Hermine drenching Texas; Gaston's remains less organized
Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Mexican coast 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas from the storm were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel near the Mexican border, and winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Heavy rains have fallen along a 30-mile wide stretch of the Mexican and Texas coast, with 1.41" reported thus far in Harlingen, 3.71" at Brownsville, and 2.00" at Corpus Christi. Radar estimated rainfall amounts (Figure 3) exceed four inches along most of the Lower Texas coast, with maximum amounts near eleven inches twenty miles north of Brownsville.
Figure 1. Radar image of Hermine at landfall.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hermine at 12:45pm EDT Monday September 6, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm Sunday night, and intensified into a 65 mph tropical storm in just 21 hours, an extremely fast intensification rate. It turns out that the southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. This region produced two similar rapidly intensifying storms in 2007, Humberto and Lorenzo. Since 6-hourly position records of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). The curvature and topography of the land surrounding the Bay of Campeche help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process yesterday for Hermine were the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere.
Figure 3. Morning radar-estimated rainfall for Hermine.
Forecast for Hermine
Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will continue across southern and central Texas today and tomorrow. Hermine is expected to accelerate northward today, limiting the potential for damaging floods along its future path. The storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.
Gaston's remains less organized
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains no longer have a well-defined surface circulation, though there is still some spin. Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to the showers. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10%. I think the odds should be higher than this, perhaps 30%. Gaston's remains will be disrupted some on Wednesday, when they will encounter the high terrain of Hispaniola.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that NHC is giving a 10% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development of one or more tropical waves off the coast of Africa 3 - 7 days from now. The next storm will be called Igor.
Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11E kills 44 in Guatemala
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E killed at least 44 people in Guatemala over the weekend. At least 56 are injured, and 16 missing. The heavy rains triggered fifteen landslides that hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage.
Figure 4. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.
Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hermine looks good for being so far inland.
Yep - a solid 250+ miles from the COC. Bands training over us now; monsoonal type conditions. I think we actually had stronger winds earlier, with some gusts that must have been in the 30 MPH range. I don't think it is that windy now, but the rain is coming down very heavy.
You're quite welcome. My pleasure. :)
TORFWD
TXC497-072145-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0026.100907T2118Z-100907T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
418 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT
* AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF RHOME...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
20 MPH. TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN MANY TIMES PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES
WITH LITTLE WARNING.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DECATUR AROUND 445 PM CDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.
&&
LAT...LON 3333 9738 3315 9738 3300 9739 3307 9755
3327 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 153DEG 15KT 3311 9741
$$
DUNN
Still looks great on radar. The San Angelo radar looks to have the best view now. Something seems wrong with the San Antonio/Austin station.
Gaston's breaking out the greys.
I think he's even managed to string together enough images of convection for a long SSD flash loop.
Well, he was.. before the image updated.
Still looking better than he has for a while.
Link
Ouch!
So you dont think gatson will "fizzle" out???
Like your Avatar a bunch and love and go to NOLA every chance I get.......ROCK ON!!
I think this is the most convection he has had since he was declassified...
It's funny how one rumor can run rampant.
Ex-Gaston still kicking this afternoon.
The 850 vorticity improved slightly and moved WSW over the past 6 hours.
Still no signs of a circulation on radar, and despite being over warm water, the eastern Caribbbean isn't a great place for storms to spin up historically.
This has to do to strong west to east flow funneling through this area.
There is still a chance though given the low shear and increase in convection that some slow development could occur. The slight southerly componenet helps too...
Possible
Ridging in place, less troughs.. I think the EURO has the right idea, Igor may be a problem in the future. Course it could still recurve.
i agree Miami... but in case we are wrong, I will eat the baked crow this time...
Hey Cotillion!!
Gaston not look as sick. Maybe we need to get NHC to post a thunderstorm warning or something!!!
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2010
.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT 1010 MB LOW PRES OF GASTON NEAR 17N65W
IS ALONG A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM N OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
THE LOW CENTER TO 14N64W. THE REMNANT LOW WILL PASS S OF PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT...REACHING 73W BY THU MORNING...77W BY FRI MORNING
...82W BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA SUN.
..........................................
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INLAND OVER TEXAS AT 29.3N
98.5W AT 4 PM CDT 996 MB MOVE N-NW AT 15 KT. HERMINE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND MOVE FURTHER INLAND AWAY
FROM COAST. HIGH PRES BUILD ACROSS GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN.
WEAK TROUGH DRIFT W THROUGH FLORIDA STRAITS THU NIGHT AND FRI.
~Nice :)
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