Hurricane Earl takes aim at Lesser Antilles; 5-year anniversary of Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on August 29, 2010

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Hurricane warnings are flying for the islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, as they hunker down a prepare for the arrival of the 3rd hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Earl. Earl, a classic Cape Verdes-type Atlantic hurricane, is a potentially dangerous storm for the islands in its path, should its eyewall pass directly overhead. Earl could intensify significantly as it moves through the islands late tonight and on Monday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 978 mb at 1:21 pm EDT. This is a significant drop of 7 mb in four hours. Top surface winds were 75 mph, and they noted an eyewall open to the northwest. The incomplete eyewall can also be seen on Martinique radar (figure 1.) Recent visible satellite imagery shows the storm has continues to increase in organization this afternoon. The amount and intensity of Earl's heavy thunderstorms is increasing, low-level spiral bands are steadily building, and upper level outflow is becoming more established in all quadrants except the north. This lack of development on Earl's north side is due to strong upper level northerly winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle to the north. These winds are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over Earl, according to the wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, but Earl is successfully walling off this dry air with a solid circular region of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 3:45 pm EDT. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Earl
As Hurricane Danielle pulls away from Earl this afternoon and this evening, shear should fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as predicted by the latest SHIPS model forecast. This should allow Earl to build a complete eyewall by tonight. Once a complete eyewall is in place, Earl will likely undergo a bout of rapid intensification, which could bring it to Category 3 or 4 strength by Tuesday morning. The ocean temperatures are at near record warmth, 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. Earl is now approaching a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle and the trough of low pressure that pulled Danielle to the north. Earl should move more to the west-northwest today, likely bringing the core of the storm over or just to the northeast of the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, and St. Maartin in the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Monday morning. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Barbuda and Saint Maarten--a 44% and 42% chance, respectively. These odds are 11% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 4% for Puerto Rico.


Figure 2. Wundermap view of the Lesser Antilles showing the NHC 5am wind radius forecast for Earl. Tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) were predicted to affect much of the northern Lesser Antilles, with hurricane force winds (yellow colors) predicted to pass just to the north of the islands.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., and the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of model runs have mostly pushed the storm farther from the U.S. East Coast. It is not unusual for the models to make substantial shifts in their 5-day forecasts, and it is still possible that Earl could make a direct hit on North Carolina as a major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. One should pay attention of the cone of uncertainty, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are in the 5-day cone. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 6% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada. However, five day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday or Friday, or Massachusetts on Friday or Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models predict that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, but it currently appears that Earl will not pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl will be difficult if a storm-storm interaction with Fiona occurs.

In any case, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves from Earl beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to very high waves from Earl (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Thursday, September 2, 2010, as produced by the 2am EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from Central Florida to Virginia.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last hurricane to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar's eyewall missed all of the islands, but the storm did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico (current down for repair.)
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also reveal that there is not enough heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L for it to be called a tropical depression. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Wednesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Monday. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a Category 1 hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle blew past Bermuda late Saturday night, bringing one rain squall to the island that brought top winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph. Danielle is now on its way out to sea, and will not trouble any more land areas. High surf will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. and Canada's Maritime Provinces today. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves today. These waves will gradually subside during the week, then ramp up to 6 - 8 feet again on Thursday, as Hurricane Earl's wave field begins to pound the U.S. East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Tropical Storm Kompasu is headed for China, and is predicted to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon by Wednesday and potentially threaten China's largest city, Shanghai. Over 16 million people live in the city, many of them in low-lying areas, and the Chinese will need to take this storm very seriously. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

Katrina, five years later
It hardly seems possible that five years have elapsed since that cruel day in 2005 when the world changed forever for so many people in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Recovery from the great hurricane is nowhere near complete--the destruction wrought by Katrina still scars the land terribly, and the proud people of the Gulf Coast still suffer tremendously in the aftermath of the disaster. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought is truly breathtaking, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. Katrina did do some good, though--it taught us that our nation can unite in the face of an overwhelming challenge to help our fellow citizens in need, and taught us not to be complacent about living in the realm where great hurricanes come.


Figure 5. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

I'll share with you my personal story of blogging about Katrina. I starting writing blogs during the spring of 2005. For the first few months of this effort, it was a slow time for interesting weather events, and I had trouble finding things to write about. I was relieved when June of 2005 brought me two Atlantic tropical storms to discuss. But as July wore on, and the bombardment of the great Hurricane Season of 2005 began--a record five named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, Dennis and Emily, both the strongest hurricanes ever recorded so early in the season--I was ready for less to write about! History was in the making, and the peak part of hurricane season was still a month away. I managed to take advantage of a slight break in the action in mid-August to travel for vacation and business, and the day Katrina was named found me in New York City. I was attending meetings with the Associated Press, who had just signed up to use Weather Underground as the weather provider for their 5000 newspapers. I wasn't able to follow the storm very closely that day, due to the all the meetings. Still, I had a very uneasy feeling about this storm. When one of the AP staff members made the remark, "It sure has been a slow summer for news. We need a big story!" I looked at her hard and thought, "Be careful what you wish for--you might get it!"

