The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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i think we may see red at the next two
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:



are you wanting a other 24hr banned?
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Not liking the NAM, shoeing panhandle and S. E. Gulf early next week
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Seriously people, we don't know if it's gonna be a fish storm or not, so hang on and sit tight until this thing develops a LLC, then we will see where it goes. Until then, quit calling this wave a fish please.
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Seems the young'ns seem to find it necessary to post a negative about a post, just to post something, although it is just an opinion.
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can you guys plzs stop Quoteing jason2010xxxx: this bigets fish caster on earth plzs
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am sending nhc some raw fish i hop they like it
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1815. xcool
Gearsts HE NOTT
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1814. xcool
i hope at 2'00am we have invest 95L
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1812. Gearsts
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
Bermuda will not get hit at all..the storm will be to the east side of bermuda all fish storm here.
Are you trolling?
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Look at the big mama low to da north. That models is re-amplifying the troughiness on the east coast. Of Note, strong moderate to strong La Nina's tend to favor more poleward tracks.


actually that is not necessarily true

2006 had an El Nino and all of the CV storms went out to sea

1998 was a La Nina and 2 systems made it across the Atlantic (Bonnie and Georges)

2007 was also a La Nina and showed no storm recurving and a very powerful ridge

2008 had a strong La Nina and had Ike make it across into the Gulf of Mexico
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Quoting xcool:
we need a invest

When do you think they will name/label the invest in the east atlantic?
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1807. robj144
Quoting robj144:


As that correct? Where's the Labor Day Storm of 1935 that struck The Keys?


Sorry... nevermind. I can't read apparently... it's August storms. Didn't see that when I read it the first time. Also, I can't spell either... :)
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1805. xcool
we need a invest
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Can you post one for Florida?
------
El Conando, the Hebert boxes are for FL, probability of a cyclone going there.

The Texas Hebert lanes are just analysis for TX.
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Quoting JRRP:
a bit more north on this run
now

18z


Look at the big mama low to da north. That model is re-amplifying the troughiness on the east coast. Of Note, strong moderate to strong La Nina's tend to favor more poleward tracks.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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wow... so many posts for not having anything to really talk about....lots of new names on here...I am starting to figure out who the trolls are. It's going to be a mess when we do get a real storm to watch.
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1799. xcool
we need a invest
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1798. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1797. JRRP
NGP
60 hrs
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1796. robj144
Quoting redwagon:
And here's a list of major hurricanes (category-3, -4 and -5) that struck Mexico and the U.S. Gulf Coast in August between 1851 and 2006, historical August tracks.

Stolen from WU years and years ago, from SciGuy and Eric Berger:



As that correct? Where's the Labor Day Storm of 1935 that struck The Keys?
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What koolaid are we sipping, again?

Tropics are politics now on WU?
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1793. Gearsts
Quoting thelmores:
Seems very little doubt we should had TD6 sooner than later! Also, the wave still over Africa may even be more impressive!

Cave Verde season is well underway!

EH uh?
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1785. btwntx08 4:40 AM GMT on August 20, 2010

eh let him/her/it be

you know what they say "ignorance is bliss"
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good night everyone!
night
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Seems very little doubt we should have TD6 sooner than later! Also, the wave still over Africa may even be more impressive!

Cave Verde season is well underway!

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Good night everyone!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Uh oh



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Quoting Levi32:


Posted by redwagon on the last page:



Can you post one for Florida?
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Good Night Everyone! Keep on sipping the Kool Aid
bye
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Quoting Tazmanian:
wow this guy turn in too a troll


from Meteorologist Kevin Martin,

Last time this happened a few helped out monthly and yes it did help but you know what a few out of the many that visit this site is not going to be enough and if you all do not help out this site will NOT come back on.

This site now costs over $300 a month to run and it will cost even more down the line when and if more viewers hit. I really hate to do this but I have spent since 1999 doing a free service and if you think I am doing this for my health you are crazy.

This site has done nothing but stressed me out since I got married and me having to stay on this and spend endless hours on it for free and possibly ruining my marriage to keep YOU alive just will not be happening anymore if I do not get some help.

If you donate to those idiots at the Red Cross and you don't even know where it is going to and who it is helping (for real they keep 90% of it) then you donate here as well because the SCWXA saves lives, and many of you have said so.

This is it, I am done with the free stuff only to kill my own health. I'm only almost 26th on August 29th but with the stress levels I have to get this site somewhere I am realistically around 60 years of age and I have these nice 50 or so gray hairs to prove it.

I am SO SORRY that this country was now born for HAND ME DOWNS. You think everything should be given to you, hell look at how this country is with the wanting government handouts etc and I refuse to get a grant to be one of them so yes, SCWXA IS NOT A HANDOUT anymore.

Bottom Line and I am TRULY sorry for this to an loyal friends;

If you do not help GET THE HELL OFF THE SITE AND DO NOT COME BACK.

As for the local media outlets. They will get what is coming to them shortly, I guarantee it. Blacklisting the life-saving stuff the SCWXA provides for their big boobs, big asses, and blond hair will NOT pass and oh yes, they'll be getting what it coming to them for that.

I need a number of people at $15 a month in donations to the SCWXA to continue this. I need a large number to continue this project and I will gather a list. This service is not cheap and it is draining me heath-wise and fund wise to keep this new outline.

If you want to help say so and I will put you on the list. If there is enough by September 1st, 2010 then the site will open for the coming season and onward but if not .... CONSIDER IT GONE and the reason it will be gone is not being selfish, but YOU being selfish. The donation need has been there all Summer season since we got the new site and not one of you went for it.

DO NOT DONATE NOW. This is a LIST you will be on and when 9/1/10 comes around if enough people were gathered for a $15 a month donation then the site will come back. If you have a business or product then you'll be in the donation list the site will put up and it will be a link on the sponsors page but this is it.

I'm not killing myself, marriage, or anything else because no one wants to help and we can give MILLIONS to a bunch of greedy SOBs at the Red Cross and not someone who is providing something you enjoy.

If you cannot donate because you do not have a job or whatever then that is fine. Many GREATS are shutting down because of the downed economy and SCWXA WILL BE ONE OF THEM.

Contact me if interested, if not ... LEAVE.



Link




then why did you even make it LOL
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Good Night Everyone! Keep on sipping the Kool Aid
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Francis Wasn't a major Hurricane in the Gulf why Is it there? Good Night Everyone I think we'll wake up to a depression in the Pacific. Maybe it will entertain us until Danielle
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dont look at me am this a bloger lol
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.