The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2010

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A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.


Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.

Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".

Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pottery:

Quiet as na Tomb!
But there is a knocking on the Crypt-door...



lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Affected Areas (So far)
Alex - Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Extreme South Texas
Bonnie - Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, South Florida
Colin - Bermuda


Louisiana was also affected by Bonnie and TD5 (twice with the latter).
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Quoting pottery:

Quiet as na Tomb!
But there is a knocking on the Crypt-door...


Well, we are coming to the end of the second week of the two week period that I said would be quiet before activity picked up. Instability levels are rising and from Sunday this week I believe we will see a marked uptick in the tropics.



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Quoting MechEngMet:
Good evening all. I'm still enjoying the calm before the storms. If you haven't done so already I'd recommend you go get your supplies ASAP. ...and plan any evacuations you may need.

I get a kick out of preparing fully, then not needing to do anything. All that generator gas goes into the cars, and the wife and kids get a holiday bump from the saved-up travel cash. The leftover food stocks, we eat of course. Then around April we start stocking up for another season.

Someone posted an Hebert-box graphic earlier today, with certain shower curtain inlays. I was at work and couldn't log-on to comment about it then. So, if I may be permitted to comment about it now... ROFLMAO!!! Thanks I needed that good laugh at work.

Yelp you are so right.... I just filled up my truck again from what could have been Bonnie(but was not)and then what was not Danielle too..... LMAO
But atleast all I will have to do is buy more "Gas" everything else I still have for now....

Taco :o)
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1335. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Colin didn't make landfall though.


That's why I added the: ''in some way'' XD

Maybe some rain and waves reached Bermuda?
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1334. pottery
Quoting MechEngMet:


LOL. Yes. That actually happens more often than most people would imagine. Please notice many mets have a slight bald spot right where they often feel the need to scratch...

LOL to that!
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, as of now every system has, in some way, affected land.

Colin didn't make landfall though.
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Quoting pottery:

I am pretty sure that the people who are applying the available Data into the Model Systems are scratching their heads too...


LOL. Yes. That actually happens more often than most people would imagine. Please notice many mets have a slight bald spot right where they often feel the need to scratch...
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks. What's the story tonight ?

Still quiet ??


#1302
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1328. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks. What's the story tonight ?

Still quiet ??

Quiet as a Tomb!
But there is a knocking on the Crypt-door...
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Quoting aquak9:


great comeback!! :)

thnx
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1326. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Affected Areas (So far)
Alex - Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Extreme South Texas
Bonnie - Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, South Florida
Colin - Bermuda


Yeah, as of now every system has, in some way, affected land.
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Quoting hydrus:
We are getting pounded with heavy rain here Pott. Did you push some of that heavy stuff our way?;)
Sounds like you are getting seriously "pouched". Be safe.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2010
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

Honest I am sick of hearing about "reliable computer models", in my opinion this wave has a good shot to develop!


im with you on this one. Model this and model that. Every wave has a decent shot to develope given the right conditions. The models are just our version of an educated guess. Mother nature will ultimatly do whatever she wants!
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Good evening folks. What's the story tonight ?

Still quiet ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening all. I'm still enjoying the calm before the storms. If you haven't done so already I'd recommend you go get your supplies ASAP. ...and plan any evacuations you may need.

I get a kick out of preparing fully, then not needing to do anything. All that generator gas goes into the cars, and the wife and kids get a holiday bump from the saved-up travel cash. The leftover food stocks, we eat of course. Then around April we start stocking up for another season.

Someone posted an Hebert-box graphic earlier today, with certain shower curtain inlays. I was at work and couldn't log-on to comment about it then. So, if I may be permitted to comment about it now... ROFLMAO!!! Thanks I needed that good laugh at work.

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Quoting JLPR2:


You're right!

Well then, half, just like you said 2010 could be.

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Affected Areas (So far)
Alex - Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Extreme South Texas
Bonnie - Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, South Florida
Colin - Bermuda
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1319. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2010
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

Honest I am sick of hearing about "reliable computer models", in my opinion this wave has a good shot to develop!

Good Point.
There really are no "reliable Models" beyond 48 hrs., and even then...
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1318. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


There was a reason I made that prediction, btw. The two years are frighteningly similar.


Yes, its almost freaky, the El Niño and La Niña transition was almost identical.
I just hope 2010 doesn't turn out to be as deadly as 98.
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Quoting JLPR2:
1296. TORMENTOSO83 9:30 PM AST on August 18, 2010

Now, now...
Ignora al odioso, no hay necesidad de comenzar una discusion. ^^
I need to use a translator for Spanish but even without one I have to agree with you since I can get the gist of what you are saying to him(her).
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Quoting pottery:

You meant Couch-Paster...??


lmfao....lol
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1315. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


Hi JLP

Had it blowing down skyscrapers in new york last night......that dadgummed dust again....


That was actually a translation of an earlier post by another blogger, but eh... yeah

Anyway hi! :D
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Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2010
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

Honest I am sick of hearing about "reliable computer models", in my opinion this wave has a good shot to develop!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


You're right!