I flew home that Thursday afternoon, then made the decision Friday to drive up north with my family and spend a 4-day weekend at my father's house. The Hurricane Season of 2005 had kept me so busy that I hadn't made it up north to see him that summer, and this was my last chance. High speed Internet was not available in his small town of Topinabee on beautiful Mullet Lake, so I knew I'd be spending some slow hours blogging on his dial-up connection. Still, I figured Katrina would quickly recurve to the north and hit the Florida Panhandle before it had a chance to become a major hurricane. It wasn't like this storm would be worst disaster in American history or anything! Wrong. I spent virtually the entire weekend holed upstairs in the computer room, writing increasingly worried and strident blogs, exhorting people in New Orleans and Mississippi to evacuate. Every now and then, I'd emerge downstairs and say hi to everyone, then head back up to my cell to watch really slowly loading pages and write new blogs. Finally, I couldn't take it any more, and talked my family into returning home a day early. My wife couldn't fully understand why I was so agitated--wasn't this just another hurricane like Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, Dennis, or Emily? But, she agreed that we'd better go home that Sunday night before Katrina hit, since I was such a basket case. The next day, when Katrina hit and the full magnitude of the greatest disaster in American history unfolded, she understood. Indeed, three weeks later my wife headed down to the Louisiana disaster zone as a Red Cross volunteer, and she REALLY got an appreciation of why I had been so agitated in the days before Katrina hit.

It is difficult for me to read my Katrina blog posts again, as I relive those days and remember the terrible suffering this storm brought to so many. Let us not forget the people affected by Katrina, and the lessons the great storm taught. My thoughts and prayers are with all of Katrina's survivors on this fifth anniversary of the storm.

Next update
I may be able to post a quick update on Earl late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Vortex message suggests the pressure is down to 978mb; winds remain at 65kt.

000
URNT12 KNHC 291738
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 29/17:21:40Z
B. 17 deg 22 min N
058 deg 47 min W
C. 850 mb 1248 m
D. 65 kt
E. 141 deg 35 nm
F. 202 deg 60 kt
G. 141 deg 37 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 18 C / 1531 m
J. 22 C / 1523 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 20
MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 15:24:00Z
MOAT 8NM WIDE CENTERED 16NM RADIUS AROUND EYE NW THRU EAST
;




all so the eye is open too the NW
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This storm is clearly moving WNW now... look at the latest satellite readings and recon data.
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CMC 12z run is further west with Earl.
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I see all the arguing about where Earl will go, this is the anniversary of Katrina. Least some of you doubt how quickly things can change, or if you question weather you should leave, listen to this. It's from WWL radio, about 20 minutes long and it is a compilation of some of their Katrina coverage, before/during/after. Learn the lessons that so many died to teach us.

http://www.wwl.com/pages/8001444.php
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Vortex message suggests the pressure is down to 978mb; winds remain at 65kt. The eyewall is open to the NW.

000
URNT12 KNHC 291738
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 29/17:21:40Z
B. 17 deg 22 min N
058 deg 47 min W
C. 850 mb 1248 m
D. 65 kt
E. 141 deg 35 nm
F. 202 deg 60 kt
G. 141 deg 37 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 18 C / 1531 m
J. 22 C / 1523 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 20
MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 15:24:00Z
MOAT 8NM WIDE CENTERED 16NM RADIUS AROUND EYE NW THRU EAST
;

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
pressure KEEP FALLING DOWN EVERY HOUR MY GOD..ITS GOING TO BE A Monster OF A HURRICANE
when darkness falls something wicked comes
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its not moving wnw....plz.....
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Looking at the recon wind reports, it appears that they went through one of the gaps in the eyewall to the SE - there's no sharp increase/decrease in winds. I'd suspect 70-75kt now if they go through the NE quad eyewall, but it might take time for the winds to catch up with the (now rapidly falling) pressure.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
In analyzing satellite imagery, Hurricane Earl continues to pretty much maintain a mainly westward heading with some slight wobbles to the north from time to time. Don't see much deviation from that track for the next 12 to 24 hours.
is the pr doppler out for the weekend?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

looks nothing like nw to me at least... looks like its barreling toward those northern islands


I don't see that NW movement either. We may see this thing on the western end of the cone based on what i saw.
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Expect the advisory to be late since the vortex message has yet to come out.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
817. BlxMS
Quoting cloudymix:
Hello all. I asked a couple of questions back a couple days that weren't answered, most likely because they were dumb questions. Had no reason to post in the years I've been lurking because all my questions were already being asked and answered, but I just wanted to try to take part occasionally in the discussion. So I tentatively try.

