Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LMFAO
1. Silence. No birds, wind, people, traffic, airplanes. Just an eerie silence.
2. Chainsaws, closely followed by generators.
3. Mosquitoes. Lots of mosquitoes.
That bad air must be from all that hairspray Snooki puts in her poof.
I got a good laugh myself, nothing like comic relief during a serious situation. ha ;-)
Thanks, and welcome!
Where's the Pizza man..it's getting cold waiting for ya'!
Glad you are OK!
yeah, i see the same thing on the latest Hi-Res IR satellite shot. In strengthening major hurricanes, substantial wobbles are likely. However, IMO, Earl is steadily gaining more of a northern movement compared to a western movement.
ROFLMAO!!
Heck it happened during Ivan when the I-10 Bridge in Pensacola got knocked out on one side by a 50 ft wave killing a semi driver on it as pieces collapsed into the Northern side of Pensacola Bay. I had to drive that at the time when I was getting my Bachelors at UWF on a two lane bridge on a U.S interstate. They didn't complete the new bridge till the end of my Bachelors degree. The commute was a nightmare having to drive from Okaloosa County:0
A bald head is more aerodynamic and can handle wind better. LOL
ROFL that picture is in my hometown Houma, LA that was for Gustav. I was so sick of seeing the video of the roof blowing off at St Francis.
Good to hear, let us know how Anegada went.
The preliminary reports sounded like they got hit pretty bad, but everything's still mostly intact.
Thanks, but two years of tunnels was enough for most of us. ;-)
That is a great shot of what will hopefully be a near miss. I can (again, hopefully) tell my family out in NJ that they will only get some low TS winds. Thanks for that!
:). I did a quick google image search and i thought it would've been PERFECT for that comment. ha!
Watch..yes..we are all doing that (note I had the details of said wobbles down to the minute from sat loops..but don't determine a direction with every wobble..we get sea sick trying to swing too hard port and then starboard!
Click on the link below, turn on the Lat/Long lines and manually move the frames forward and backward and you can clearly see the change in direction.
Water Vapor in Motion
Of course the question is will it be a temporary wobble or a more prolonged change in direction.
I remember that terrible scene with the bridge. Yes...it was a nightmare to cross.
Current Steering for Earl:
Fluctuations in its directions should be expected as it "bumps" or "tests" the DLM High to its East for further weaknesses in order to deflect to the right. Due to the current steering I believe it should be heading NW to NNW... if not N if the High is not strong enough on its western periphery.
You can also see that the TROF currently over C CONUS and Earl should feel more its effects as it gains latitude and which should also induce a quicker forward motion in the next 24HRs.
Thankfully we have HH out there so they should validate for us if a more northerly component to its motion is materializing as hinted by SAT obs.
They were going to build an airport out in the Everglades back in the 70's. Environmentalist put a stop to it 'cause it would disrupt water flow in the Everglades with all of the roads and traffic etc that would have moved out that way. There is a super long runway out there called TNT that is used only for training puposes. I haven't landed there yet, but I will try it out soon.
No doubt that the turn to the north has begun. Could be great news if this trend continues or not if it is short lived.
You can definitely see that there is a significant Northern component in the movement in the last several frames on the radar...agreed.
Spoken like a true liberal......
We? you have a mouse in your pocket?
lol now that's funny.
Excellent commentary...
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