Earl maintaining Category 4 strength; hurricane watches for North Carolina
Hurricane watches are now posted for coastal North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl continues towards the west-northwest at 13 mph with little change in strength. Currently, the outer reaches of the storm are affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, and NOAA's Wavewatch III model is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves are affecting these islands. Early this morning, waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet. Winds at Providenciales in the Turks were only 20 - 25 mph this afternoon, though Cockburn Town and Balfour Town in the extreme eastern Turks may be seeing winds near tropical storm force--40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent visible satellite loops show that the southwest side of Earl is getting eaten into by wind shear and dry air. The storm is no longer as symmetrical as 24 hours ago, and the spiral band on Earl's west side has been destroyed by dry air. Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show some moderately dry air to Earl's southwest, and very dry air to the northwest. Once Earl works its way farther to the northwest, it is possible that the persistent moderate wind shear will be able to drive this dry air deep enough into Earl's west side to significantly disrupt it. However, none of the models is predicting this, and Earl is probably large and strong enough to fend off this sort of assault. I give a 30% chance that a major dry air intrusion will significantly disrupt Earl between now and Thursday, weakening it to a Category 2 hurricane. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 - 20 mph for a day or so. There is no evidence that Earl has weakened, though, based on the latest pressure of 940 mb from the Hurricane Hunters. It is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.
Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are pretty unified in taking Earl 100 - 200 miles off the coast of North Carolina, then 150 - 300 miles off the coast of Southeast Massachusetts, then into Nova Scotia. The high degree of model unity gives confidence that this is the correct solution, but it is good to keep in mind that the average error in a 48-hour NHC forecast is about 125 miles. It is likely that Earl will bring a 15-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 15% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 13% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 5% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 8% for Eastport, Maine, and 14% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles.
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.
Next update
Dr. Rob Carver is planning an update late tonight, and I'll have a full update in the morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It took a day to get across Minnesota..
i think you are right SJ here on Emerald Isle we have to have a red pass card to show that we own property on the island when it is evacuated
I just hope when he leaves the Gene pool.. he does not take any innocent person with him.
HH is feet wet and should be producing soon :)
Ah and what's going to turn him? You standing on the Cape and going
"Fffffth.. Fffftth?"
Seriously. Look how bad the Trof is hung up. Unless it moves, and moves FAST, Earl is going to come say hello to a lot of folks on the East Coast. And not in a nice, neighborly sort of way, mind you. And it also seems that Earl's forward momentum has increased.
Something wrong here. Of course I'm in FL and don't have any storm preparations to make. Hopefully that's what is happening and everyone is getting prepared for what might come their way!
GFS started at 11:30
Hope you find that trough!
j/k
Thanks for the info Floodman. I was wondering though if this would slow down or speed up Earl? Fiona already looks like she is becoming part of Earl. She must be moving pretty fast.
A few things happening...One, the OBX is much less populated than Fla...Two, the storm is NOT heading to Fla...Amazing the difference in traffic when there is a potential for a Fla landfall.
Can you link that please!
The next morning, the news was all about what happened Charleston up through Charlotte.
Forecasts do miss at the last moment sometimes.
And for what he does, the OBX is going to be the only place to be to get what he wants...It's a real shame.
Good point, North Carolina coast is relatively less populated than Fla or Gulf, but New England hasn't seen a big storm in a long time. Weather Underground got a lot of new members around K, R and I. Another meaning for the word storm surge when suddenly many more people take an interest in the tropics.
Thks.
Its because we Floridians are StormJunkies! ROFL Mention a tropical storm & we all flock to WU....
TIMING OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO
BECAUSE EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE
WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
Yes could get very scary and dangerous for sure
Lol, true...Also, a very large population that has been through it before. Plenty of kids that want to go through it for the first time; etc.
Did not mean that with any disrespect, but this blog certainly has a Fla bias ;)
The people that could answer that best don't seem to be here right now (I don't think). You might try again in the morning.
]
fewer caps please
thank you for saying this. Floyd was suppost to hit Florida next thing you know hes hitting wilmington, NC and dumped 25 inches of rain over eastern NC. Little wobbles in track can mean a landfall in SE NC while a wobble to the right means no landfall at all. Everyone in the Carolinas needs to get prepared even if Earl does not make landfall for the next 4 systems lined up taking similar tracks as Earl!!!!
I'll give this a shot. I wouldn't be shocked if some of the energy of Fiona goes into the Caribbean, while the other part of Fiona gets entrained into Earl. Don't think much will happen though with that energy.
Dang it, Africa, STOP IT!
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