Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yea i see it on that one getting close tho
Sleep well.
The sky has got quiet...
WOW!!! at least you dont have a Katrina in there!! I feel better now at least for now until Danielle meets her resting place... (ew that was creepy to say) like talking in 3rd person but not..lol
dont be so sure of that
consensus has it SE of Bermuda in 5 days, I think that most of us can agree on, after that it has just as good of a chance of heading towards the west and impacting Bermuda than it does going straight north and out to sea
Thats NHC track.. But if i remember right.. I think some models have Ike curving, but not all of them.. Just saying!!
You're right. It's almost there. Assuming it becomes vertically stacked with Danielle, she could be a hurricane this time tomorrow night.
i knew he wouldnt do that and ty for info
Almost as good a chance for a big hook to the left with a building blocking High to the North this far out in time also....JUST SAYIN
If models weren't pointing so far to my north I would be eating my nails. LOL!
the 00Z GFS is starting soon lol
thanks!!
YAY
yea i hope the non pay sites can update faster tonite lol
I think he posted a picture.
A little aggressive, are we? If the center were directly underneath the convection, I might agree with you. However, the center is off on the east side of the blob. The upper high is creeping ever so slowly towards the center of Danielle and when it becomes vertically stacked, she will strengthen quickly.
Thanks for the Info, the Laffs, the Bacchanal......
ok
Danielle move wnw at 12mph.
rain rain rain here in fort myers!! I love the rain so didnt bother me much other then that it just RAINED lol
I use IKE as an example because Broward EOC was fully activated on high alert and briefing the public on near future EVAC orders due to CAT 4 IKE's arrival, oops.
Personally looks like a hedge to me... and rightly, imo, believing the true center is on the 23/0600 point.
Think the automated is having problems with the anti-cyclone.
Click to refresh, so you have the points I speak of. Hit Trop Pts at the top.
Link
Goodnight all.
Thats sum heavy dry air.. ^^^
yes. please do.
It is NOT impossible for this to go further west ...I agree with you and there have been alot of storm tracks that have. I do realize that it all depends all depends onthe strength of Danielle and the troughs /ridging. If the troughs/ridging dont move according to planned this could play an important role also.
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