Intensifying Hermine closes in on the Texas/Mexico coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Steadily intensifying Tropical Storm Hermine is closing in on the coast near the Texas/Mexico border, and should move ashore late tonight. Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm last night, and could become a minimal hurricane by 11 pm tonight. Hermine's rate of intensification from nothing to a strong tropical storm is one of the fastest on record. It turns out that the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. The curvature and topography of the land help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process are the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has been drenching southern Texas and northern Mexico all afternoon, with radar estimated rainfall amounts exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall is attempting to form, but a region of dry air from over land spiraled into Hermine's core between 4 - 5pm EDT, disrupting eyewall formation. However, it now appears that Hermine has closed off its eye from this dry air, which should aid in intensification. Satellite imagery shows Hermine has vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops, and improving low-level spiral banding.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. The storm is steadily organizing, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Late afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine. Note the band of dry air spiraling into the core of the storm from the north.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft spent the afternoon in Gaston's remains, and found a weak 1012 mb center of low pressure with only a limited region of westerly winds on the south side of the center of circulation. Top surface winds uncontaminated by heavy rain seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 30 - 35 mph range. The airplane found plenty of dry air in the storm's environment, and there are not enough heavy thunderstorms in ex-Gaston's circulation for it to qualify as a tropical depression. The remains of Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning early this evening and continuing into the night. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
There is little change to the forecast for Gaston's remains. Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near its core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday. The ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, and HWRF models all dissipate Gaston. However, two models--the GFDL and UKMET--predict that Gaston will survive the dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola, and pass far enough south of the island to find a favorable environment in the Central Caribbean for development on Wednesday. Wind shear will be low, water temperatures will be hot, and the atmosphere will be plenty moist. Gaston could intensify into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean by the end of the week, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor.

Next post
I'll have an update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting futuremet:


It was meant to be taken seriously...


I think you meant wasn't? :)
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


well, that don't seem right.....but, then considering we are days away from peak, there isn't much to talk about.


It was not meant to be taken seriously...
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Quoting futuremet:


The models show nothing through November 30th...


well, that don't seem right.....but, then considering we are days away from peak, there isn't much to talk about.
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1583. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Hey man,morning
If you buy the gfs its going to be wet,yea starting this afternoon then more widespred overnight,definately alot of moisture coming in.

True!
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Was wondering about potential Igor. Models continue to show agreement on development. They take this wave west, then show a recurve. Might be something to watch again for the east coast. Time will tell.
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1580. IKE
Quoting robert88:
Gaston is done. Stick a fork in him. Radar shows there is no COC. Just an open wave that the GFS predicted days ago.


True and I remember a few asking...why are the models(GFS, ECMWF, CMC and NOGAPS), killing Gaston off?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1579. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Hi!
Going to be more 'hot' than 'wet' I think.
Rains should be here late tonight?

Hey man,morning
If you buy the gfs its going to be wet,yea starting this afternoon then more widespred overnight(accordingi to the met.office),definately alot of moisture coming in.
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1578. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Morning all
Going to be a another wet day here,day 1 of 4 days of possible widespred rain/T-storms

Metoffice
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards
Fair except for some afternoon showers and
isolated afternoon thundershowers. Expect some
showers overnight.

Hi!
Going to be more 'hot' than 'wet' I think.
Rains should be here late tonight?
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Ummmm...what? I see a lot more yellows and browns and reds than I do shades of blue. It's dry in the A/B high, of course, but that aridity defines it.

I see we're back this morning to downcasting the season. We've seen the birth of five named storms in a 14-day span, we had a landfalling high-end tropical storm just nine hours ago, our ACE is well over half of normal, and there's a very vigorous wave rolling off of Africa this morning with more behind it. Throw in what's left of Gaston, which still has a chance...and only the most foolish would say nothing's going on in the tropics.



