Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
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With Danielle a few days ago (wow, just a few days!) I offered the term quasi-annular for storms that look annular but don't meet the characteristics. My rationale is that there has to be a transition period from classic hurricane to annular, and that some storms storms start to transition and take on the appearance, but never make it there. Earl is starting to take on the appearance but, IMHO, is far from it. He might be a candidate for quasi-annular, though.
Wooom, Woooom, Woooom we could hear it in the distance, power flickered three times, and now we are all powerless.
Jacksonville
They *rarely* forecast a storm to make it that high, but they do mention the possibility in some storms.
Looks fearsome...
One can see that Lil T-storm that came thru here aquak9.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Also on the Long Range radar.
Hurricane Ike actually formed two days ago today (two years to the minute from the first advisory on Gaston), so technically, we are still two storms down from 2008. Hermine might form somewhat soon, but 2008 developed Josephine the next day as well.
Dont label me.
Im not the one who made it.
Jacksonville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
(7:50 pm EDT)
2350 GMT on 09/01/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 44.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 54.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 29.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 12 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 9.4 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 160 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.54 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.9 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 94.1 °F
This is the closest one I could find.
Does anyone have a link to the animated predictions map from FNMOC? Tried searching the site but as a layman, I do not really know what I'm looking for, and the orignal link I have from here is in my navy.mil email.
George
Radios and TVs can run via the proper adapter if they are DC powered. For small AC items, you have to use an inverter.
As for a fridge, probably not unless it's one of the solid state types.
I use my gen set for the fridge and chest freezer.
See my post 1004.
I do seem to recall reading that transition to annular occurs during or shortly after an EWRC. It is almost like the entire core turns into a huge eyewall.
the winds earl is producing in the higher levels of the atmosphere are dam well into CAT 5 intensity
Everyone, The Barometer Bob show is on now. Find out the latest on Earl and friends. Just sign into the storm chat with your WU name. I am there now. StormW has called in tonight and is currently on the Phone with Bob, hear the great man's thoughts and prediction on Earl and Friends.
That would some serious shee-yat. CAT5's are Caribbean formations. Maybe Florida straight. You just don't see them in the Atlantic. (gulp)
Thanks, StormwatcherCI..
You can find it somewhere in here. :)
National Data Buoy Center
MIMIC TC GIF
Probably will peak around 125-130 knots.
the center is clearing..... an the eye wall is becoming very very strong on infared...
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
That is starting to look more annular. Don't think its there but he might just make it.
All that mass is being pumped out of center of Earl giving us our pressure drop...
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 54 60 67 79 91 101 109 117
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