Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting blsealevel:


Houma La
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hey can some one please explain the blob in gom? and what it may do???? thanks!!!
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2130. Relix
Disturbance out of Africa in the south has some turning. Looking good. It's pretty far to the south and probably won't be picked up by the trough.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...You're not on my ignore list. I read your comment, but I forgot to go back and comment on it. Yes, he might be doing that every time, but I doubt it. Trolls won't take away from themselves to make everyone else miserable. If it's easy, that's when they cause misery. All he has to do is create a new email account every single time he gets banned on another handle.
Yes, but from the other end. Think about how much can be made by the names he has had in the last 5 years!!!! just saying
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895

ok all read this part from 11pm



DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 315/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 230300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE...WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND
1900 UTC...HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -90 C.

That's -130 F, BRRRRRRR
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2126. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, it falls at the feet of the administrators. They are very inconsistent with their bans. They let some people get away with murder and others like Bordanaro get the axe for nothing controversial. Some people flag every single post that's not related to tropics and the admin sometimes jumps all over it and hands out bans like candy. It's just ridiculous and it's the main reason why I refuse to become a paying member of this blog.


Agreed, the - and + and the auto remove features just don't seem to cut it since not only the good bloggers get to use them. :\

Well, enough of that, back to exploding Danielle. :D
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2124. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK (EP092010)
3:00 AM UTC August 23 2010
================================

SUBJECT: "FRANK" Maintains Its Strength

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Frank (1000 hPa) located at 14.0N 96.8W or 105 NM south of Puerto Angel, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 14.6N 99.5W - 65 knots (SVR Tropical Cyclone - SSHS 1)
48 HRS: 15.7N 102.2W - 75 knots (SVR Tropical Cyclone - SSHS 1)
72 HRS: 16.7N 104.6W - 75 knots (SVR Tropical Cyclone - SSHS 1)

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
====================================
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Mexico from Puerto Angel westward to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana westward to Lazaro Cardenas
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Quoting DDR:


Strong storms,where are you located on that map?


Houma La
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Quoting doorman79:
May I direct you to qoute 2063, if i am not on your ignore list


LOL...You're not on my ignore list. I read your comment, but I forgot to go back and comment on it. Yes, he might be doing that every time, but I doubt it. Trolls won't take away from themselves to make everyone else miserable. If it's easy, that's when they cause misery. All he has to do is create a new email account every single time he gets banned on another handle.
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Well Jason.. I hope every storm is a fish storm.. haha
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
2118. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Wow
okay
Heavy rain working its way inland from Mayaro,another line forming east of Toco,its goning to be a wet start to the week for sure...

Getting a little breeze here now.
Must be from the Mayaro one.
No rain here at all today as yet. Plenty west and south of here with loads of lightening.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Not a very detailed discussion at all.


Nope, fairly straightford and simple though.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good night everyone!

2010 Hurricane Season ACE So Far

1. Alex - 6.78 3 Bonnie 0.37
2. Colin - 1.95
3. Bonnie - 0.37
4. Danielle - 0.33
Total: 9.42


what does that mean?
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2115. will45
Quoting Tazmanian:



there shuting down the chat rooms?


yes
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
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2113. Hhunter
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Not a very detailed discussion at all.
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Good night everyone!

2010 Hurricane Season ACE So Far

1. Alex - 6.78 3 Bonnie 0.37
2. Colin - 1.95
3. Bonnie - 0.37
4. Danielle - 0.33
Total: 9.42
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2107. DDR
Quoting blsealevel:


Strong storms,where are you located on that map?
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2105. JLPR2
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Might have been for taking up too much band-with with his animations. I don't gripe about it very often but for those of us stuck with primitive connections it does make a difference. Even some of the avitars can slow things down.


You got a point there, I remember when I had Dialup, a nightmare I tell you! XD
But the weather maps animations actually take longer on mine to load.
I'm still annoyed to see Bord banned and the JFV fans still around. :\
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2104. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2103. will45
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:


+1

I feel like admin has been handing out bans where they're not needed and taking a back seat to THE CHAT, where the Community Standards sustain serious violations on a daily basis.


those rooms are scheduled to be shut down
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
TropicalStormDanielle's heading has turned westward from 4.5degrees north of NorthNorthWest to 3.6degrees west of WestNorthWest.
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.7n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF *was11.8n*
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
*before NHC reevaluated&altered TD6's path*
22Aug - 09pmGMT - 13.4n35.1w - - 40mph . . . . . 1005mb - NHC.Adv.5
23Aug - 12amGMT - 14.0n35.3w - - 40knots . . . . 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
23Aug - 03amGMT - 14.2n35.9w - - 50mph . . . . . 1000mb - NHC.Adv.6

Copy&paste 12.7n34.1w-13.2n34.6w, 13.2n34.6w-13.4n35.1w, 13.4n35.1w-14.0n35.3w, 14.0n35.3w-14.2n35.9w, hex, bda, sid into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, it falls at the feet of the administrators. They are very inconsistent with their bans. They let some people get away with murder and others like Bordanaro get the axe for nothing controversial. Some people flag every single post that's not related to tropics and the admin sometimes jumps all over it and hands out bans like candy. It's just ridiculous and it's the main reason why I refuse to become a paying member of this blog.
May I direct you to qoute 2063, if i am not on your ignore list
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
2100. will45
Quoting Tazmanian:



not sure


was just posted scroll
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, it falls at the feet of the administrators. They are very inconsistent with their bans. They let some people get away with murder and others like Bordanaro get the axe for nothing controversial. Some people flag every single post that's not related to tropics and the admin sometimes jumps all over it and hands out bans like candy. It's just ridiculous and it's the main reason why I refuse to become a paying member of this blog.


+1

I feel like admin has been handing out bans where they're not needed and taking a back seat to THE CHAT, where the Community Standards sustain serious violations on a daily basis.
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Seems about right. 13 days out and a storm hitting fl. Labor day weekend.


where in the gulf coast?
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2096. DDR
Quoting pottery:

August 99.
486mm, just under 19".
Thought I was going to float away...
NEVER got as much as you have in a month!

Wow
okay
Heavy rain working its way inland from Mayaro,another line forming east of Toco,its goning to be a wet start to the week for sure...
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Quoting will45:


its not him Dan it is the e letter idiot


Okay, lost me on that one.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Where's the Forecast Discussion for 11p.m EDT?



not sure
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2090. xcool
wunderkidcayman .yea
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting blsealevel:
Where u at on the coast B?
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 35.9W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH...85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT... NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/HOGSETT
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I think the NHC has the COC too far NE of where I think it really is maybe tomrrow when we get the ASCAT and the WINDSAT it will tell
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Quoting canehater1:
I know Cantore was on Bermuda for a close call a couple years back...
To bad Cantore coudn't go a few miles south of the border for Alex.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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