The models show nothing through November 30th...
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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Gaston is done. Stick a fork in him. Radar shows there is no COC. Just an open wave that the GFS predicted days ago.
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1573. DDR
Quoting cctxshirl:

boss will probably be surfing if it's not like a washing machine out there.
stay safe out there in Tx
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1572. IKE
...HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS...SPREADING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS NORTHWARD...
7:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 7
Location: 27.7°N 98.2°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1571. pottery
Quoting mcluvincane:
Peak is hear! Its all down hill from here......

Good Morning...

Nah! You still have to climb, for 3 days....
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Quoting jurakantaino:
Yes, thanks to dry air. Which is covering most of the tropical atlantic.


Ummmm...what? I see a lot more yellows and browns and reds than I do shades of blue. It's dry in the A/B high, of course, but that aridity defines it.

I see we're back this morning to downcasting the season. We've seen the birth of five named storms in a 14-day span, we had a landfalling high-end tropical storm just nine hours ago, our ACE is well over half of normal, and there's a very vigorous wave rolling off of Africa this morning with more behind it. Throw in what's left of Gaston, which still has a chance...and only the most foolish would say nothing's going on in the tropics.

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1569. K8eCane
Im surprised Hermine only made it to TS status, what with being in the Gulf and all...and thank goodness it was nowhere near the oil spill...GOM is a BIG place LOL
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1568. DDR
Morning all
Going to be a another wet day here,day 1 of 4 days of possible widespred rain/T-storms

Metoffice
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards
Fair except for some afternoon showers and
isolated afternoon thundershowers. Expect some
showers overnight.
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Great point pat.Good morning Ike.I see the hyper seasoners are still at it lol.Well as i have said many times" iam a present caster not a wish or downcaster.Ike i thik hat this season biggest bust and thank God for it.We have seen little affect on the conus.Hermine will go down as the worst for the conus so far.we have had 8 named storms, with 3 of them being very questionable. the bermuda high is weak and even the gulf outside of the sw side has been quiet.The comment of wait to a storm gets in the carrib? well if you look at the past few years the only organized system to be named before it got into the carrib and affected the US conus was Ivan. Yes others dveloped and hit the islands and ca.But as we all know the majority of the people on here are just woorried about conus threats maybe they should look at the facts.Past history is a good tool that should not be ignored.So when the experts summarize this season if it continues this way will have a lot of factors to examine.Maybe they will remember this year and not spew out the mojo chart and models are gospel.I expect if the season has some bad storms affecting the conus it will be from the nw carrib and gulf is where to look.It looks like a close to home threat for the chances of cv systems hitting the conus are growing slimmer by the day.So before certain indivuals come on here and say this post makes them mad because i do not have a clue about tropical meterology: well maybe thats true but it also does not take a expert to read a model or chart and regurgitate everything it says.Like I said this is a present cast could still change but sometimes what the eye sees is better than what the unknown feature holds.Thanks have a blessed day.
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1564. surfmom
Quoting cctxshirl:

boss will probably be surfing if it's not like a washing machine out there.

*smile* Ohhh, I know his type -- he may wait for it to lay down today and be out tomorrow....tell him you'll meet him at the beach with a camera -- that might get you a day off and a trip to the beach... seriously though be careful -- car-float is not good, that's what Kayaks are for
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1563. surfmom
1554 - Ahhhh Cot -- your wit had ME on the floor this AM
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Quoting surfmom:

I would -- takes the pressure off, better not to have to fret about being late - and maybe he'll be kind let you stay home....

boss will probably be surfing if it's not like a washing machine out there.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Could it be this Friday, the dreaded Sept. 10, there will not be a named tropical system in the Atlantic basin?
Yes, thanks to dry air. Which is covering most of the tropical atlantic.
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Quoting cctxshirl:

Flash flooding in Aransas and Refugio Counties. We have another band moving over just at the time I leave for work--may have to call the boss and tell him I'll be a little late since my car sits low!


Stay out of the 'dips' - Lord knows it doesn't take much to flood in that area...
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1559. surfmom
Quoting cctxshirl:

Flash flooding in Aransas and Refugio Counties. We have another band moving over just at the time I leave for work--may have to call the boss and tell him I'll be a little late since my car sits low!

