95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't recall the post# either but it said he won a NEW CAR.


a hot wheel red Ferrari.
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1385. Levi32
12z Canadian ensembles mean MSLP....red numbers indicate the locations of surface low centers on individual ensemble members. Check out how many of them take TD 6 to at least Bermuda's longitude (65w) and still south of 35N. There is plenty of room for Bermuda to get in the game on this. Also interesting is the cluster of 4 members taking the storm close to North Carolina. The moral is that there is plenty of room in this complex pattern for TD 6 to get farther west. I'm not saying the United States, but at least Bermuda should still be worried about this one and keep an eye on its track over the next several days.

CMC ensemble mean MSLP + member low positions Day 10:

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Well been gone almost all day come back,and we have T.D 6.However I belive this little bugger will be out to sea.However the same cannot be said for it's partner in crime(PGI34L)as I belive ridging will build back in and stir it west.Just my opinion.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Hey read back some and you will find that you won a Door Prize for making that call.

Can't recall post#

Don't recall the post# either but it said he won a NEW CAR.
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I'm out now but back later. BFN
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Please TD 6,

Come and visit us in tne northern leewards islands, Please...
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1380. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296


if this gfs verifies the end of this run will be much further west than previous run. Ridge building back in to north and no other trough it might recume a westward motion
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Quoting WindynEYW:
the car is free but the keys cost 250k


Ouch !
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1377. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Yeah, but I am Magnun CI ( Cayman Islands )
LOL, I hear ya!
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Quoting scott39:
Magnum P.I. Broke it in for you!


Yeah, but I am Magnun CI ( Cayman Islands )
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Afternoon guys!
Interesting model trend starting to show concerning a system behind our new depression. Looks like PGI34L.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


It was a NEW* CAR! Budget only allowed for a late 80s Yugo, I'm afraid.

*to you.


LOL !

Anyway, I'm in the US putting one of my sons back in university so right now I'm using a puter in the hotel lobby. Will log on from my own laptop after we get back from dinner.

catch you all later.
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
We've got some pretty nasty weather just South of West Palm Fl, here.
Wind gust to 28 mph.

Oh my I just went to Super Walmart in Cocunut Creek just south of Boca Raton and we got a severe storm with winds gusting to at least 50mph when we where about to leave the store.
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the car is free but the keys cost 250k
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1371. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Keys please ??
Magnum P.I. Broke it in for you!
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Quoting WindynEYW:


Keys please ??
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1369. wxhatt
spinning up

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Quoting DestinJeff:


E is the one "behind". That L at the top is non-trop.
i know i dont like to speculate we have some nut cases on here, but yes you are correct it would be E
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1367. Levi32
I would say U.S. can probably not be too concerned about TD 6 right now, but I think my main reason for bringing this stuff up is that Bermuda could easily end up in the cone, and that the pattern argues for a storm off the SE US coast in 8-10 days, somehow. That means, we have to be on the watch.
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TD#6 COC 10.3N/32.7N imo.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
D/E off to the fishes...



I wouldn't be so sure about Earl (if we get it).
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well btwntx08 maybe you guys are seeing the convection rap around and expand why you are seeing it moving WNW or north of due west


No, your seeing things.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31532
1362. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:
D/E off to the fishes...

Im so burned out on Captain Ds!
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1361. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, are models the same?


The models are initialized with the initial motion which I believe is less than a 12-hour average.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
D/E off to the fishes...

yeah but look whats behind
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
i have a pretty dumb question whats going on with weather456 ????? i have not heard from him in a while
I have been wondering the same. Evening everyone!!!
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Quoting Levi32:


I believe he's simply got a lot going on and has to attend to his family at the moment. I hope he has time to post soon.
he is really good
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1356. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


They go with a 12-hour average motion, and usually note any significant difference in the shorter-term motion.
Thanks, are models the same?
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well btwntx08 maybe you guys are seeing the convection rap around and expand why you are seeing it moving WNW or north of due west
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1354. Levi32
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i have a pretty dumb question whats going on with weather456 ????? i have not heard from him in a while


I believe he's simply got a lot going on and has to attend to his family at the moment. I hope he has time to post soon.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, you know it.
hey miami looks like we will have some wet weather in our area for the next few days
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1352. aquak9
Trust No One.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25762
Quoting Levi32:
Guys, I want you all to look at this image closely. The 12z ECMWF operational was crud and completely wrong on how early the recurve is. It will get farther west than that but look at the Euro ensemble mean. This is the 500mb ensemble mean Day 10....guess what that trough and purple colors represent off the SE US coast. They represent TD 6. The ensemble mean this morning has the storm coming west of Bermuda, and really too close to comfort for the United States.

The pattern is progressive so the storm would have to miss 2 troughs to make it there, but the troughs are riding too far north to recurve it as early as the operational run had it. The pattern favors ridging building over the northwest Atlantic meaning the troughs come and go just like that, without digging in much. A storm could have a chance to sneak underneath them and get caught beneath the ridging.

My point? Models have a poleward bias as always, and although this is still more likely to recurve out to sea than make it all the way to the US, we should still watch it and Bermuda especially cannot rest easy. Seriously.

Great obsv as usual, Levi..it is
way too early to make the "fish" call.....
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1350. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
How many hours does the NHC have to see a different direction in motion, before they change the direction on a TC?


They go with a 12-hour average motion, and usually note any significant difference in the shorter-term motion.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Not earlier than I expected but what the heck. Busy times ahead.
Lol, you know it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1346. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
06L/TD/XX
MARK
10.93N/31.88W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
We've got some pretty nasty weather just South of West Palm Fl, here.
Wind gust to 28 mph.
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1344. scott39
post-1329
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey Kman! We got 06L earlier than expected.


Not earlier than I expected but what the heck. Busy times ahead.
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1342. xcool


TD6
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
i have a pretty dumb question whats going on with weather456 ????? i have not heard from him in a while
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey Kman! We got 06L earlier than expected.


yup
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Hey read back some and you will find that you won a Door Prize for making that call.

Can't recall post#



Was it a Ferrari, red naturally ??
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Quoting Levi32:
Guys, I want you all to look at this image closely. The 12z ECMWF operational was crud and completely wrong on how early the recurve is. It will get farther west than that but look at the Euro ensemble mean. This is the 500mb ensemble mean Day 10....guess what that trough and purple colors represent off the SE US coast. They represent TD 6. The ensemble mean this morning has the storm coming west of Bermuda, and really too close to comfort for the United States. The pattern is progressive so the storm would have to miss 2 troughs to make it there, but the troughs are riding too far north to recurve it as early as the operational run had it. The pattern favors ridging building over the northwest Atlantic meaning the troughs come and go just like that, without digging in much. A storm could have a chance to sneak underneath them and get caught beneath the ridging.

My point? Models have a poleward bias as always, and although this is still more likely to recurve out to sea than make it all the way to the US, we should still watch it and Bermuda especially cannot rest easy. Seriously.

hey levi glad to see ya
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good evening to you too. Just stepped off the plane and thought I would check in. Interesting evening on tap.
Hey Kman! We got 06L earlier than expected.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1336. xcool
btwntx08 .yep
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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