Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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For now I am saying a chance to make 65 W. If it gets there then we can look at it again. Fiona will cause the sub tropical ridge to build back in behind it and Gaston is taking his own sweet time coming West. Lots of time for the atmosphere and the steering to settle down.
I saw a windsurfer in a NE in NJ. Was a having a grand time until he tried to come in, winds were blowing the wrong direction. Exhausted himself, fell off the board, kept going under. Fortunately CG wasn't too far away, and actually found him in the waves.
It really is crazy.
Here's your chance:
And here's your intensity:
Of course all this is subject to change.
LOLLL WHAT??
Really?
I mentioned earlier that I was on the USS Saipan and left early for the North Atlantic because of Charley in '86. I have pictures of us taking water over the bow....It's about 90' from the flightdeck to the water line.
anyone getting current pressure readings?
945mb (Surface) 40° (from the NE) 107 knots (123 mph)
943mb 40° (from the NE) 110 knots (127 mph)
939mb 45° (from the NE) 107 knots (123 mph)
936mb 40° (from the NE) 122 knots (140 mph)
932mb 45° (from the NE) 127 knots (146 mph)
929mb 50° (from the NE) 142 knots (163 mph)
926mb 50° (from the NE) 147 knots (169 mph)
916mb 55° (from the NE) 140 knots (161 mph)
907mb 60° (from the ENE) 142 knots (163 mph)
895mb 60° (from the ENE) 173 knots (199 mph)
892mb 65° (from the ENE) 162 knots (186 mph)
886mb 70° (from the ENE) 153 knots (176 mph)
881mb 75° (from the ENE) 153 knots (176 mph)
878mb 80° (from the E) 157 knots (181 mph)
874mb 75° (from the ENE) 145 knots (167 mph)
871mb 75° (from the ENE) 148 knots (170 mph)
868mb 75° (from the ENE) 144 knots (166 mph)
860mb 75° (from the ENE) 153 knots (176 mph)
844mb 80° (from the E) 145 knots (167 mph)
834mb 90° (from the E) 122 knots (140 mph)
819mb 95° (from the E) 141 knots (162 mph)
762mb 110° (from the ESE) 116 knots (133 mph)
740mb 115° (from the ESE) 123 knots (142 mph)
Here is a Loop of Hurricane Isabel.
Link
I hope you've already left. No need to wait until the morning.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
GFS and CMC have a 1024-1028 ridging feature building across Bermuda through 120 hours, nothing is out of the question with Gaston.
for real, geez, drink some coffee lol
They notorious for keeping even the Press out.
Celia did it with less. Where she was the SST was lower than what earl is over. Also 173 knots at 895mb is the strongest wind ever seen in this cyclone. Earl is definitely stronger now than it ever was.
I don't think that's at the surface lol.
Hm didn't get a sonde notification.
Thanks.
No, the cops won't let him on the island.
He'll put up his Hurricane suit and rush the line.
Let me clarify. A dropsonde deployed into Earl's eyewall has registered 173 knot winds at roughly 1,000ft above sea level. That same dropsonde found winds of some 107kts at the surface. So we're not talking about the peak sustained winds. Still, a storm that's generating 173kts that close to the surface can reasonably be estimated to be producing far stronger winds than 107kts.
Actually, I did some research on that a little while ago... they're not that efficient engines.
Holy Crap!!!
It makes me think no landfall. Pressure should be falling at the point of landfall.
That looks like the progression of atmosphere samples the dropsonde took as it fell. The sfc reading is 945 mb in the northeast eyewall.
Oh snap...
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