Five minutes ago TWC Carl Parker said that Earl is running out of space to turn north, and that a U.S. landfall cannot be ruled out. There seems to be space to me as I remember Elena doing a 180. There's a space, and a weakness in the ridge; what is keeping it at 280 degrees, simple inertia?
btw I'm not a youngster, I am 56, my work is as a sound engineer, but i have been weather-addicted every day of my life. Hopefully this was a decent question, and thanks for any replies.


Good question and the basic answer you've got...current inertia. It is much harder for a storm (or anything else) to "turn" the faster it is moving. In Elena's case, the 180 she took was possible only because before the turn back to the west, she was in a prolonged state of drift...not being really "motivated" by any particular upper air patterns. Loitering storms can resume movement in virtually any direction depnding upon what new influences are introduced. I suggest that the "running out of space" context takes into consideration the almost required reduction in forward speed that needs to be present before any acute "turns". Rarely will you see a rapid large shift in direction if the storm is moving at a double digit pace. Hope this helps.

This is a preview of what your comment will look like.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

looks nothing like nw to me at least... looks like its barreling toward those northern islands

I was gonna say that too...The NW thing is probably just a wobble.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Tazmanian:



man this thing is going under a RI


no it's a XI(Xplosive intensification)
3mb in 90min!
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Quoting nash28:
What is up with the arguing here?

The models have been all over the flipping road between further west one run and further east the next run. Why?

They are having a hell of a time with the evolution of the trough coming out of the Rockies. How strong? Will it flatten? Timing with Earl?

For anyone to completely rule out a CONUS hit at this point is just beyond reason. NO ONE wants it! But you have to understand that the storm could deviate by a couple of hundered miles and then the whole ballgame changes.

The GFS doesn't steer the system..


Agreed. But I have been remarkably impressed with path forecasts this season. It seems the model/NHC have a handle on those, but still need some work on their intensity schemes.

I truly do not believe Earl will make landfall on the East coast, but that doesn't mean those residents shouldn't keep an eye on him.

Let me reinterate. The true threats will come with the systems AFTER Earl.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
upper winds do show it should begin the wnw or nw vector soon.


Fingers crossed.. I'm concerned casting for family on the islands here. With the rest of the season this is probably the lesser of the coming threats. Fiona is supposed to make a visit as well.
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Quoting maeko:


in a mandatory evacuation, they would likely open the eastbound lanes of i64 to redirect west. they will do this with the state highways as well. know your evacuation route. once you set out the authorities will not allow you to get off on side roads or go in the opposite direction to pick anyone up that may need assistance. they will need to be with you BEFORE the order is issued.


I won't be affected by that bc i live further inland in Richmond, just pointing that out though.
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In analyzing satellite imagery, Hurricane Earl continues to pretty much maintain a mainly westward heading with some slight wobbles to the north from time to time. Don't see much deviation from that track for the next 12 to 24 hours.
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HurricaneEarl's heading had turned westward to 7.5degrees north of dueWest
from its previous heading of 5.9degrees west of WestNorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~17.7mph(~28.4km/h)

28Aug . 12amGMT - - 15.8n51.2w - - 60mph - - - 999mb - - NHC.Adv.#12A
28Aug . 03pmGMT - - 16.0n51.8w - - 60mph - - - 999mb - - #13
28Aug . 06pmGMT - - 16.1n53.2w - - 55mph - - 1000mb - - #13A
28Aug . 09pmGMT - - 16.5n54.2w - - 60mph - - - 999mb - - #14
29Aug . 12amGMT - - 16.5n54.6w - - 65mph - - - 989mb - - #14A
29Aug . 03amGMT - - 16.6n55.4w - - 65mph - - - 989mb - - #15
29Aug . 06amGMT - - 16.7n56.2w - - 65mph - - - 989mb - - #15A
29Aug . 09amGMT - - 16.9n56.9w - - 65mph - - - 989mb - - #16
29Aug . 12pmGMT - - 17.1n57.6w - - 70mph - - - 972mb - - #16A
29Aug . 03pmGMT - - 17.2n58.4w - - 75mph - - - 985mb - - #17

