Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting BreadandCircuses:
It looks to me like that is the center of circulation, look how all the colder cloudtops are almost completely wrapped around it

The circulation is on the eastern edge of the convection. Its been said many times.

TropicalStormDanielle's heading has turned northward from 3.6degrees west of WestNorthWest to 9.2degrees west of due North.
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.7n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF *was11.8n*
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
*before NHC reevaluated&altered TD6's path*
22Aug - 09pmGMT - 13.4n35.1w - - 40mph . . . . . 1005mb - NHC.Adv.5
23Aug - 12amGMT - 14.0n35.3w - - 40knots . . . . 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
23Aug - 03amGMT - 14.2n35.9w - - 50mph . . . . . 1000mb - NHC.Adv.6
23Aug - 06amGMT - 14.8n36.0w - - 45knots . . . . 1000mb - NHC-ATCF
40knots=~46mph _ _ _ ~43.5knots=50mph _ _ _ 45knots=~51.8mph
NHC rounds windspeeds to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 13.2n34.6w-13.4n35.1w, 13.4n35.1w-14.0n35.3w, 14.0n35.3w-14.2n35.9w, 14.2n35.9w-14.8n36.0w, hex, bda, sid into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Not... necessarily a good thing.

Here's an excerpt on the history of 1979's Hurricane Frederic:

Frederic originated as a tropical wave which moved off the west coast of Africa late on August 27, 1979, and became a tropical depression at 0600 (GMT) on August 29. Moving westward with a steady forward speed of 18 knots, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Frederic at 1200 (GMT) on August 30 and was further upgraded to a hurricane at 0600 (GMT) on September 1, while centered approximately 650 miles (1045 km) east of Barbados.[1]

Although conditions were initially very favorable for significant intensification, Frederic began to experience the outflow of Hurricane David (which had greatly intensified in the same area just days before). Subsequently, Frederic began a weakening trend early on September 2, when it weakened back to tropical storm status: this weakening trend would continue for several days as the storm followed in David's wake. Frederic passed over Puerto Rico and approached the Dominican Republic, then suddenly turned northwest during the afternoon of September 5 (just as David had done before): it passed just west of Santo Domingo on September 6. Further weakening caused Frederic to drop below tropical storm strength later on the 6th just north of Haiti.[1]

thats not what I was saying...I don't believe the position they have "earl" in, I don't think he will be that far west at that time, if he actually materializes.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Is this ADT center estimate updated frequently? If Danielle is centered there right now, she surely is weaker than she looks now. Some of us got tricked by Bonnie, thinking the center was closer to its circular burst of convection than in reality. Could this be pulling another Bonnie at this moment?

I highly doubt that the circulation is directly under the deep convection. Its more than likely stuck in the right quadrant due to the 20 knots of easterly shear.

As Korithe was saying, if the center was in the deep convection we'd be seeing more outflow on the eastern side.

Quoting hunkerdown:
thats not what I was saying...I don't believe the position they have "earl" in, I don't think he will be that far west at that time, if he actually materializes.

Ah, okay. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Not putting much stock in EURO GOM solutions...It's been on again off again with that for a few days now. Seems EURO has done better this year when something does develop.

around 14.1N 38.8 W

the heaviest convection is wrapped around it, and the CDO like feature that it has developed is spinning around that area the strongest, so either it has a MONSTER MID LEVEL LOW or that's where the center is.

Because even though there is easterly shear, it's still breathing on the east side.. showing how strong the thing is becoming how it's literally fighting the shear

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE (T1005)
15:00 PM JST August 23 2010
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mindulle (994 hPa) located at 16.2N 109.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.2N 106.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.5N 104.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 20.5N 102.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

CoopNTexas HEY.YEP

Quoting leo305:
14.1N 38.8W

is where I believe the center is

Your fix puts the center in the center of the convective burst. I am fixing the center between where you are and ADT is, like at 14.5 N 36.3 W.

Those upper-level cirrus clouds usually mean the intense convection has peaked or will be peaking soon.

Quoting leo305:
around 14.1N 38.8 W

the heaviest convection is wrapped around it, and the CDO like feature that it has developed is spinning around that area the strongest, so either it has a MONSTER MID LEVEL LOW or that's where the center is.

Because even though there is easterly shear, it's still breathing on the east side.. showing how strong the thing is becoming how it's literally fighting the shear

you have got it wrong, see how the eastern side is somewhat flattened, that is from the shear. don't be fooled by the strongest convection must have the COC centered within, there are more variables involved.

Hey cooleo....Does "bear" watching. Hope models & EURO is right with Danielle...she looks like she's gonna be mad...like catching her husband cheating.