Well then, half, just like you said 2010 could be.


There was a reason I made that prediction, btw. The two years are frighteningly similar.
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Evening gang....lots of tropical activity to talk about tonight I see
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1303. zicoille 1:33 AM GMT on August 19, 2010

notice the names, that is the storms that impatcted land in 1998 and where they hit
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Aww! Your right...fixed it:

LOL! Perfect.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1309. pottery
Quoting troy1993:


Yeah Im getting confused on what is suppose to take place too..all of the models are showing Cape-Verde development so we all know SOMETHING is going to happen we just dont know what will come of it or how it is going to come together

I am pretty sure that the people who are applying the available Data into the Model Systems are scratching their heads too...
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Go crawl back in your hole. It's Spanish and he is from Puerto Rico. He was asking a legitimate weather question.

thank you a lot, PcolaDan!!!
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1307. JLPR2
1296. TORMENTOSO83 9:30 PM AST on August 18, 2010

Now, now...
Ignora al odioso, no hay necesidad de comenzar una discusion. ^^
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Quoting JLPR2:


Hello friends!! What has happened with our future hurricane?

There you go! XD


Hi JLP

Had it blowing down skyscrapers in new york last night......that dadgummed dust again....
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Quoting troy1993:
Hey guys can we get back to discussing.

To Cyberteddy and MiamiHurricanes09: What is exactly taking place with the development off the African coast? When is this development suppose to take place but i have been hearing debate as to whether PGI31L or PGI33L will develop
It depends on what global model you're using. The ECMWF and NOGAPS suggest that PGI33L absorb PGI31L, thus PGI33L becoming the dominant feature. After PGI33L absorbs PGI31L, they form into a tropical cyclone. But the GFS, UKMET, and CMC have PGI33L becoming the dominant feature and then, PGI33L absorbs PGI31L down the road, after PGI33L becomes a tropical cyclone. A very sensitive situation which is why I'm keeping a close eye on both features.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1304. aquak9
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
HOLA KerryInNOLA COMO ESTA TU MADRE?


great comeback!! :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually seven.

Bonnie (North Carolina)
Charley (Texas)
Earl (Florida)
Frances (Texas)
Georges (Louisiana/Mississippi)
Hermine (Louisiana)
Mitch (Central America)


NO WAY ! Charley is for the northern leewards islands !
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL! I remember those days. Lol, yes it does, put the pouch near 8N 12W and you'll be all good.


Aww! Your right...fixed it:

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1301. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually seven.

Bonnie (North Carolina)
Charley (Texas)
Earl (Florida)
Frances (Texas)
Georges (Louisiana/Mississippi)
Hermine (Louisiana)
Mitch (Central America)


You're right!

Well then, half, just like you said 2010 could be.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think 1950 is a good analouge for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes: Link


Yup.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That, is a good question. I don't have a answer, I'm still pretty confused on what might happen. I think PGI31L might become dominate. Not sure.


Yeah Im getting confused on what is suppose to take place too..all of the models are showing Cape-Verde development so we all know SOMETHING is going to happen we just dont know what will come of it or how it is going to come together
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Quoting FLNative45:


I've lived in FL my entire life and never feared hurricane season until 2004 when we had Frances & Jeanne within 2 weeks of each other. Of course, our decision in 2000 to purchase our dream retirement home on a barrier island within walking distance of the beach seemed great at the time, but now.............
You sound like me. Although I have lived in the Cayman Islands since 1973 I grew up in Miami and never feared hurricanes until I went through Ivan down here in 2004.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Just 5 of 14 storms affected land in 98 and it was enough to cause:
$12.2 billion of damage
and over 10thousand deaths

So yeah... :S


Actually seven.

Bonnie (North Carolina)
Charley (Texas)
Earl (Florida)
Frances (Texas)
Georges (Louisiana/Mississippi)
Hermine (Louisiana)
Mitch (Central America)
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:


Go crawl back in your hole. It's Spanish and he is from Puerto Rico. He was asking a legitimate weather question.
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1294. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
Oh....Pouch-Caster...:)

You meant Couch-Paster...??
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Quoting hydrus:
Oh....Pouch-Caster...:)
LOL! I remember those days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The map doesn't go that far east!
Lol, yes it does, put the pouch near 8N 12W and you'll be all good.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting KoritheMan:


Also agree.


I think 1950 is a good analouge for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes: Link
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1291. centex
Quoting katrinakat5:
centex it will be condusive but its going into central america..it could be a pacific problem later though...
No way pacific problem you might want to get your maps out.
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Hurricane please...
Hurry UP !
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Quoting troy1993:
Hey guys can we get back to discussing.

To Cyberteddy and MiamiHurricanes09: What is exactly taking place with the development off the African coast? When is this development suppose to take place but i have been hearing debate as to whether PGI31L or PGI33L will develop


That, is a good question. I don't have a answer, I'm still pretty confused on what might happen. I think PGI31L might become dominate. Not sure.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.