Copy&paste 16.0n51.8w, 16.1n53.2w, 16.5n54.2w, 16.5n54.6w, 16.6n55.4w-16.7n56.2w, 16.7n56.2w-16.9n56.9w, 16.9n56.9w-17.1n57.6w, 17.1n57.6w-17.2n58.4w, nbw, 17.2n58.4w-17.6n61.8w, 17.2n58.4w-18.0n65.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projections upon the speed&heading averaged over the 3hours spanning the last reported 2 positions:
~10hours from now to Barbuda
~25hours from now to Maunabo,PuertoRico

New NHC H.Earl update due soon.
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800. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 1:37 PM EDT on August 29, 2010

That's the old one Keeper.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hold your horses miami remember the 03 at the end means data contaminated. So not a true reading


It would have to be a 23 for an issue with pressure.


FF:
Quality control flags.

First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
973

URNT12 KNHC 291557

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010

A. 29/15:40:10Z

B. 17 deg 15 min N

058 deg 26 min W

C. 850 mb 1278 m

D. 63 kt

E. 059 deg 28 nm

F. 138 deg 79 kt

G. 059 deg 52 nm

H. 981 mb

I. 18 C / 1523 m

J. 22 C / 1520 m

K. 18 C / NA

L. RAGGED WALL

M. C16

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 15

MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 15:24:00Z

;



thats old
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

looks nothing like nw to me at least... looks like its barreling toward those northern islands
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12Z GFS and esp CMC are starting to paint a nasty picture for the East Coast for Earl. CMC takes it more through the Bahamas and all the way up the coast [edit: north of FL]. GFS hits more north. 5 to 6 days out for NE.
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973

URNT12 KNHC 291557

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010

A. 29/15:40:10Z

B. 17 deg 15 min N

058 deg 26 min W

C. 850 mb 1278 m

D. 63 kt

E. 059 deg 28 nm

F. 138 deg 79 kt

G. 059 deg 52 nm

H. 981 mb

I. 18 C / 1523 m

J. 22 C / 1520 m

K. 18 C / NA

L. RAGGED WALL

M. C16

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 15

MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 15:24:00Z

;
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799. maeko
Quoting tropicfreak:


Hey watch, I'm sure keeping a close eye on this thing in case the track shifts west enough to make landfall on the east coast. If evacuations are put into place for the Norfolk/VA Beach/Chesapeake area, i can't imagine what I-64 would be like. Traffic on 64 is bad enough on the weekends, when folks are heading to the beach, now evacuations?


in a mandatory evacuation, they would likely open the eastbound lanes of i64 to redirect west. they will do this with the state highways as well. know your evacuation route. once you set out the authorities will not allow you to get off on side roads or go in the opposite direction to pick anyone up that may need assistance. they will need to be with you BEFORE the order is issued.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The extrapolated surface pressure was not contaminated. The minimum central pressure is 978.4mb.

Link



thats all most 977mbs
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


it is quite a bit weaker than it was and the circulation is still a bit elongated based on ASCAT



ok
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didn't they say there was a ragged 15 mile eye forming?

Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not all the pressure readings where contaminated.
979.9 mb
(~ 28.94 inHg)
The extrapolated surface pressure was not contaminated. The minimum central pressure is 978.4mb.

Link
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Tazmanian:



next time be for you say all gone plzs look at thing a little more befor posting


this is not all gone too me



it is quite a bit weaker than it was and the circulation is still a bit elongated based on ASCAT
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Possibly. At 10:10a.m EDT the minimum central pressure was 985mb. Now the latest minimum central pressure is 978mb. The pressure went down 7mb over a 3 hour span. The satellite appearance has also improved greatly. Earl could very well be undergoing rapid intensification.



yup
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hold your horses miami remember the 03 at the end means data contaminated. So not a true reading
Not the pressure reading. The SFMR wind readings are contaminated but the extrapolated surface pressure is correct.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
What is up with the arguing here?

The models have been all over the flipping road between further west one run and further east the next run. Why?

They are having a hell of a time with the evolution of the trough coming out of the Rockies. How strong? Will it flatten? Timing with Earl?

For anyone to completely rule out a CONUS hit at this point is just beyond reason. NO ONE wants it! But you have to understand that the storm could deviate by a couple of hundered miles and then the whole ballgame changes.

The GFS doesn't steer the system..
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
As you can see by looking now, you can clearly see why 97L was not upgraded

convection is pretty much all gone

It's so discouraged that it hasn't been given TD status... It gave up hahaha
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786. unf97
Quoting CybrTeddy:
978 mb found by recon. That's a 7 mb drop since 11 am.


Earl is intensifying rapidly and at this rate, it will be a strong Cat 2 cyclone approaching Cat 3 intensity within the next 24 hours.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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