Storm?

Quoting washingtonian115:
That would be interesting,could a possible track like the "A" storm of 1992,or the "I" storm of 2008 happen.I hope not.Those were two devestating monster.

Or?

Quoting StormW:


Drak, I had a thought on this yesterday...I know CSU doesn't use it anymore, but I still believe the QBO has some play in it. The current info shows the 30mb winds shifting to a westerly phase, and the 50mb winds going to a stronger easterly phase. I was looking at some things yesterday, and I think not only that, but it ties in with the solar max-min, La Nina, El Nino and how strong, and how they all phase each year. I think the state of the QBO is why the TUTT has been hanging on so long. I know 2005 had a strong easterly QBO, and that is supposed to reduce things, however in the research that I have gotten accomplished, the QBO only affects the region from 15N, south to 15S. Most of the activity in 2005 and this year have been at 15N or above.

Maybe. I'd be interested in the research. Could you by any chance email me some of your findings?

Quoting StormW:


Yes...and the shear forecast earlier was calling for more upper level anticyclones, and no ULL's, with the TUTT being displaced.

With the premise of a negative NAO, I would imagine shear will be even less.

Towards the end of that shear run it looks like the Upper pattern over North America becomes more Meridional with more amplified troughs and ridges

Quoting btwntx08:
..

You know what would be a good avatar for you since it affected you...Hurricane Alex. Here's one of the pictures I saved from it:



Here's another one, but personally I like the first one better:

Quoting Drakoen:


Right, which begs the question why is the season not more active. There has to be something else. Some global connection.

I was surprised to learn a few years back that even as an important a concept as the AMO was only identified in 2001.

If seasonal activity is a function of not just AMO, La Nina / El Nino, NAO, MJO, and SAL / dry air, but also a function of currently-unknown factors X, Y, Z, etc., plus chance, then until we identify X, Y, etc. we may continue to see more years like 2005 (and 2006) where the actual activity varies widely from the original predictions.

scott39 .td5 GOING WAYY

Quoting Floodman:


Could the extent of high SSTs have some connection? A lack of focus, perhaps?

Doc mentioned in a previous blog that the heat (rising air) over Russia may be a contributing factor.

Quoting Thaale:

I was surprised to learn a few years back that even as an important a concept as the AMO was only identified in 2001.

If seasonal activity is a function of not just AMO, La Nina / El Nino, NAO, MJO, and SAL / dry air, but also a function of currently-unknown factors X, Y, Z, etc., plus chance, then until we identify X, Y, etc. we may continue to see more years like 2005 (and 2006) where the actual activity varies widely from the original predictions.

I'm convinced the first few months of this season will ultimately teach us something.

Quoting RuBRNded:


Doc mentioned in a previous blog that the heat (rising air) over Russia may be a contributing factor.

and as mentioned in today's blog, should be the last day of the heat wave.

I think the 1950 hurricane season may resemble ours not in the number of named storms, but in the intensity of the storms we may see this year.

GFS runs in an hour. Everyone hold their breadth!

Quoting StormW:


That's one thing...both the American land mass, and the ENTIRE Atlantic being warm is distorting the upward motion focus in the MDR.

I disagree. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for July showed that the majority of Texas was colder than normal and also up into the northern Plains region. In 2005, more of the continent was warmer.

Quoting StormW:


Good Flood, you?

Just explaining to folks of what I'm seeing as to why I think we will still ramp up.

I hear you...so how's it working?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think the 1950 hurricane season may resemble ours not in the number of named storms, but in the intensity of the storms we may see this year.

One of the storm's name was "Item" and "Dog".

Quoting clwstmchasr:
GFS runs in an hour. Everyone hold their breadth!

No, it runs in 15 minutes. :)

Quoting Capeskies:

One of the storm's name was "Item" and "Dog".

Well that was the first year that names were implemented, so not much creativity went into it.