I would -- takes the pressure off, better not to have to fret about being late - and maybe he'll be kind let you stay home....
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Peak is hear! Its all down hill from here......
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Quoting CoopsWife:
Looks as if Corpus to Kingsville and up to Victoria is getting the worst of it at the moment

Flash flooding in Aransas and Refugio Counties. We have another band moving over just at the time I leave for work--may have to call the boss and tell him I'll be a little late since my car sits low!
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1555. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Could it be this Friday, the dreaded Sept. 10, there will not be a named tropical system in the Atlantic basin?
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1552. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:
Morning! Can't remember the last time I had coffee.

or I a good Teapot w/ Earl GREY.....
never, ever Sugar in my Tea......even iced.
Coops - Been Up *giggle* --just did the Pooch walk first - she loves being first at the telephone poles & mail box posts LOL
So Gaston - Is he or isn't HE, gone, gone, gone - no fuel or or remnants left? and the next one is named ..Igor???? Wonder what Baby Name Book these guys were looking at????
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lol KingDuji not dead
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11129
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
CaneHunter031472 there is barely any SAL but there is a good amount of dry air the only place that are not dry are the caribbean and the E Atlantic


Sorry I ussually confuse SAL from dry air. Nevertheless there is an enormous ammount of dry air, and like you noted the only areas I see with moisture is the caribean sea. I wonder if this will help Gaston or whatever is left of it to regenerate. I guess it will all depend on how south it goes, since interaction with PuertoRico and Hispaniola would dissipate the little convection that is left.
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Ike - no rain on that image for us, either. The whopping .4 we got from Earl didn't even make a dent in the dust in my yard...
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Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning, Ike, Cotillion, et al.

Running late today - first day of EllieRose's senior year, LOL. Coffee, juice and french toast on the sideboard.

Atlantic is not looking bad for this time of year, but I doubt Mexico needed any more rain...


My senior started school a month ago! But the south starts earlier and gets out earlier. Now it's time to run out the door, for them to catch the bus and me to my school, classroom of spec ed kindergartners waiting for me. Have a great day everyone!
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1547. Patrap
Corpus Christi, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

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Quoting Cotillion:


It's fine, coffee's good to me! You guys only seem to drink sweet tea or iced tea, I think? (Cornish - don't have sugar in my tea. Iced tea has grown on me, though.)



Sweet iced tea is pretty much a Southern thing - most of the rest of the country serves it without sugar - or sugar on the side. As for hot tea - well, mostly teabags, I'm afraid...

Weather wise, it's gorgeous here in the Tidewater of VA - 63 when I woke at 0545, light ground mist in the field. Should hit the low 80s today.
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1545. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Link

Ike I think I see your avatar in this video, anyways GFS shows another long range threat with the ECMWF.


Nothing wrong with a little early morning Zep.

You want some whiskey in your water....sugar in your tea? What's all these crazy questions there askin' me? Link
...............................................

QPF for the next 5 days....no rain still here....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1544. mbjjm
Herminine still looking impressive on radar 12 hours after landfall, they may have to reclassify it as a hurricne when it maade landfall.
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1543. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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1542. Patrap
Itsa cool Image and I for one am glad itsa inland instead of in the GOM Tepid SST's..

Home Brew wins over dem global Model things again.

Everyone looks East and as per usual, the GOM Spits one out under their noses..


LOL
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Quoting CoopsWife:


Sorry, Cotillion - I'd put tea out, but mine is always too strong for most to drink - kind of like my "Navy" coffee, LOL.


It's fine, coffee's good to me! You guys only seem to drink sweet tea or iced tea, I think? (Cornish - don't have sugar in my tea. Iced tea has grown on me, though.)

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CaneHunter031472 there is barely any SAL but there is a good amount of dry air the only place that are not dry are the caribbean and the E Atlantic
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11129
Link

Here is the dry air I am talking about. This is a great Caribbean site with cameras.

Hope you guys find it interesting.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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