The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
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Who produced that map?
well...is your car better or worse right now??
Site is ignoring experts.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 182336
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
edit
nm was going off the info posted about maryland not actually seeing the gfs still safely out to sea
Start CPR!!
what is that suppose to be on TX?
Good morning, mate!
And to you as well!
Good Morning!
Think that Dusty Atlantic going to give us a storm this year??
lmao...okay!
lol
Whilst I obviously don't know about anybody else, I'm certainly not lending any credence to such long-range forecasts.
So yes, I suppose it is because I'm bored. Or rather, we all are.
wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy out lol
Sick People are the only thing I can work on with any success..lol
That'l be fifty bucks!
I think that "dusty Atlantic" is going to give us several storms this year. In fact, I'm so certain that the season will soon ramp up that I'd bet $500 on it. Those that have been wanting an active season will get it, but might regret wishing such.
Yeah that curve happens pretty abruptly but a lot of that will also depend on strength.
And Goodnight!
Unless I can't sleep like last night, in that case I might take a look at the blog later. XD
yea we can throw these runs out for something that hasnt even developed
I don't wish for it anymore....but if it is coming....i want to see it coming from a long way off.....that's why I hang out with all you smart people....lol
Yup still plenty of time for model cha cha.
See you in an hour....or good night!!
Trust me, man. There are some rather obvious signals in the synoptic scale pattern that suggests things will get active, and soon. You know that famous storm parade in 1995 or 1998? I think you're likely to see such this year.
5 major hurricanes? Check. Something will give with the enormity of the heat throughout our basin.
If it doesn't, we will have one HELL of a winter.
Totally agree. The turn is way too sharp and I really do not see anything out there that will cause such a pronounced turn
Good night all...
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