Keep her away from CONUS

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I highly doubt that the circulation is directly under the deep convection. Its more than likely stuck in the right quadrant due to the 20 knots of easterly shear.

As Korithe was saying, if the center was in the deep convection we'd be seeing more outflow on the eastern side.

I don't think its under the deepest convection, but I don't think its as far east as ADT puts it either (see post 2712). I think its under the northeast side of the convective blob, not right at the edge of the convective blob like ADT has it.

CoopNTexas .yeah i hope so.she bad bad girl.

Oh well. Not really worth arguing over.

Anyways, this wave will likely be our next invest.

Quoting hunkerdown:
you have got it wrong, see how the eastern side is somewhat flattened, that is from the shear. don't be fooled by the strongest convection must have the COC centered within, there are more variables involved.

I'm not just looking at the fact that's the strongest convection, I'm looking at the possibility that, that is where the strongest spin is located on infared

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

if you look at the northern side of the convection you can see the spin clearly, that's what I see, could it be wrong? Sure, but if it is then it's one very disorganized system, and there is no way that it is stacked, if it's stacked that's where the center should be imo

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I don't think its under the deepest convection, but I don't think its as far east as ADT puts it either (see post 2712). I think its under the northeast side of the convective blob, not right at the edge of the convective blob like ADT has it.

Your estimate seems pretty plausible.

also look at the banding it's developing..

Quoting leo305:


I'm not just looking at the fact that's the strongest convection, I'm looking at the possibility that, that is where the strongest spin is located on infared

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

if you look at the northern side of the convection you can see the spin clearly, that's what I see, could it be wrong? Sure, but if it is then it's one very disorganized system, and there is no way that it is stacked, if it's stacked that's where the center should be imo

I hate to tell you this, its probably tilted westward with height so any spin well-embedded in the deep-convectin is possibly a mid-level spin west of the surface spin.

I do agree with you that she's fightin' the shear, and fightin' hard like a true champion. Even if its not perfectly vertically stacked, a system fighting this hard in shear can gradually strengthen in the shear.

Leo,

This shortwave infrared loop may help you in seeing the low-level spin easier.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

Ignore the blue-colored clouds, those are the high cloud tops that distract you from seeing where the low-level center is. The black clouds are the low-level clouds, and looking carefully during the animation, you can see a swirl moving west and west-northwest into the east edge of the blue clouds. That swirl is the surface center of Danielle.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Those upper-level cirrus clouds usually mean the intense convection has peaked or will be peaking soon.

I would suggest checking the sheer maps, those aren't cirrus, but are feathering of the upper levels of the CDO. I believe that would mean that the anticyclone much talked about in previous hours is approaching alignment with the CDO, as this is evidence of outflow sheer.

Atmo or StormW, I believe that's your expertises though. Just my obs.

nice

Quoting errantlythought:


I would suggest checking the sheer maps, those aren't cirrus, but are feathering of the upper levels of the CDO. I believe that would mean that the anticyclone much talked about in previous hours is approaching alignment with the CDO, as this is evidence of outflow sheer.

Atmo or StormW, I believe that's your expertises though. Just my obs.

Feathery clouds at the top of a CDO is technically called cirrus clouds. The anticyclonic center of cirrus outflow is currently west of the low-level center right now because of the easterly shear.

off forecast poinst wnw move.Central Atlantic - Rainbow Loop .6.45

This blog might crash tomorrow with all the talk.....its gonna be wild.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Oh well. Not really worth arguing over.

Anyways, this wave will likely be our next invest.

That tropical wave, yep it looks good. Just entertaining thought here, maybe this could eventually become major hurricane earl eventually, that would be neat. As far as I remmeber, there has never been a major hurricane earl (cat. 3 or higher) before. The strongest earl I know was cat. 2 earl in 1998.

Earl is such a funny name for a powerful storm IMO.

TampaSpin 7lol

Quoting jason2010xxxx:

Jason, ROFL, LOL. That music on that video sure beats the local on the 8s music on the weather channel. I think Danielle likes that rock music. Careful, play it too long, and she might strengthen too much, LOL!

model support to

lmao

Gotta say as much as Jason gets picked on, he has a great taste for music, but his forecasting is still to be determined with Danielle.....LOL........nice job Jason.....Just kidding of course.

:0

update

Does this look like a NW movement or WNW? I know it's late,but what am I missing ?

wnw move

byee rob

Quoting Grothar:
Does this look like a NW movement or WNW? I know it's late,but what am I missing ?

Almost due West.......which the Steering graphics show it should be almost due West.