Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast
Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.
As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.
Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab
Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.
Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center
Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track
Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.
Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.
When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.
Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.
Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.
What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.
People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.
Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.
600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.
Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.
Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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WOW, you already know 98L is going to hit South Florida? LMAO!!
Hi HadesGodWyvern. I live in S. Korea, and right now we are already being impacted by Typhoon Kompasu.
And also, wow! Three tropical cyclones (in the ATL) again?
That cold front will not allow Earl to hit the USA but NOVA SCOTIA is royally screwed
...after returning from 3 great consecutive missions into Earl. It appears that the DC-8 successfully captured the rapid intensification phase of Earl...
EARL will be creating an entire new look that is for sure
I would take it that your list of essential employees is
Get out that list of essential personnel without whom critical business operations cannot be performed; give the receptionist, window washers and interoffice mail delivers the day off. And from personal experience I can tell you a few of your employees may refuse to evacuate their homes until they see the water creeping through their walls. And if all other options fail,guess on whose doorstep they may end up on?
He's been port of track all week it seems ...
Thanks I think...
I was talking about a "watch" not an evacuation :)
No I am not saying its gonna hit SFL. If you had read my comment, I am asking some of the people on this blog that are more knowledgeable, many of them are FSU Meteorology students, for info and informed comments on it. I am not wishcasting anything, trust me, after Wilma, I never want to go thru that again. My prayers are with the folks in the Carolinas and New England. Some of them have no clue whats about to hit them. Thanks
Link?
It is back to normal here, HOT, power is back on, and the sun is out in full force.
I just got to my apartment in San Juan and was surprised to see how the forest behind it was pretty beat up by Earl. I passed the storm in Eastern Puerto Rico, where it was supposed to be pretty bad and wasnt after all, so I was in shock to see how much worse it was in San Juan.
On TD 09... I guess its safe to say that none of the models out now are worth anything, right? I mean, they didnt call for it to develop at all and it has, so until the correct info is put in and they actually see it forming, the cone the NHC will put out is the only thing to look at.
What is you guy's handle on this new storm?
STBD would be a pleasant change... for everyone.
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
435 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
VALID 12Z WED SEP 01 2010 - 12Z FRI SEP 03 2010
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...TOUCHING OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MICHIGAN DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN THE DAKOTAS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. IN
ADDITION...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST BUT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE WITHOUT MAKING A DIRECT LANDFALL. MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THIS STORM...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND AND RAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST UP TO
DATE INFORMATION ON EARL...CHECK THE LATEST STATEMENT FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
SOLTOW
And that isn't even the newest one! This one below is only two hours old and shows continued organization.
Does it look as if this will knock down the intensity a bit as the storm approaches the coast?
"thanks for the updates. i love them!! I am actually heading to the beach tomorrow nite. I hope to just beat Earl there. I think it will be cool to be there for a big storm. Our place is right on the ocean in a concrete building. I can't wait to watch the ocean!"
I really hope she doesn't get to see more than she bargained for.
stay safe.
+1 Continuity of Operations is essential.
Here's our Economic Development's website that deals with COOP planning...
http://www.pced.org/demographics_data/subpage.asp?coop#hurricane
I just got off the phone with my very freaked out mom (who is in the Delmarva pen) who can't get on her computer.
I was able to give her lots of official information and relayed many of your hunches to her. She has decided to leave shortly with tears in her eyes.
Praying that our 100 year old River home makes it through..praying.
Thanks again to all of you-- I'll keep lurking and hoping.
Oh and now that I see 47ft wave height-- what happens when that much water is pushed into the Chesapeake Bay? Thanks again.
Here it's a little different the ODPEM prepares well for the hurricanes. Since June they have been promoting putting hurricane straps on your roofs, but the problem is that people always think that it will never happen againg so they don't prepare and when the hurricane comes and the officals say evacuate and head for the shelters only about 10-20 people do so and then they complain after their whole house is destroyed.
People, there is no need to be rude or condescending on here. There are ALOT of people who are new to this blog that have important questions and legitimate concerns. Please have some sense
This is Labor Day Weekend.
Lots of reservations/plans already made for going to the beach.
Why does 'movie script' pop into mind?
He's got some stable air out in front and a lackluster shear forecast, but this morning 98L's getting along pretty nicely.
Im thinking based on current conditions that the western eye wall grazes the OB, NC area...its possible though that the storm does make a landfall further north
Which river?
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