Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I concur. Still wondering, does anyone know which trough over the US is supposed to curve Danielle NW. I am voting its the trough over the northwestern US right now. Just want to watch which trough should do it.
dry
Convection is still on the very edge of the convection?
Can you please point to me a TS with an eye? I would think maybe, just maybe, a 70MPH could have one, but a storm like Danielle at the moment wouldn't. Also, no, it's not undergoing RI. It's definitely strengthening a lot but it still has long ways before become a Hurricane. 24 hours at best, but 18 sounds reasonable.
Well it isn't. There is nothing to prove that this is developing an eye nor undergoing rapid intensification. It is organizing nicely and may become a hurricane in 72 hours or so, but it isn't undergoing RI or currently hurricane.
eyes can form in stronger tropical storms
A lot of flopping at the end as expected. Time will tell, the future trough is the key.
I'm just saying. And my questions are valid ones. Why would you ignore what I'm saying?
Ouch!
I would be more like its strengthening at an average pace, say 45 to 50 mph winds by 11 PM EDT. Easterly shear is inhibiting outflow and much storm activity east of center.
Tropical Storm Fay
And all I was doing was teasing. I surrender with him.
Whic trough is first and which is second. Do you mean the first trough is the one over the NE US currently, and the second trough is the bigger one over the NW US currently? That's what I am seeing.
mmmm
If the GFS has the storm curving out to sea continually, or having a sharp right hand turn (Ala Alex earlier in the year) because of it's known cold bias, then why are we all 100% sure of it's projected path for Danielle now? I mean, I'm not hoping this thing hits the CONUS or any of the leeward islands, or bermuda. I'm simply not sticking my head in the sand as to the possibility that a computer generated model could be wrong. What do you all think?
And there you prove my point. When that happened Fay was a 70mph Storm, borderline Hurricane. That can be expected. Danielle is but a 40mph storm at the moment undergoing gradual intensification. There's no eye forming.
PM me...I'll gladly give it to you.
After some soul searching, the best projected path for Danielle should cover from NE Texas to the NE US, includin Bermuda! Talk about a large cone, you can't go wrong with that! LOL.
JK.
they have to be flagged 10 times
Although I am not saying this IS an eye I did say do you think this could be an eye or eyewall developing remember we do not always know the true intensity of these storms... for instance Hurricane Alex has a ADT number of a cat 4 hurricane (or cat 3 cant remember) but it was only a 1 at the time of the readings... so ADT can be way off and so if this is way off we could have a 65-70 mph storm????
MARK
13.95N/35.57W
Cause he can't take it when people disagree with him.
might as well be...
(dewey- it's AQUA. AQUA. As in, AQUA canine. Not AQUAK. I'm not a duck. I'm a dog.)
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Wow, did I really just say that. ROFL.
I meant the circulation is still on the very edge of the convection.
The whole enchilada
Thanks for confirming that with me Scott39.
By the way, if you are looking for where steering troughs are located at, check out the CIMSS products:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
One of the best links for tropical weather I have found. I have made a forecast based on the speed of the troughs between 0300Z August 21 and 0300Z August 22.
Taco :o)
NoGaps/animation
WRF/animation
ECMWF/animation
Here's some models.. didnt check if there old or not..
it is yet to be seen if they will dig that far south. I still believe that this storm will slow down while it get stronger missing the turn all-together. Please don't call me a Florida wishcaster I live in Arizona
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