Major flooding in Austin from Hermine
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:
"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."
As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.
Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.
Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.
Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.
Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.
Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.
Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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some models develop it and move it towards the greater antilles
I asked a question about ex-Gaston, and someone answered it. I was thanking the person for passing along information from StormW. I'm not sure what you meant about "quoting this stuff"...pretty standard on WU to ask a question, have it answered, and then acknowledge the person who took the time to respond...
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2010
.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON IS NOW AN OPEN TROUGH
ALONG 70W...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W REACHING 74W BY THU
MORNING THEN MOVE MORE W-SW TO 78W BY FRI MORNING AND REACH
ALONG 82W AND THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS SAT MORNING...THEN
INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY SUN. A BROAD
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC
EXTENDING INTO THE FAR SE CARIB WILL DRIFT W-NW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND ACROSS MOST OF THE E CARIB BY SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.............................................
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W
EXTENDING N ACROSS MUCH OF S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE E GULF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THEN WEAKEN ALONG 87W ON THU. THE TAIL END OF AN
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE NE GULF COASTAL WATERS SUN.
OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
she was referring to the "rump" part of the answer which SOME people think is funny enough to quote but that I find quite childish...(snicker!)
Sounds like a good day at da beach....
That other area of convection is not part of Igor, it could push igor further south than expected
suppose their could be.
Anybody can't deal with that better stay away from the roast rack at the supermarket.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED BY IGOR IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Sounds like a cue for SRV "Texas Flood" --
Don't have it, but I'll bet Ike does!
Cued up...Link
MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GASTON COULD
REAPPEAR OVER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS
THE N CARIBBEAN.
Ummmm
Nice
Yep; only one. From Desoto, but Austin became his home. Appropriate for today, I'd say. Thanks, Ike!
I knew I liked IKE. OK, back to the shadows.
Hi Ike,
wow- i do not see a 'weakness' there for recurviture.
Got another one of his...love the guitar on this one...Link
90.7 outside my window...
yup that's a good one as well, but then again I'm partial to most everything he did.
Me too...now I've got his music in my mind....Gaston walking a tightrope....
You me recurve?
Maybe I should delete it***considers it***
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